Attributing and predicting changes in the probability of climate extremes

我们计划解决以下研究问题：-在哪些地区的热浪和寒流的频率和强度增加？- 气候模型能够重现这些变化吗？如果使用初始化的气候预测，我们能否改善他们的预测？这项工作的范围和区域扩展研究了两个现有的项目：第一个是EQUIP项目，该项目预测欧洲和英国热浪和干旱的变化。我们建议通过研究北美和东亚来扩展这项工作。这些地区显示出初步的证据，表明在短期内（大约5年;例如，D.马泰; J. Marotzke，pers. Com.）。这些地区还显示出观察到的极端温度频率和强度模式的有趣和具有挑战性的变化。我们计划建立的第二个项目是一个致力于归因于全球冷热极端频率变化的项目，该提案将她的工作从使用单一模型（HadGEM 1）扩展到使用CMIP 5存档。这将大大增加她的结果的影响力，并为IPCC第10和11章的作者提供高度相关的信息（请参阅影响途径）。

We plan to address the following research questions:- in which regions are the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells increasing? - Are climate models able to reproduce these changes?- Can we improve their prediction if using initialized climate forecasts?This work extends in scope and regions studied two existing projects: The first one is the EQUIP project, which predicts changes in European and UK heatwaves and drought. We propose to extend this work by also studying North America and East Asia. These regions show tentative evidence that mean temperature is better predictable by initialized than forced runs over the near-term (about 5 years; e.g., D. Matei; J. Marotzke, pers. Com.). These regions also show interesting and challenging changes in observed patterns of frequency and intensity of temperature extremes . The second project we plan to build on is a project that works towards attributing changes in worldwide frequency of hot and cold extremes, and this proposal extends her work from use of a single model (HadGEM1) to use of the CMIP5 archive. This will much increase the impact of her results, and provide highly relevant information to the authors of IPCC chapters 10 and 11 (see pathways to impact).