Understanding the complex determinants of teacher shortages: an integrated approach

了解教师供应的复杂决定因素对于有效的劳动力规划非常重要。目前的教师供应“危机”预计将进一步恶化。尽管在这一领域开展了大量工作，但从来没有像本项目那样，以一种综合的方式调查这个问题。我们需要知道原因：对教师的需求增加了，教师供应不足以满足需求，教师供应模式未能准确预测所需的教师人数，以便采取有针对性和适当的举措。教师短缺至少在一定程度上是由政府政策造成的，也是由学校招生人数的增加造成的。政策措施，例如将教育及培训离校年龄提高至18岁、引入英国文凭、把收生准则改为教师入职培训、为教师培训的不同途径设定收生指标上限、向学校提供资助的水平和方法，以及增加学校数目和学校多元化等，都会影响教师的供求。建模无法在未来几年预测到这样的变化，这些因素很少在教师招聘和留任的账户中考虑。对次要数据的重新分析表明，最近教师人数的历史模式与经济和就业周期并不密切相关。因此，目前增加教师供应的财政激励措施本身不太可能有效。我们需要寻找其他方法来理解为什么有些人喜欢教书，更重要的是为什么有些人不喜欢教书。到目前为止，大部分证据都集中在已经在教书的人的动机上，而忽略了那些没有在教书或已经离开的人。理解不参与的原因对政策很重要，这需要考虑那些不把教学视为职业的人的动机和主观机会主义结构。这项新的研究将：1。阐明教师需求和供应的复杂决定因素。找出人们从事教学的意向，那些可能考虑教书的人，以及那些正在走上其他道路的人。3.描述这些未来的、潜在的和非教师的。了解进入教学的各种障碍。审查增加教师供应的政策举措的影响。找出最有希望取得成功的方法。这项新的研究将使用多种方法的组合来整体看待这个问题。我们将使用各种官方和其他来源重新分析教师数据，如1990年至2018年的学校劳动力普查、DFE、HESA、国家教学与领导学院(NCTL)、学校教师审查机构、研究生教师培训登记处以及政府报告。我们将研究一段时间内教师供求的模式，以确定教师供求的决定因素，并研究教育政策对教师供求的影响。我们将审查国际研究，以评估招聘和保留政策的影响，以确定有前景的政策，给予因果或准实验设计研究更大的权重。我们将对本科生进行调查，收集有关他们的职业决定、计划和动机的信息。这些结果将补充从二级数据重新分析中得出的结论，并为政策举措的影响提供进一步的见解。这项研究将对公务员队伍规划以及人力资本理论中关于人们职业选择的社会决定因素具有重要的指导意义。它将引起非学术用户的兴趣：教师工会、NCTL和教师培训机构。包括教育部和特许教学学院在内的八名用户已确认支持，并表示迫切需要对这一问题进行独立评估。

Understanding the complex determinants of teacher supply is important for effective workforce planning. The current teacher supply 'crisis' is expected to get worse. Despite the body of work in this area the issue has never been investigated in an integrated way, as this project will. We need to know why: demand for teachers has increased, teacher supply is not sufficient to meet demand and the Teacher Supply Model has failed to predict accurately the number of teachers needed, so that targeted and appropriate initiatives can be used. Teacher shortages are at least partly created by government policies as much as by the mere increase in school intake population. Policy measures, such as raising the education and training leaving age to 18, introduction of the English Baccalaureate, changes in admissions criteria to initial teacher training, caps on intake targets for the different routes into teacher training, the level and method of funding to schools, and the increase in number and diversity of schools, can all influence teacher demand and supply. Modelling cannot anticipate such changes years ahead and these factors are rarely considered in accounts of teacher recruitment and retention. Reanalysis of secondary data suggests that the recent historical patterns of teacher numbers are not closely related to the economic and employment cycles. Therefore, current financial incentives to increase teacher supply are not likely to be effective by themselves. We need to look at alternative approaches to understand why some people are attracted to teaching, and more importantly why some people are not. Much of the evidence so far has focused on the motivations of people who are already in teaching, ignoring those who are not in teaching or who have left. Understanding the reasons for non-participation is important for policy, and this requires a consideration of the motivations and the subjective opportunistic structure of those who do not consider, or even rejected, teaching as a career. This new study will:1. Clarify the complex determinants of teacher demand and supply.2. Identify people's intention to go into teaching, those who might consider teaching and those who are on other paths. 3. Characterise these intending, potential and non- teachers.4. Understand all kinds of barriers to entering teaching.5. Review the impact of policy initiatives to increase teacher supply.6. Identify approaches that have the most promise of success.This new study will use a combination of approaches to look at the issue holistically. We will reanalyze teacher data using various official and other sources, such as the School Workforce Census, DfE, HESA, National College for Teaching and Leadership (NCTL), School Teachers' Review Body, Graduate Teacher Training Registry as well as government reports from 1990 to 2018. We will look at the patterns of teacher demand and supply over time to establish the determinants of teacher supply and demand, and to see how education policies may have an effect on teacher demand and supply. We will review international studies to evaluate the impact of recruitment and retention policies to identify promising ones, giving greater weight to studies with a causal or quasi-experimental design. We will conduct a survey of undergraduates to gather information about their career decisions, plans and motivations. The results will supplement conclusions drawn from the secondary data reanalysis, as well as provide further insights into the impact of policy initiatives. This study will have important implications for workforce planning in the civil service, and for human capital theory about the social determinants of people's choice of career. It will be of interest to non-academic users: teachers' unions, the NCTL and teacher training agency. Eight users,including the DfE and the Chartered College of Teaching, have confirmed support and expressed an urgency for an independent evaluation of the issue.