From models to insight: Effective use of models to inform decisions

在气候政策、流行病应对、经济政策和人道主义危机应对等高度紧张的情况下，决策者往往热衷于“遵循科学”。在这样的情况下，决策是通过复杂的建模或模拟得出的，不可避免地存在分歧和不确定性，因此不清楚“遵循科学”的真正含义。一些现有的模型使用和解释范式开始显示出不适合当今时代的目的。我们可以从2008年金融危机的根源（对模型的过度自信）、关于发展中的气候危机的公众讨论（没有人完全知道如何解释不同的模型结果）以及当前的流行病危机（各种模型似乎正在将政策推向相互冲突的方向）中看到这一点。这并非巧合：随着计算机的功能越来越强大，模型越来越复杂，模型在科学过程中的作用越来越大，影响决策的力量也越来越大。科学方法在决策环境中的局限性和偏见已经得到了广泛的研究，但数学模型的具体作用变得越来越重要。本项目的总体目标是了解模型在决策中的作用的数学和社会方面，并将这些与现实世界的例子和案例研究联系起来。该项目跨越学科界限，也非常重视与政府，企业和第三部门的影响和参与。这将有助于确保尽可能广泛地传播我关于建模良好做法以及模型输出的解释和使用的建议。四个案例研究谈到了这项工作所解决的关键社会挑战：减缓和适应气候变化，管理流行病/大流行病应对战略，经济稳定和能源转型管理，以及应对潜在可预测的人道主义危机的必要性。我将与START网络的合作伙伴密切合作进行一项案例研究，START网络是一个人道主义机构联盟，旨在对人道主义危机采取基于预测的行动。在数学上，我将为建模方法和量化不确定性开发一个新的连贯框架。但是模型和数学并不存在于真空中。我还将调查模型制作和模型使用的社会和政治背景，以及该背景下的方法的适用性和基于模型的结果的稳健性的后果，特别是在决策支持中的使用。该项目的结果和成果将直接与英国政府，企业和第三部门的决策者相关，有潜力成为使用模型作为决策支持工具的变革性工具。因此，外联和参与方案对该项目非常重要，包括一本书、网站、博客、推特和参与专题会议。我还将邀请/鼓励各种各样的参与者参加年度研讨会，会议和高级培训课程，这将提高英国早期职业研究人员的技能。

Decision-makers are often keen to "follow the science" in highly-charged contexts such as climate policy, pandemic response, economic policy and humanitarian crisis response. In situations like these, where decisions are informed by complex modelling or simulation and there is inevitable disagreement and uncertainty, it is unclear what "following the science" really means. Some existing paradigms of model use and interpretation are beginning to reveal themselves as unfit for purpose in the present age. We can see this in the roots of the financial crisis in 2008 (over-confidence in models), public discourse on the developing climate crisis (no one quite knows how to interpret different model results), and the present pandemic crisis (where various models appear to be driving policy in conflicting directions). These are not coincidental: as computers become more powerful, and models become more complex, the role of the model within the scientific process has become larger and larger and so has the power of the model to influence decision-making. Limitations and biases of the scientific approach in decision-making contexts have been studied extensively, but the specific role of mathematical models is becoming more and more important.The overall aim of this project is to understand both mathematical and social aspects of the role of models in decision-making, and to connect these with real-world examples and case studies. The project crosses disciplinary boundaries, and also has a strong emphasis on impact and engagement with government, business and the third sector. This will help to ensure as wide as possible a dissemination of my recommendations about good practice for modelling and the interpretation and use of model outputs. The four case studies speak to the key societal challenges that are addressed by this work: mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, managing epidemic/pandemic response strategies, economic stability and management of the energy transition, and the need to respond to potentially-predictable humanitarian crises. I will work closely on one case study with partners at the Start Network, a consortium of humanitarian agencies aiming to take forecast-based action in anticipation of humanitarian crises.Mathematically, I will develop a new, coherent framework for modelling methods and the quantification of uncertainty. But models and mathematics do not exist in a vacuum. I will also investigate the social and political context of model-making and model use, and the consequences of that context for the applicability of methods and robustness of model-based results, in particular for their use in decision support.The results and outcomes of this project will be directly relevant to UK decision-makers in government, business and the third sector, with potential to be transformative for the use of models as decision support tools. The programme of outreach and engagement is therefore very important to this project, including a book, website, blog, Twitter and engaging with subject-specific conferences. I will also invite/ encourage a diverse range of participants at the annual workshops, conferences, and the Advanced Training Course which will build the skills of UK-based early career researchers.