Quantifying benefits and impacts of fishing exclusion zones around Marine Renewable Energy Installations

潮汐、波浪和海上风能资源将对满足社会未来能源需求的越来越大比例起到重要作用。然而，海洋可再生能源装置很可能在一系列时空尺度上对大陆架和沿海环境以及生物群产生直接影响和间接影响。这些潜在影响(包括积极和消极的)对中上层、底层和底栖鱼类和无脊椎动物(贝类)种群、它们的基本栖息地及其支持的渔业都有影响。在全球范围内，目前对于大规模开发海洋可再生能源装置将如何影响鱼类和贝类种群以及开发它们的渔业的了解非常有限。虽然迄今的一些研究考虑了鱼类对与海洋可再生能源装置相关的可能的噪声和电磁场的感官反应，但具有特别社会经济意义的知识方面的主要差距在于理解海洋可再生能源装置本身和邻近不包括捕鱼的周围区域产生的较长期的行为和生态反应，包括鱼类和贝类对栖息地的利用。因此，有必要量化温带地区MREI地点周围渔业禁区附近地区的渔业是否因假设的生物‘溢出’效应而得到加强，MREI地区如何在生物上相互连接，以及将开发压力从MREI地点转移到邻近地区的生物学和社会经济影响。在拟议的研究中，我们将使用行为跟踪、密度估计和建模方法的新组合来解决由于MREI周围的非捕鱼区而导致的物种丰度(鱼、贝类)的“溢出”是否增强邻近地区。我们建议在一个小空间规模的海浪能试验场(海尔附近的Wave Hub)和第一轮(R1)30个涡轮机的海上风力发电场(北威尔士里尔附近的北霍伊尔)及其以北的R2 Gwynt-y-Mor风力发电场进行研究。我们在这些地点的做法将是量化几个物种(例如食用蟹、龙虾、大西洋鳕鱼、棘背鱼)的大量鱼类和贝类相对于MREI的位置、邻近和较远的区域，以及它们在年度周期中在这些地点停留的时间。然后，我们将使用数百个个体的精确空间信息，利用对这些地区这些重点物种的调查得出的相对丰富的数据，扩大到潜在的种群水平。由此，我们将对溢出效应的大小及其时空动态做出经验估计。这些将与空间渔业模型进行比较，以评估可捕捞和不可捕捞区域之间的动物交换率如何决定产卵潜力和渔业产量的结果。我们将使用以个体为基础的建模方法，以确定在将核磁共振成像技术引入种群区域时，鱼类/贝类利用空间的模式如何决定这些结果。这项研究还将对不包括捕捞的MREI对渔业的影响和好处以及捕捞转移到邻近地区的影响进行社会经济分析。这些数据将与MREI和邻近地区捕食性鱼类(海鸟、海洋哺乳动物)的相对丰富程度相联系，以及鱼类和贝类的运动和空间利用如何随着物理环境(波高、流速)的变化而变化，这将使我们能够更深入地了解MREI和邻近地区目标物种分布变化的驱动因素。拟议的研究将受益于使用新的跟踪技术，包括英国独有的声学监测阵列，以获得MREI地点周围多个物种的第一个长期运动数据。

Tidal, wave and offshore wind resources will be important for meeting an increasing proportion of society's future energy needs. However, marine renewable energy devices are likely to have direct impacts and indirect effects on shelf and coastal environments and biota across a range of spatio-temporal scales. These potential effects (both positive and negative) have implications for pelagic, demersal and benthic fish and invertebrate (shellfish) populations, their essential habitats and the fisheries they support. Globally, there is at present a very limited understanding of how large-scale development of marine renewable energy installations (MREI) will affect fish and shellfish populations and the fisheries that exploit them.Whilst some research to date has considered fish sensory responses to probable noise and electromagnetic fields associated with MREIs, the major gaps in knowledge that will have particular socio-economic importance lie in understanding the longer term behavioural and ecological responses, including habitat use by fish and shellfish, arising from marine renewable devices themselves and the areas immediately surrounding areas that exclude fishing. Hence, there is a need to quantify whether fisheries in areas adjacent to fishery exclusion zones around MREI sites in temperate regions are enhanced by the hypothesised biological 'spillover' effect, how MREI areas may be connected biologically, and the biological and socio-economic effects of displacing exploitation pressure from MREI sites to adjacent areas.In the proposed research we will use a novel combination of behavioural tracking, density estimations and modelling approaches to address whether 'spillover' of species abundance (fish, shellfish) as a consequence of the no-fishing area around MREIs enhance adjacent areas. We propose to conduct research at a small-spatial scale, wave energy test site (the Wave Hub, off Hayle, Cornwall) and a Round 1 (R1) 30-turbine offshore wind farm (North Hoyle, off Rhyl, North Wales) and the area north of this towards the R2 Gwynt-y-Mor wind farm currently under construction. Our approach in these locations will be to quantify where large numbers of fish and shellfish of several species (e.g. edible crab, lobster, Atlantic cod, thornback ray) are located in relation to MREI, adjacent and more distant areas, and how much time they spend in those locations over annual cycles. We will then use this precise spatial information for several hundred individuals to scale up to potential population levels using relative abundance data from surveys for these focal species in those areas. From this, empirical estimates of the magnitude of spillover and its spatio-temporal dynamics will be made. These will be compared with spatial fishery models, to assess how rates of exchange of animals between areas accessible and inaccessible to fishing determine outcomes in terms of both spawning potential and fishery yield. We will use an individual-based modelling approach to identify how patterns of space use by fish/shellfish determine these outcomes when MREIs are introduced into stock areas. This research will also undertake a socio-economic analysis of the impacts and benefits to fisheries of MREIs that exclude fishing, and the effects of displacement of fishing exploitation to adjacent areas.These data will be contextualised with the relative abundance of predators of fish (seabirds, marine mammals) in MREI and adjacent areas together with how fish and shellfish movements and space use change in response to variations in the physical environment (wave height, current velocity) will allow a deeper understanding of the drivers of distributional change in target species in MREI and adjacent areas. The proposed research will benefit from using novel tracking technologies, including an acoustic monitoring array that is unique to the UK, to obtain the first long-term movement data for multiple species around MREI sites.