TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms

强烈的热带气旋是中纬度地区的主要天气风险之一。热带气旋带来的强风和极端降水可能导致风暴破坏、洪水和沿海风暴潮。了解气候变化对热带气旋的影响对于评估未来天气风险至关重要。TEMPEST是一项为期3年的拟议研究计划，旨在解决NERC风暴风险缓解指导计划的气候科学交付成果。气候方面的交付品是更好地了解气候变化和自然变异将如何影响热带气旋的生成和演变。TEMPEST将通过解决风暴风险缓解气候交付成果中提出的科学问题来实现这种更好的理解。TEMPEST旨在通过以下方式解决这些问题，在第五次耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）中首次系统评估预测的热带气旋强度变化气候模式使用气象局统一模式进行一系列综合敏感性试验，以量化决定气候模式预测传播的关键过程，研究强热带气旋对气候的响应能够捕捉中尺度结构的极高分辨率全球大气模型实验的变化。TEMPEST的重点是影响欧洲的强烈热带气旋。这部分是由于此类风暴的社会经济影响，但部分原因是科学需要解决气候模型对北大西洋和欧洲温带气旋活动预测的特别大的差异。预计TEMPEST的结果将直接纳入即将提交的气专委评估报告（第五次评估报告）。TEMPEST还将与其他LWEC（与环境变化共存）计划，特别是JWCRP（联合气象局/NERC天气和气候研究计划）和CWC（改变水循环）研究计划产生强大的协同作用。风暴风险缓解气候交付成果提出的问题跨越了天气和气候建模界的传统界限。为了解决这些问题，我们的目标是汇集来自埃克塞特大学、牛津大学和阅读大学、气象局和欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的气候、天气和统计界的科学家。通过在TEMPEST中吸引更广泛的社区，我们将能够与风暴风险缓解计划中的影响和数值天气预报项目建立联系。

Intense extratropical cyclones are one of the major weather risks in the mid-latitudes. High winds and extreme precipitation from extratropical cyclones can result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surge. Understanding the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones is critical to assessing future weather risk. TEMPEST is a 3-year proposed programme of research addressing the climate science deliverable of the NERC Storm Risk Mitigation directed programme. The climate deliverable is to provide an improved understanding of how climate change and natural variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones. TEMPEST will achieve this improved understanding by addressing the scientific questions raised in the Storm Risk Mitigation climate deliverable. TEMPEST aims to address these questions by, Providing the first systematic assessment of how intense extratropical cyclones are predicted to change in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models Performing an integrated set of sensitivity experiments with the Met Office Unified Model to quantify the key processes that determine the spread of climate model predictions Investigating the response of intense extratropical cyclones to climate change in very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments capable of capturing mesoscale structures. The focus in TEMPEST is on intense extratropical cyclones that affect Europe. This is partly due to the socioeconomic impacts of such storms, but is also partly driven by the scientific need to address the particularly large spread in climate model predictions for extratropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic and Europe. It is envisaged that the outcomes from TEMPEST will feed directly into the forthcoming IPCC assessment report (AR5). TEMPEST will also have strong synergies with other LWEC (Living With Environmental Change) programmes, most notably the JWCRP (Joint Met Office/NERC Weather and Climate Research Programme) and the CWC (Changing Water Cycle) research programme. The questions posed by the Storm Risk Mitigation climate deliverable cut across the traditional boundaries of weather and climate modelling communities. To tackle these questions, we aim to bring together scientists from the climate, weather and statistical communities at the Universities of Exeter, Oxford and Reading, the Met Office and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). By engaging the wider community within TEMPEST, we will enable the development of links with the Impacts and Numerical Weather Prediction projects in the Storm Risk Mitigation programme.