Modelling disease, demography and dispersal in the Woodchester badger society.

我们的首要目标是估计牛结核病(BTB)在獾和牛之间的传播率，并确定影响这一关键流行病学参数的獾种群的关键环境应激源人口统计过程。目前的观点认为，BTB在獾之间的传播是由行为参数(迁徙和定居)驱动的，而不是种群密度本身。为了验证这一假设，我们将使用基于伍德切斯特公园长期数据集的獾人口统计学经验模型，以及地方和国家规模的牛群分解率数据库。关键的流行病学参数将通过对这些耦合数据集的贝叶斯统计分析进行反向工程。学生将接受模拟和投影矩阵种群建模、空间和贝叶斯统计学以及野生动物流行病学方面的培训。结果应该为牛结核病管理战略的政策提供参考。其他产出将包括对关于表型特征(例如疾病易感性)、人口统计学(人口和既定年龄/阶段结构)和人口动态之间统计联系的文献的主要贡献。伍德切斯特公园项目始于1976年，是纵向人口学研究和标准化临床抽样的独特结合。该项目基于&gt；3000只獾的历史和&gt；14000次抽样事件。它已经产生了100种同行评议的出版物。

Our overarching goal is to estimate the rate of transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) between badgers and cattle, and to identify the key environmental stressors demographic processes of badger populations that influence this critical epidemiological parameter. Current wisdom states that bTB transmission between badgers is driven by behavioural parameters (movement and colonisation) rather than population densities per se. To test this hypothesis we will use empirical models of badger demography based on the Woodchester Park longterm dataset, coupled with local- and national-scale databases of cattle herd breakdown rates. Key epidemiological parameters will be reverse-engineered from Bayesian statistical analyses of these coupled datasets. The student will receive training in simulation and projection matrix population modelling, in spatial and Bayesian statistics and in wildlife epidemiology. Results should inform policy on strategies for the management of bovine TB. Other outputs will include key contributions to the literature on statistical links between phenotypic traits (e.g. disease susceptibility), demography (population and sett age/stage structure) and population dynamics. The Woodchester Park project was initiated in 1976 and is a unique combination of longitudinal demographic study and standardised clinical sampling. The project is based on the histories of >3000 individual badgers and >14000 sampling events. It has resulted in >100 peer-reviewed publications.