Catholic-Protestant Earnings Differentials in Northern Ireland 2011 NISRA BDR Programme

长期以来，北爱尔兰天主教徒和新教社区之间的劳动力市场不平等以及相关的“公平就业”辩论一直是政策制定者、研究人员和北爱尔兰公众所关注的问题。例如，北爱尔兰平等委员会（ECNI）每年发布一份《公平就业监测报告》（Fair Employment Monitoring Report），提供有关这一问题的最新数据。然而，大部分辩论和持续监测都集中在两个社区之间的失业和就业差异上，很少分析两个社区之间的工资和/或收入差异。例如，公平就业监测报告没有对工资或收入差异进行分析。这反映了过去和现在都缺乏适当的数据来衡量和理解这种工资/收入差异。学术文献中最接近的例外可能是Borooah等人（1995）使用家庭支出调查数据对收入差异进行的研究，该研究发现天主教社区的平均家庭收入低于新教社区，这并不能用生产特征的差异来解释。在定期监测方面，作为其LFS宗教报告系列的一部分，北爱尔兰行政部门每年都会根据LFS公布对工资差异中位数的估计，最近一次是在2017年（https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/lfs-religion-report-2017.pdf），但现在已经停止。最新的估计（2017年）表明，工资中位数没有差异。然而，目前尚不清楚我们能从这次或以前的LFS宗教报告估计中学到多少，因为它们不精确，随着时间的推移，反映了小样本量，也可能是关于LFS产生的派生工资变量的测量问题。LFS的宗教报告也没有研究天主教徒和新教徒之间相关的可观察特征的差异，这些特征可能有助于解释甚至模糊工资差异。最重要的是，无论是历史上还是现在，关于北爱尔兰天主教徒和新教徒之间劳动力市场不平等的这一潜在关键方面，仍然几乎没有可信的证据。然而，尽管缺乏现有的证据，但很难排除这种工资差距可能早在2011年就存在了，甚至可能持续到最近。随着时间的推移，失业率差异的趋势可能暗示了这一点。具体来说，尽管在2011年之前的几十年里，天主教和新教之间的失业差距大幅缩小，但罗兰等人（2021）表明，在那一点上，两个社区之间的失业差距仍然存在，至少对男性来说是这样。此外，研究表明，这一差距可以部分解释，但不能完全解释两个社区在可观察特征上的差异，包括人们居住的地方。拟议的研究将通过提供比以前使用新数据（2011年收入和雇员研究（EES））更精确和更详细的定量证据，解决我们对北爱尔兰天主教和新教社区之间不平等的理解中的这一重要差距。除了做出重要的学术贡献外，通过提供一个可供比较的历史基准，该项目将有助于为诸如ECNI等正在进行的监测工作提供信息。这种监测可能至关重要。ECNI首席专员Geraldine McGahey公开表示：“我们的经验表明，如果某件事不加以衡量，就不太可能改变”（https://www.equalityni.org/Footer-Links/News/Delivering-Equality/31st-Fair-Employment-Monitoring-Report-published）。

Labour market inequality between the Catholic and Protestant communities in Northern Ireland and the associated 'fair employment' debate have long been of concern to policy makers, researchers and the Northern Ireland public alike. For example, the Equalities Commission for Northern Ireland (ECNI) publishes an annual Fair Employment Monitoring Report, now in its 31st year, presenting up to date data on this issue. However, much of this debate, and ongoing monitoring, focusses on unemployment and employment differentials between the two communities, with little analysis of wage and/or earnings differentials between the two communities. For example, the Fair Employment Monitoring Reports contain no analysis of wage or earnings differentials. This reflects a historical and ongoing lack of suitable data with which to measure and seek to understand such wage/earnings differentials. The closest exception in the academic literature is probably the Borooah et al. (1995) study of income differentials using data from the Family Expenditure Survey, which found lower mean household income among the Catholic community than among the Protestant community, which was not explained by differences in productive characteristics. In terms of regular monitoring, the Northern Ireland Executive published estimates of median wage differentials each year based on the LFS, as part of its series of LFS Religion Reports, most recently for 2017 (https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/lfs-religion-report-2017.pdf), but nowdiscontinued. The most recent estimate (for 2017) suggested no median wage differential. It is unclear, however, how much we can learn from this or previous LFS Religion Report estimates given their imprecision and volatility over time, reflecting the small sample size and also likely the measurement problems concerning the derived wage variable produced by the LFS. Nor do the LFS Religion Reports examine differences in relevant observable characteristics between Catholics and Protestants that may help to explain or even obscure wage differentials. The bottom line is that there remains very little credible evidence on this potentially crucial aspect of labour market inequality between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, both historically and currently.Despite this lack of existing evidence, however, it is difficult to rule out that such a wage gap may have existed as late as 2011, and might perhaps even persist more recently. The trends over time in the unemployment differential may be suggestive of this. Specifically, although there was a substantial narrowing of Catholic-Protestant unemploymentdifferentials in the decades running up to 2011, Rowland et al. (2021) show that an unemployment gap between the two communities still existed at that point, at least for men. Further, the study shows that this gap could be partly but not fully explained by differences in the observable characteristics of the two communities, including where people live.The proposed research will address this important gap in our understanding of inequality between the Catholic and Protestant communities in Northern Ireland by providing more precise and more detailed quantitative evidence than has previously been possible on the wage differential as of 2011 using newly available data (the Earnings and EmployeesStudy (EES) 2011). In addition to making an important academic contribution, by providing a historical benchmark from which to compare, this project will help to inform the ongoing monitoring efforts of, for example, ECNI. Such monitoring can be crucially important. The ECNI Chief Commissioner, Geraldine McGahey, is on record as saying: "Our experiences show that if something is not measured, it is unlikely to be changed" (https://www.equalityni.org/Footer-Links/News/Delivering-Equality/31st-Fair-Employment-Monitoring-Report-published).