Understanding Civil War from Pre- to Post-War Stages: A Comparative Approach

内战，或发生在国家边界内的战争，是当今武装冲突的主要形式。每年内战都造成许多人因暴力、破坏和贫穷而死亡，使受冲突影响的人口流离失所，使可持续发展停止，并助长资源开采。战争的人力、政治、经济和环境代价是严重的。然而，我们仍然对冲突如何演变成暴力、内战如何随着时间的推移而演变以及为什么有些冲突会再次发生而另一些则不会发生知之甚少。为了更好地应对这一紧迫的全球性问题，本研究认为，我们需要了解内战如何在战前，战时和战后冲突阶段展开。本研究从传统的分析内战是孤立的现象，从更广泛的冲突，并遵循一个单独的逻辑，探讨内战作为一个过程，连接战前，战时和战后阶段的冲突，通过国家，非国家团体和外部行为者之间不断发展的相互作用。把内战作为一个过程来考察，可以看出内战从战前到战后阶段都有不同的发展路径，需要采取不同的对策。例如，在国家能力薄弱的背景下开始的战争在持续时间、严重程度和结果上与之前长期处于群体边缘化的战争不同。外部支持可以改变这些战争的发展方式，延长战斗时间。预防、应对和重建受冲突影响的社会的努力应该基于这种变化和变化。为了理解内战遵循的不同路径，本研究将对八个内战案例进行严格设计的定性分析。一个高素质的研究人员团队将参与协调的实地工作，收集和分析三组问题的新的主要和次要数据：Q1。内战爆发的不同途径是什么？a.冲突如何演变成暴力？B.非国家组织在战前是如何动员和组织起来的？C.国家在内战爆发中扮演什么角色？该研究将探讨内战出现的原因：一。国家能力薄弱，国家内部四分五裂;二.自发的群众动员和国家镇压以应对动乱;iii.从事暴力争夺的有组织的社会运动;分析这些路径将有助于了解内战可能从哪里开始以及如何发展。内战的不同路径如何塑造战争的动态和结果？a.行为者的性质和战争开始时的兵力分配如何影响战斗？B. (How)战斗会随着时间而改变吗C.区域影响和外部支持在这些变化中的作用是什么？这项研究将探讨不断变化的内部和外部条件，包括：五，引进外部支持;和六。内部动员和资金的变化。识别这些变化将有助于了解哪些因素会延长和加剧战斗。内战的动态和结果如何塑造战后和平的潜力？a.某些战争结果是否比其他结果更有利于战后建设和平？B.当内战结束时，从不同的道路上出现了什么形式的“和平”？C.如何解释内战后暴力的复发？研究将探讨两种类型的内战结果：七。胜利;和viii.确定这些结果对战后和平的影响，将有助于了解哪里可能再次发生暴力，以及如何让当地行为者参与预防暴力。关于战前冲突与内战爆发之间关系的调查结果，战争的爆发如何影响其发展，以及战争的动态和结果如何塑造战后和平的潜力，将有助于区分战争前和战争后，战争阶段需要不同的反应，并为国际组织建立一个强大的政策工具包。

Civil wars, or wars that take place within state borders, are the dominant form of armed conflict today. Every year civil wars generate numerous deaths from violence, destruction and poverty, displace conflict affected populations, halt sustainable development and contribute to resource exploitation. The human, political, economic and environmental costs of war are severe. Yet, we still know little about how conflicts turn violent, how civil wars evolve over time and why some recur while others do not. To develop better informed responses to this pressing global problem this study argues that we need to understand how civil wars unfold across the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict. This study departs from traditional analyses of civil war as phenomenon that is isolated from the broader conflict and follows a separate logic to explore civil war as a process that connects the pre-war, war-time and post-war stages of conflict through evolving interactions between the state, non-state groups and external actors. Examining civil war as a process shows that civil wars follow different paths from the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses. For example, wars that start in the context of weak state capacity differ in duration, severity and outcomes from those preceded by long-term group marginalisation. External support can change how these wars develop and prolong the fighting. Efforts to prevent, react and rebuild conflict affected societies should be based on this variation and change.To understand different paths that civil wars follow, the study will undertake a rigorously designed qualitative analysis of eight cases of civil war. A team of highly qualified researchers will engage in coordinated fieldwork to collect and analyse new primary and secondary data on three sets of questions:Q1. What are the different paths to civil war onset? a. How does conflict turn violent? b. How do non-state groups mobilise and organise before the war? c. What role does the state play in civil war onset?The study will explore civil wars that emerge from:i. weak state capacity and fragmentation within the state;ii. spontaneous mass mobilisation and state repression in response to the unrest;iii. organized social movements that engage in violent contention; andiv. activities of militant political groups.Analysing these paths will help understand where civil wars can start and how they will develop.Q2. How do the different paths to civil war shape the dynamics and outcomes of wars?a. How do the nature of actors and distribution of forces at the war's onset shape the fighting?b. (How) does the fighting change over time? c. What is the role of regional influence and external support in these changes?The study will explore changing internal and external conditions, including:v. introduction of external support; andvi. changes in internal mobilisation and funding.Identifying these changes will help understand what factors can protract and intensify the fighting.Q3. How do the civil war dynamics and outcomes shape the post-war potential for peace? a. Do some war outcomes facilitate post-war peacebuilding more than others?b. What forms of "peace" emerge from the different paths when civil wars end?c. What explains the recurrence of violence after civil wars?The study will explore two types of civil war outcomes:vii. victory; andviii. negotiated settlement.Identifying the effects of these outcomes on post-war peace will help understand where violence can recur and how to engage local actors to prevent it.The findings on how the pre-war conflict is related to the civil war's onset, how the onset of war affects its development and how the dynamics and outcomes of war shape the post-war potential for peace will help differentiate between the pre- to post-war stages that require distinct responses and build a robust policy toolkit for international organisations.