Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment

英格兰银行和英国财政部目前正在与诺丁汉大学和斯坦福大学合作，对英国各地的公司进行一项试点调查，了解它们对未来销售、就业、投资、成本和其他结果的增长预期。这项调查以更及时的方式收集了英国企业对英国退欧冲击影响的预期，而英国国家统计局目前提供的其他指标平均落后于事件至少3个月。这项提议寻求扩大公司小组，以允许更大的数据代表性，在3年内从相同的小组参与者那里收集数据(我们预计会有进一步的英国退欧冲击)，并允许我们按行业、类型和地区对公司子集进行详细分析。我们正在收集的数据对于立即的政策制定、商业决策和英国退欧谈判来说是及时和重要的。该项目得到了英国财政部首席经济学家(David Ramsden爵士)和英国央行首席经济学家(Andrew Haldane)的全力支持，这一事实证明该项目对英国的决策是及时和重要的。这些数据将用于三个目的：a)研究：我们将调查英国退欧(和其他)冲击的影响，既包括不确定性，也包括平均影响。有了我们每月至少有2500家公司组成的大型小组的武装，在将这些数据与Amadeus的年度账户数据、行业和地区数据(例如LFS和Comtrade)以及英国国家统计局的微观数据进行匹配后，我们将调查一些问题。例如，英国退欧如何影响投资和招聘，这在不同地区、行业、公司规模、年龄和增长率之间有何不同？这与最初对英国退欧的热情有何关联，其他政策对此有何影响？公司的预期与最终结果是否一致(因为我们长期跟踪这些公司)，以及哪些因素似乎影响了这些预期？公司是否像对高级经理的调查中经常看到的那样，过于乐观(均值太高)和过于自信(方差太高)？该项目将产生对这些问题的重要答案，这些答案将被用来编制国际期刊出版物，因为我们在巨大变化期间利用了独特和及时的数据。评估数据的基础将是使用最先进的面板数据方法进行详细的经济分析。B)政策：英国央行和财政部都在对英国退欧冲击做出回应，对其对英国经济的影响只有有限的指导。由2500家公司组成的高频(每月)调查小组将提供我们(和其他人)可以用来探索不确定性的数据，这些数据是对经济状况以及按地区和行业划分的投资、销售和就业影响的主观看法。我们将引入专门的问题来评估关于英国退欧日期、贸易、移民政策立场和减轻其影响的措施的政策公告。c)数据：根据先前的项目，我们将迅速公布销售、投资、就业和价格情绪指数(例如，规模加权平均每月预期变化，以及一些频率较低的地区和行业指数)。这将对政策制定者极其有用，但对试图驾驭英国退欧进程的私营企业也是如此。其次，我们将为商业用户和学者提供在线匿名微数据，并为注册用户提供完整的微数据(保密)。我们对此的承诺突出表现在之前的项目中提供了广泛的在线服务，如www.WorldmanementSurfy.com和www.Policy Incretify.com。该项目将提供尖端结果，不仅体现在学术分析方面，还体现在它为英国财政部和英格兰银行等关键政策机构提供的服务方面。这是由于Mizen教授和Bloom教授跨大西洋合作开发的独特数据集，以及C-IS在英格兰银行(Thwaites And Young)的专家投入。

The Bank of England and HM Treasury are currently working with Nottingham and Stanford Universities to run a pilot survey of firms across the UK on their expectations for future growth of sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes. This survey collects expectations from UK firms about the impact of Brexit shocks in a more timely way than other currently available indicators from the ONS, which lag behind events on average by at least 3 months. This proposal seeks to enlarge the panel of firms to allow for greater representativeness of the data, collection of data from the same panel participants over 3 years (we expect further Brexit shocks) and to allow us to conduct detailed analysis of subset of firms by industry, type and region. The data we are collecting is timely and important for immediate policymaking, business decisions and Brexit negotiations. The fact that this project has the full support of the Chief Economists of HM Treasury (Sir David Ramsden) and the Bank (Andrew Haldane) is evidence that the project is timely and important for UK decision making.This data would be used for three purposes:A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.comThis project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).