Towards a virtual observatory for ecosystem services and poverty alleviation

对于秘鲁亚马逊地区帕卡亚-萨米拉国家保护区的土著社区来说，养龟是一种成功的生存策略。这种做法使自然动物数量保持在较高水平，并提供了必要的食物和收入来源。然而，这项活动的成功高度依赖于有关不稳定的河流水位的信息，在关键时刻，河流水位可能会淹没筑巢海滩。在厄瓜多尔亚马逊的亚苏尼国家公园，丛林肉狩猎区受到森林砍伐的威胁。与此同时，在厄瓜多尔、秘鲁和玻利维亚的安第斯源头，灌溉用水的供应和质量在很大程度上依赖于山区湿地管理，并可能受到全球气候变化的威胁。这些都是当地社区生计依赖关键生态系统服务的许多情况的显著例子。然而，只有利用气候、水文和生态数据的高级集成，才有可能对这些服务进行可持续管理。由于各种原因，目前整合此类数据的方法在很大程度上失败了。在帕卡亚萨米拉，当地数据很少，导致模型预测中存在很大的不确定性。在安第斯高地，当地政客和管理人员在解释模型模拟和设计适当的土地管理方案方面存在困难。最后，这两个系统都可以从结合本地专家知识来减少模型不确定性中受益匪浅。最近，已经开发了许多用于数据集成和用户交互的方法。它们被称为“虚拟天文台”(VO)。VO的最终目标是数据、模型和用户的完美整合。在世界范围内，许多协调一致的活动正在进行中，以使这一一体化成为现实。然而，对于这些发展如何有利于环境服务管理和减贫的问题，人们的关注要少得多。该项目将利用现有的虚拟观测站工具，为上述案例研究设计和实施一个环境预测系统。下一步，我们将开发、实施和评估工具，以提高这些系统在具体扶贫条件下的价值，即(1)改善模拟的沟通。这一行动将特别侧重于模型结果及其不确定性的可视化；(2)评估收集到的数据的价值。在数据稀疏和资源受限的环境中，新的数据收集策略的优化设计至关重要。在这里，我们将开发方法来模拟不同数据对模型预测的价值；(3)将当地管理人员的知识和实践整合在建模系统中。本模块涉及用户界面的开发，以评估模型、识别模型故障和拒绝模型。我们将严重依赖公共领域软件、开放标准和现有的VO努力，开发一个跨学科、高性价比和高度定制的环境数据分析和模拟平台。这一平台将立即用于选定的案例研究，从而使直接扶贫行动惠及约15000当地居民。与当地利益攸关方的密切合作和与现有倡议的整合确保了该平台的快速采用。例如，将被整合的项目合作伙伴CONDESAN的InfoAndina网站拥有1600多名注册用户。同时，该项目将在发展中的背景下，在模型模拟、交流和改进方面产生新的科学见解。国际和平研究所参与全球虚拟天文台社区，将确保研究成果最有利于这一领域正在进行的研究。

For the indigenous communities of the Pacaya-Samira National Reserve in the Peruvian Amazon, turtle farming is a successful survival strategy. The practice keeps the natural animal population numbers up and provides a necessary source of food and income. However, the success of the activity is highly dependent on information about the erratic river level, which may flood nesting beaches at crucial times. In the Yasuni national park in the Ecuadorian Amazon, bush meat hunting regions are threatened by encroaching deforestation. At the same time in the Andean headwaters of Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, the availability and quality of irrigation water depends strongly on mountain wetland management, and is potentially threatened by global climate change. These are striking examples of many situations where the livelihoods of local communities depend on crucial ecosystem services. However, a sustainable management of these services is only possible using an advanced integration of climatic, hydrological, and ecological data. Current approaches to integrate such data have largely failed for a variety of reasons. In Pacaya Samira, little local data are available resulting in very large uncertainties in the model predictions. In the Andean highlands, local politicians and managers have difficulties interpreting model simulations and design proper land management schemes. Finally, both systems can benefit strongly from the incorporation of local expert knowledge to reduce model uncertainties. Recently, many methodologies for data integration and user interaction have been developed. They are known under the common umbrella of a 'virtual observatory' (VO). The ultimate goal of a VO is a perfect integration of data, models and users. Worldwide, many coordinated activities are ongoing to make this integration a reality. However, far less attention has been paid to the question of how these developments can benefit environmental services management and poverty alleviation. This project will design and implement an environmental prediction system for the above mentioned case studies, using existing virtual observatory tools. In a next step, we will develop, implement and evaluate tools to improve the value of these systems in the specific conditions of poverty alleviation, i.e., (1) Improved communication of simulations. This action will particularly focus on the visualisation of modelling results and their uncertainties; (2) Assessing the value of collected data. In a data sparse and resources constrained environment, an optimal design of new data collection strategies is essential. Here we will develop methods to simulate the value of different data on the model predictions; (3) Integrating local managers' knowledge and practice in modelling systems. This module deals with the development of a user interface to evaluate models, identify model failures and reject models. Heavily relying on public domain software, open standards and existing VO efforts, we will develop a platform for interdisciplinary, cost-efficient and highly tailored environmental data analysis and simulation. This platform will be available immediately for the selected case studies, thus enabling direct poverty alleviation action benefiting an estimated 15000 local inhabitants. Close collaboration with local stakeholders and integration in existing initiatives ensures a quick adoption of the platform. For instance, the InfoAndina website of project partner CONDESAN which will be integrated, has more than 1600 registered users. At the same time, the project will generate novel scientific insights in model simulation, communication and improvement in a developing context. The involvement of the PI in the global Virtual Observatory community will ensure that the research results will optimally benefit ongoing research in this area.