The Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2022

北爱尔兰是一个严重分裂的地方，许多政治问题都有争议，可能严重影响该地区的政治稳定。目前有三个这样的分歧问题很重要，可能会在2022年5月举行的下一届北爱尔兰议会选举之前引发激烈辩论。第一个问题通常被称为“爱尔兰海边界”或“海上边界”。这涉及到对从英国到北爱尔兰的货物进行检查的新规定。这些新规定源于英国政府和欧盟在组织英国如何离开欧盟时达成的协议。北爱尔兰的统一主义者（通常认为自己是英国人，来自新教背景）反对新的“海上边界”，而民族主义者（通常认为自己是爱尔兰人，来自天主教背景）则更赞成。第二个引起分歧的问题是可能就北爱尔兰的未来举行公投。它应该留在英国，还是应该与爱尔兰其他地区统一。民族主义者支持公投，自“英国脱欧”公投以来，他们的呼声越来越高。统一党对此表示反对。第三个有争议的问题与北爱尔兰政府组织方式的稳定性有关。“权力分享行政机构”由主要统一主义政党和民族主义政党组成的联盟组成。从“第一部长”和“副第一部长”的意义上说，有两位总理。从法律上讲，这两个职位是平等的，但长期以来，对许多联合主义者来说，担任首席部长一职并使其远离新芬党一直很重要。获得最多选票的政党可以担任首席部长。在2022年的国会选举中，这三个问题将变得尤为重要。政治家和评论员很可能将这次选举视为对选民对这三个问题看法的一次重大考验。在我们的项目中，我们计划通过在选举时对选民进行客观调查，帮助政治家、评论员和公众理解选举结果。我们将利用这些信息提供一个公正和平衡的画面，说明选民对这三个问题领域（以及其他问题）的实际看法。这将有助于公众讨论如何解释选举结果，以及选举结果的实际含义：选民在这些问题上到底发出了什么信息？在进行调查的同时，我们也进行研究，让公民认真思考这些问题，并提出建议。具体来说，我们进行了所谓的“审议迷你公众”，基本上是让来自北爱尔兰各地的大约50名普通人聚集在一起，了解和讨论这些问题。我们主要关注“海上边界”问题，因为在2024年的议会选举中，当选的政治家将对这个问题进行非常重要的投票。他们基本上必须投票决定是保留还是取消其中的重要部分。我们试图通过对这个问题（以及这个问题如何与更广泛的制度和宪法问题联系起来）进行“迷你公众”，并在普通公民有机会真正了解、考虑和讨论这些问题后，报道他们的想法，从而帮助公众在这次重要投票的准备阶段进行辩论。

Northern Ireland is a deeply divided place in which many political issues are contentious and can badly affect the political stability of the region. Three such divisive issues are currently important and are likely to be hotly debated in the run up to the next Northern Ireland Assembly election which is due to happen in May 2022. The first issue is often called 'the border down the Irish sea' or the 'sea border'. This relates to the new rules under which there are checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. These new rules arose from the deal that the UK government and the EU agreed when they were organising how the UK would leave the EU. Unionists in Northern Ireland (who typically see themselves as British and are from a Protestant background) are opposed to the new 'sea border' while nationalists (who typically describe themselves as Irish and are from a Catholic background) are more in favour. The second divisive issue concerns a possible referendum on the future of Northern Ireland. Should it stay part of the UK or should it unify with the rest of Ireland. Nationalists are in favour of a referendum, and increasingly so since the 'Brexit' referendum. Unionists are opposed. The third contentious issue relates to the stability of the way that the government is organised in Northern Ireland. The 'power-sharing executive' is made up of a coalition of the main unionist parties and nationalist parties. There are two prime ministers in the sense that there is a 'First Minister' and 'deputy First Minister'. In terms of law the two positions are equal but it has long been important for many unionists to hold the First Minister position and to keep it away from Sinn Fein. Whichever parties gets the most votes can hold the First Minister position. These three issues are likely to be especially important at the 2022 Assembly election. Politicians and commentators are likely to see the election as a major test of what voters think about these three issues. In our project we plan to help politicians, commentators and public make sense of the election results by conducting an objective survey of voters at the time of the election. We will use the information to provide a fair-minded and balanced picture of what the voters beliefs actually are on these three issue areas (as well as other issues). This will help public debate on how to interpret the election results and what the election results actually mean: exactly what message are the voters sending on these issues? As well as conducting surveys we also conduct research in which we allow citizens to really carefully think about these issues and come up with recommendations on them. Specifically, we conduct what we call a 'deliberative mini-public' which is basically getting a cross section of about 50 ordinary people from across Northern Ireland together to learn about and discuss the issues. We focus mainly on the issue of the 'sea border' because there is going to be a very important vote on this issue by the elected politicians in the Assembly in 2024. They will basically have to vote on whether to keep it or get rid of significant parts of it. We seek to help the public debate in the run-up to this important vote by conducting the 'mini-public' on this issue (and how this issue links to wider institutional and constitutional issues) and reporting what the ordinary citizens think once they have had a chance to really learn and consider and discuss the issues.