Adaptation for future climate warming: the role of habitat creation in promoting species' range shifts.

有一个正在形成的共识是，许多动物物种正在通过向北转移其分布来应对当前的气候变暖。然而，为了跟踪气候，物种必须能够通过已被人类活动大大改变的景观分散，繁殖栖息地往往是支离破碎的，分散在荒凉的城市和农业景观中。由于这种栖息地的丧失，一些物种无法转移，并且落后于气候变化，因为它们无法到达范围边缘之外的新地点。这种转变的失败是非常令人担忧的，因为许多落后于气候的物种是高度保护的濒危物种。即使温室气体排放量立即大幅减少，由于地球气候系统的惯性，仍然会发生更多的变暖。因此，无论采取何种减缓措施，都有可能导致未来变暖，因此迫切需要采取适应措施。一个普遍建议的适应措施是创造新的栖息地作为“走廊”或“垫脚石”，让物种通过不合适的景观，并帮助他们殖民新的网站。然而，这种创造栖息地的概念基本上是未经检验的，也没有全面的研究这种适应方法是否可能成功，或者如何实施。拟议的工作将提供第一个系统分析的重要性，栖息地的可用性分布滞后在整个组的昆虫（蝴蝶）。我们将开发新的动态计算机模型，通过逼真的英国景观模拟范围扩张。这些模型考虑到了栖息地和适宜气候的可用性，还包括扩散、出生率和死亡率等生物过程。我们将（1）开发和验证所有46个居民，南部分布的英国蝴蝶物种的动态模型。我们将（2）使用这些模型来量化栖息地限制物种范围扩张的程度。我们将（3）使用模型来检查不同的栖息地创造方案的成功，以检查哪些（如果有的话）方案足以允许范围扩展，以及哪种适应策略是最好的。该项目将产生具有相当实际价值的结果，并解决有关物种范围限制的基本问题。它将为研究气候变化对生物多样性的影响开辟一条新的途径。保护战略必须包括适应战略，但保护主义者不确定该怎么做。拟议的工作将为这一辩论提供具体的科学证据。

There is an emerging consensus that many animal species are responding to current climate warming by shifting their distributions northwards. However, in order to track climate, species must be able to disperse through landscapes that have been greatly altered by human activities, and where breeding habitats are often fragmented and scattered across inhospitable urban and agricultural landscapes. Because of this habitat loss, some species are failing to shift and are lagging behind climate changes because they are unable to reach new sites beyond the range margin. This failure to shift is of great concern because many species that are lagging behind climate are endangered species of high conservation concern. Even if greenhouse gas emissions were greatly reduced immediately, more warming would still occur because of inertia in the Earth's climate system. Thus there is a commitment to future warming regardless of any mitigation, and so adaptation measures are required urgently. One commonly suggested adaptation measure is the creation of new habitats as 'corridors' or 'stepping stones' to allow species to move through unsuitable landscapes, and to help them colonise new sites. However, this notion of habitat creation is essentially untested, and there is no comprehensive study of whether such adaptation methods might be successful, or how they might be implemented. The proposed work will provide the first systematic analysis of the importance of habitat availability on distribution lags in an entire group of insects (butterflies). We will develop new dynamic computer models that simulate range expansion through realistic British landscapes. The models take account of the availability of habitat and suitable climate, and also include biological processes such as dispersal, birth and death rates. We will (1) develop and validate dynamic models for all 46 resident, southerly-distributed British butterfly species. We will (2) use these models to quantify the degree to which habitat limits species' range expansion. We will (3) use models to examine the success of different habitat creation scenarios to examine which, if any, scenarios would be sufficient to allow range expansion, and which adaptation strategy is the best. The project will produce results of considerable practical value, as well as addressing fundamental questions about limits to species ranges. It will open up a new avenue of research on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Conservation strategies must include adaptation strategies, but conservationists are uncertain about what to do. The proposed work will provide a concrete body of scientific evidence to inform this debate.