Integrating Ancient DNA and Ecological Modelling to Quantify the Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity

目前，人们普遍担心欧洲许多哺乳动物物种的生存问题。这种担忧在很大程度上源于对未来气候变化将如何影响欧洲生物多样性的基于模型的预测。目前的物种分布模型表明，气候变化将导致栖息地向北迁移或收缩，并将导致未来100年的高灭绝率。然而，这样的预测是有争议的，主要是因为物种如何应对栖息地可获得性的变化存在不确定性。这个问题的核心是栖息地跟踪假说，该假说指出，种群将通过相应地改变它们的分布来响应栖息地可获得性的变化。在这里，我们提出了一种新颖的多学科方法来研究决定气候诱导的欧洲哺乳动物栖息地跟踪的可能性和程度的潜在机制。我们将结合最近发展的古代DNA方法和物种分布模型来构建对过去40,000年来9个模式物种的栖息地跟踪的详细调查。这将使我们能够确定人口对气候变化的反应速度和模式，以及评估、调整和利用现有的预测模型，以更准确地预测未来的反应。

There is currently widespread concern for the survival of many mammal species in Europe. This concern is to a large extent derived from model-based predictions on how future climate change will affect European biodiversity. Current species distribution models suggest that climate change will cause habitats to shift or contract northwards, and will result in high rates of extinction for the coming 100 years. However, such predictions are controversial, due largely to the uncertainties in how species respond to changes in habitat availability. Central to this problem is the habitat tracking hypothesis, which states that populations will respond to changes in habitat availability by altering their distributions accordingly. Here, we propose a novel and multi-disciplinary approach to investigate the underlying mechanisms that determine the probability and extent of climate-induced habitat tracking in European mammals. We will combine recently developed ancient DNA approaches with species distribution models to construct a detailed investigation of habitat tracking in nine model species in real time through the last 40,000 years. This will allow us to establish the tempo and mode of population response to climate change, as well as to evaluate, adjust and employ existing forecasting models to more accurately predict future responses.