The 'Brexit Referendum' and Identity Politics in Britain: Social Cleavages, Party Competition and the Future of Immigration and Integration Policy

2016年6月23日的脱欧公投揭示了跨越传统党派界限的深刻社会分歧，并制定了数十年来最复杂、最具分歧的政治改革议程。政府推进这一议程的方式将在很大程度上取决于它面临的选举竞争模式。所有政府都对选举压力很敏感，现任政府也不会例外，目前的政府拥有危险的微弱多数。政府的选举压力将在很大程度上受到公投后移民政治如何发展的影响，以及在脱离欧盟的过程中移民政策将发生多大变化。该提案直接涉及两个优先领域：“英国退欧和政党政治”和“对移民的影响”。这一高影响力研究项目将为英国政治在脱欧公投后面临的一些最重要的新压力提供新的见解。我们的研究有四个目标：(1)调查脱欧公投与英国社会中围绕移民、多样性和身份认同的分歧的出现有何关系，作为过去趋势的延续、短暂的冲击或根本政治重组的开始；(2)调查公投结果如何影响执政的保守党左翼和右翼主要反对党的内部政治和选举战略；(3)分析公投结果如何改变移民政治，这是目前该国最突出的问题，并规划该领域新议程的出现：移民融入政策和政治；(4)开展密集和明确界定的影响和知识交流工作，将我们的调查结果传达给主要利益攸关方，与梅农教授合作，向政治家、政策制定者、记者和民间社会团体通报情况。Impact工作还将积极吸引一大批早期职业研究人员。这三名研究人员在国际优秀期刊上发表顶级研究成果、领先的学术出版社以及与广泛的研究用户接触以在与这一应用相关的领域实现切实的社会影响方面有着长期的记录。我们将通过使用现有的数据来源来最大化金钱价值，其中许多数据来源已经由ESRC提供资金。与英国选举研究团队的合作将使我们能够通过现有的大型研究项目高效地收集新数据，提供强劲的投资回报。该项目分为三个工作包(WP)：WP1将汇集关于社会分裂和政党竞争的工作；WP2将提供关于移民和融合的政治和政策的研究；WP3将协调影响工作。

The June 23rd 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU revealed deep social divides which cut across traditional party lines, and set up the most complex and divisive political reform agenda for decades. The manner in which the government proceeds with this agenda will depend very much on the patterns of electoral competition it faces. All governments are sensitive to electoral pressure, and the current government, with a perilously small majority, will be no exception. The electoral pressures of the government will be- in turn- to a large extent influenced by how the politics of immigration develop post-referendum, and how much immigration policy will change in the process of leaving the EU. This proposal directly addresses two priority areas: 'Brexit and party politics' and 'Implications for migration'. This programme of high impact research will offer new insights on some of the most important new pressures on UK politics in the aftermath of the vote for Brexit. Our research has four goals: (1) to examine how the vote to leave the EU relates to the emergence of divisions in British society around immigration, diversity and identity, as a continuation of past trends, a transient shock, or the beginning of a fundamental political realignment; (2) to investigate how the referendum result is impacting on the internal politics and electoral strategies of the main opposition political parties to the left and right of the governing Conservative Party; (3) analyse how the referendum result is changing the politics of immigration, currently the most salient issue in the country, and map the emergence of a new agenda within this area: of immigrant integration policy and politics; (4) undertake an intensive and clearly-defined stream of impact and knowledge exchange work to communicate our findings to key stakeholders, working with Professor Menon to inform politicians, policymakers, journalists and civil society groups. The impact work will also actively engage a large group of Early Career Researchers.The three investigators have a long track record of delivering top research outputs in internationally excellent journals, leading academic presses, and engaging with a wide variety of research users to achieve tangible societal impacts in the areas related to this application. We will maximise value for money by using existing data sources, many already financed by the ESRC. The partnership with the British Election Study team will enable us to gather new data efficiently through an existing large scale research project, offering strong return on investment.The project is divided into three work packages (WP): WP1 will bring together work on the social cleavages and party competition; WP2 will deliver research into the politics and policies of immigration and integration; and WP3 will coordinate impact efforts.