Using Triple Access Planning to Enhance Urban Accessibility and Connectivity in the Face of Deep Uncertainty (TAP for uncertain futures)

基于预测主导范式的传统移动规划方法导致了对缓解拥堵等问题以及实现经济，社会和环境成果的未实现期望。有证据表明，计划很快就会过时，对未来的发展缺乏弹性。该项目旨在改进可持续城市交通计划，通过两个重要的新考虑因素解决人员和货物的流动问题：（1）三重接入规划-未来可持续的城市无障碍可通过交通系统（物理流动性）、土地使用系统（空间邻近性）和电信系统（数字连通性）实现;这些系统共同构成三重接入系统。(2)消除不确定性-在规划的制定和实施过程中，可以明确考虑到人口统计、经济发展、区位选择、监管环境、技术突破、出行需求和利益相关者行为等不可预测的变化动态。该研究项目高度合作，涉及五个国家的七个案例研究城市。通过一种方法论的方法，依次解决理论，实践，设计和应用，TAP的不确定未来的指导将开发和发展，补充现有的SUMP指南。该项目将通过推进理论并将其转化为可访问的，最先进的，实用的指导来加强SUMP的弹性和适应性。

Conventional approaches to mobility planning, based on the forecast-led paradigm, have led to unrealised expectations concerning alleviating problems such as congestion and delivering economic, social and environmental outcomes. Evidence shows plans become rapidly obsolete and lack resilience with regard to future developments. This project aims to improve Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs), addressing both the movement of people and goods, through two significant new considerations:(1) Triple Access Planning (TAP) - future sustainable urban accessibility can be achieved through the transport system (physical mobility), the land-use system (spatial proximity) and the telecommunications system (digital connectivity); together constituting a Triple Access System (TAS).(2) Accommodating uncertainty - unpredictable change dynamics such as demographics, economic developments, locational choices, regulatory context, technological breakthroughs, travel demand, and stakeholder behaviour can be explicitly taken into account in the plan, in terms of development and implementation.This research project is highly collaborative and involves seven case study cities in five countries. Through a methodological approach that sequentially addresses theory, practice, design and application, TAP for uncertain futures guidance will be developed and evolved that complements existing SUMP guidelines. The project will strengthen resilience and adaptiveness in SUMPs by advancing theory and translating it into accessible, state-of-the-art, practical guidance.