Climate Change Predictions with a Fully Resolved Stratosphere

目前，世界各地的气候模拟中心正在为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的下一次评估准备气候模式模拟。在这个与英国气象局的联合项目中，将使用气象局哈德利中心气候模型的“高顶”版本进行完全耦合的大气-海洋模型模拟和分析，该模型延伸至85公里，因此可以完全解决平流层的过程。将进行过去（1860年至今）和未来（到2100年）的模拟。该项目将检验由完全耦合的海洋-对流层-平流层模式预测的气候变化信号，并研究平流层对地面气候的影响。这些目标将通过仔细分析模型运行，以及额外的实验来隔离过程、测试机制和提高统计显著性来实现。将特别强调(a)地表变化的区域和季节模式，特别是北大西洋涛动及其对欧洲的影响，以及(b)探测和归因研究，利用众所周知的人为影响对流层变暖/平流层变冷特征。将与观测结果、相应的不能完全解析平流层的低顶模式运行以及其他国际气候模拟小组使用的高顶模式运行进行比较。

Climate model simulations for the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are currently being prepared by climate modelling centres around the world. In this joint project with the Met Office, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations will be performed and analysed using a 'high-top' version of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model that extends to 85km and therefore fully resolves processes in the stratosphere. Simulations of the past (1860-present) and into the future (to 2100) will be carried out. The project will examine the climate change signals predicted by the fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model and investigate the stratospheric influence on surface climate. These aims will be achieved by careful analysis of the model runs, together with additional experiments to isolate processes, test mechanisms and improve statistical significance. Particular emphasis will be placed on (a) regional and seasonal patterns of surface change, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts over Europe, and (b) detection and attribution studies, exploiting the well-known tropospheric warming / stratospheric cooling signature of anthropogenic influence. Comparisons will be carried out with observations, with corresponding low-top model runs that do not fully resolve the stratosphere and with runs from high-top models carried out by other international climate modelling groups.