Understanding Civil War from Pre- to Post-War Stages: A Comparative Approach

内战，或发生在国家边界内的战争，是当今武装冲突的主要形式。每年，内战造成许多人死于暴力、破坏和贫穷，使受冲突影响的人口流离失所，阻碍可持续发展，并助长资源开发。战争的人力、政治、经济和环境代价是严重的。然而，我们仍然知之甚少，关于冲突如何演变为暴力，内战如何随着时间的推移而演变，以及为什么一些冲突会再次发生，而另一些则不会。为了更好地应对这一紧迫的全球问题，这项研究认为，我们需要了解内战是如何在战前、战时和战后冲突阶段展开的。这项研究不同于将内战作为脱离更广泛冲突的现象的传统分析，并遵循单独的逻辑，将内战作为一个过程，通过国家、非国家团体和外部行为者之间不断演变的互动，将冲突的战前、战时和战后阶段联系起来。将内战作为一个过程来考察表明，从战前到战后阶段，内战遵循不同的道路，需要采取不同的应对措施。例如，在国家能力薄弱的背景下开始的战争，在持续时间、严重程度和结果上，都不同于那些长期被群体边缘化的战争。外部支持可以改变这些战争的发展方式，延长战斗时间。预防、应对和重建受冲突影响的社会的努力应该建立在这种变化和变化的基础上。为了了解内战遵循的不同道路，这项研究将对八个内战案例进行严格设计的定性分析。一组高素质的研究人员将从事协调一致的实地工作，以收集和分析关于三组问题的新的一手和二手数据：Q1。内战爆发的不同途径有哪些？冲突是如何演变成暴力的？非国家组织在战前是如何动员和组织起来的？C.国家在内战爆发中扮演什么角色？这项研究将探讨产生于：1.国家能力薄弱和国家内部分裂的内战；2.自发的群众动员和国家镇压，以应对动乱；有组织的参与暴力争斗的社会运动；分析这些路径将有助于理解内战可能在哪里开始，以及它们将如何发展。内战的不同道路如何影响战争的动态和结果？a.战争开始时参与者的性质和力量的分布如何影响战斗？b.(如何)战斗随着时间的推移而变化？C.区域影响和外部支持在这些变化中起什么作用？本研究将探讨不断变化的内部和外部条件，包括：v.引入外部支持；内部动员和资金的变化。确定这些变化将有助于理解哪些因素会延长和加剧这场斗争。内战的动态和结果如何塑造战后和平的潜力？A.某些战争结果比其他战争结果更有利于战后建设和平吗？b.内战结束后，从不同的途径出现了什么形式的“和平”？c.如何解释内战后暴力的再次发生？这项研究将探索两种类型的内战结果：vii.胜利；安维。通过谈判解决。查明这些结果对战后和平的影响将有助于理解在哪里可能再次发生暴力，以及如何让当地行为者参与预防。关于战前冲突如何与内战的开始有关、战争的开始如何影响其发展以及战争的动态和结果如何塑造战后和平潜力的调查结果将有助于区分战前和战后阶段，这些阶段需要采取不同的应对措施，并为国际组织建立强有力的政策工具包。

Civil wars, or wars that take place within state borders, are the dominant form of armed conflict today. Every year civil wars generate numerous deaths from violence, destruction and poverty, displace conflict affected populations, halt sustainable development and contribute to resource exploitation. The human, political, economic and environmental costs of war are severe. Yet, we still know little about how conflicts turn violent, how civil wars evolve over time and why some recur while others do not. To develop better informed responses to this pressing global problem this study argues that we need to understand how civil wars unfold across the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict. This study departs from traditional analyses of civil war as phenomenon that is isolated from the broader conflict and follows a separate logic to explore civil war as a process that connects the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict through evolving interactions between the state, non-state groups and external actors. Examining civil war as a process shows that civil wars follow different paths from the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses. For example, wars that start in the context of weak state capacity differ in duration, severity and outcomes from those preceded by long-term group marginalisation. External support can change how these wars develop and prolong the fighting. Efforts to prevent, react and rebuild conflict affected societies should be based on this variation and change.To understand different paths that civil wars follow, the study will undertake a rigorously designed qualitative analysis of eight cases of civil war. A team of highly qualified researchers will engage in coordinated fieldwork to collect and analyse new primary and secondary data on three sets of questions:Q1. What are the different paths to civil war onset? a. How does conflict turn violent? b. How do non-state groups mobilise and organise before the war? c. What role does the state play in civil war onset?The study will explore civil wars that emerge from:i. weak state capacity and fragmentation within the state;ii. spontaneous mass mobilisation and state repression in response to the unrest;iii. organized social movements that engage in violent contention; andiv. activities of militant political groups.Analysing these paths will help understand where civil wars can start and how they will develop.Q2. How do the different paths to civil war shape the dynamics and outcomes of wars?a. How do the nature of actors and distribution of forces at the war's onset shape the fighting?b. (How) does the fighting change over time? c. What is the role of regional influence and external support in these changes?The study will explore changing internal and external conditions, including:v. introduction of external support; andvi. changes in internal mobilisation and funding.Identifying these changes will help understand what factors can protract and intensify the fighting.Q3. How do the civil war dynamics and outcomes shape the post-war potential for peace? a. Do some war outcomes facilitate post-war peacebuilding more than others?b. What forms of "peace" emerge from the different paths when civil wars end?c. What explains the recurrence of violence after civil wars?The study will explore two types of civil war outcomes:vii. victory; andviii. negotiated settlement.Identifying the effects of these outcomes on post-war peace will help understand where violence can recur and how to engage local actors to prevent it.The findings on how the pre-war conflict is related to the civil war's onset, how the onset of war affects its development and how the dynamics and outcomes of war shape the post-war potential for peace will help differentiate between the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses and build a robust policy toolkit for international organisations.