Predicting ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change in habitat and ecological networks: the impact of variation within species

快速的气候变化和栖息地破碎化预计会破坏物种之间的生态相互作用，甚至在物种灭绝之前，由于直接失去合适的栖息地而发生。这种破坏可能对生态系统为人类健康和农业提供的服务产生严重影响。特别是，植物种群之间以及这些植物与其传粉者之间的开花时间可能发生不同步。这些不匹配会大大降低种群的空间连通性和植物-传粉者网络的生态弹性。试图预测这种影响的假设是，在一个物种内，开花时间和花的形态等特征在空间和时间上几乎没有变化。然而，最近对种群内和种群间花性状和出苗时间的研究表明，遗传率非常高，这可能导致花形态和传粉者访花的快速进化变化。CASE的合作伙伴，雅芳野生动物信托基金会，已经迅速采取了“活景观”的方法来保护它，以最大限度地提高物种的适应能力。Michael Pocock博士（NERC研究员；2008-11）已经在研究草原保护区的授粉网络。该项目将在AWT和UoB之间建立紧密的合作关系，探索报春花（Primula veris）的表型变异和进化变化的影响，并在整个保护区网络中推断这些影响。野外观察表明，不同地点的花形态及其传粉者存在很大差异，特别是在中性草地和钙质草地上的个体比较时。花通常由蜜蜂授粉。鹅毛草通常在一个地点花很短的时间，并产生大量的种子，通常分散在亲本植物附近，因此即使在小的空间尺度（10米）也可以检测到中性遗传分化。目标是：1；定量地分析了不同保护区内小气候、花期和形态的变化。将这种变异与不同传粉者的访视率和昆虫口器大小的变异联系起来。通过将当地小气候与开花时间相关联来评估当地适应水平，并测试不同地点之间的显著差异（2010年10月至2013年7月）。开花性状在遗传和环境成分上的分配变异。评估这种变异在位点之间和位点内的存在程度，表明局部适应，并通过田间种子的相互移植确认这种分化的适应性效应。（2010年5月- 2012年7月）使用400个AFLP标记和30个等位酶标记估计15个不同地点植物群体之间的基因流动。将此与观察到的开花时间和授粉者丰度在站点之间和站点内部的重叠水平联系起来。(Aug-May 2010 - 13)。4.评估在不同的气候变化情景下，物种内部的变异和进化变化的潜力将在多大程度上影响开花时间的不同步产生，或通过引起花形态的进化来维持生态网络。将这些数据外推到更大的空间尺度，一旦将物种内变异纳入模型，就可以评估“生活景观”网络在产生生态系统恢复力方面的有效性（2010年7月- 10月）。更广泛的意义：面对全球变化，保持生态相互作用是NERC的一个关键优先事项。这将是第一个评估单一物种生活史特征的遗传和生态变异的研究，并评估维持一个特定的栖息地保护区网络如何可能最大限度地提高生态恢复能力。这些数据还将告知迁移项目的价值，一些从业者认为迁移项目对不断变化的世界中的保护至关重要。

Rapid climate change and habitat fragmentation are expected to disrupt ecological interactions between species, even before extinctions due to direct loss of suitable habitat occur. Such disruptions are likely to have serious implications for the services that ecosystems provide for human health and agriculture. In particular, asynchronies are likely to develop in flowering time both between plant populations, and between these plants and their pollinators. These mismatches could substantially reduce both the spatial connectivity of populations, and the ecological resilience of plant-pollinator networks. Attempts to predict such effects assume that traits such as flowering times and flower morphology change little in space and time within a species. However, recent studies of flower traits and emergence time within and between populations reveal very high levels of heritability, which could generate rapid evolutionary change in flower morphology and pollinator visitation. The CASE partner, the Avon Wildlife Trust, has been quick to adopt a 'Living landscape' approach to its conservation to maximise the capacity for species to adapt. Pollination networks on its grassland reserves are already being studied by Dr Michael Pocock (NERC fellow; 2008-11).This studentship will develop a close collaboration between the AWT and the UoB to explore the impact of phenotypic variation and evolutionary change within and between sites of the cowslip, Primula veris, and extrapolate these effects across the reserve network as a whole. Field observations suggest large differences in flower morphology between sites, and in its pollinators, especially when individuals on neutral and calcareous grassland are compared. Flowers are typically pollinated by bee species. P. veris usually flowers for a short period at a site, and produces abundant seed that is typically dispersed close to the parental plant, so detectable neutral genetic differentiation is possible even at small spatial scales (10s of metres). Objectives are: 1.Quantify variation in microclimate, flowering times and morphology within and between reserves in P. veris. Relate this variation to visitation rates by different pollinators, and variation in insect mouthpart size. Assess levels of local adaptation by correlating local microclimate with flowering time, and testing for significant differences between sites (Oct 2010-July 2013) 2.Partition variation in flowering traits into genetic and environmental components. Assess how much of this variation is present between versus within sites, suggesting local adaptation, and confirm fitness effects of this differentiation using reciprocal transplants of seed in the field. (May 2010-July 2012) 3.Estimate current gene flow between plant populations at 15 different sites using 400 AFLP markers and 30 allozyme markers. Relate this to observed levels of overlap in flowering time and pollinator abundance between and within sites. (Aug-May 2010-13). 4.Assess to what extent variation within species and the potential for evolutionary change will affect the generation of asynchrony in flowering time, or maintain ecological networks by causing evolution of flower morphology under different climate change scenarios. Extrapolate these data across larger spatial scales to assess the effectiveness of the 'Living Landscape' networks in generating ecosystem resilience, once within-species variation is included in models (July-Oct 2010-3). Wider significance: Maintaining ecological interactions in the face of global change is a key NERC priority. This will be the first study to estimate genetic and ecological variation in life-history traits in a single species, and assess how maintaining a given networks of distinct habitat reserves is likely to maximise ecological resilience. These data will also inform the value of translocation programmes, which are advocated by some practitioners as critical for conservation in a changing world.