Facilitating the flow of information between policy-makers and scientists in Sub-SaDear haran Africa.

通过我的研究和为ACX进行的为期12个月的范围界定研究，我已经与主要利益相关者和在地方、国家和国际层面具有影响力的个人建立了许多良好的个人关系。我已经成功地将UoR的气候科学家和非政府组织CAFOD的撒哈拉以南团队与IoP非洲运动联系起来，以支持撒哈拉以南非洲6个不同国家的小学天气气候科学教学。一份提案将很快提交给Comic Relief以获得资金。通过利用西非预报员手册KE项目建立的链接，以及我与非洲气象应用促进发展中心（ACMAD, Zilore Mumba）共同领导的一个章节，向初级和二级用户提供服务。当地预报员作为天气预报科学知识的主要使用者，与农业、水文和水资源规划、卫生流行病学、能源、渔业、航运和近海石油生产等各个部门的次要使用者，即他们的客户有直接联系。通过我与AMMA和Africa-THORPEX的研究联系。我将利用我与研究人员的积极参与，分享ACX的学习成果，以及与政策制定者联系的机会。通过我与雷丁国际化战略相关的工作。作为大学苏丹倡议的一部分，我目前正在喀土穆组织一个讲习班。这将有助于与苏丹的高等教育机构和政府部长建立新的关系，并有助于与设在喀土穆的国家气象服务机构和非政府组织举行会议。随着联谊活动的进展，这一倡议将产生许多协同效应。产生经济影响的潜在机会：通过行业对获取气候信息的兴趣，存在增强经济影响的机会。我将利用我目前的研究联系，通过联合监督的研究项目来支持非洲高等教育机构的能力，类似于雷丁大学使用的模式。Hiscox灾难建模-我刚刚获得了霍奇斯博士（NCEO/ESSC）的案例奖学金，从2011年10月开始在金融服务部门工作。人们对与非洲天气系统有关的飓风活动的气候信息非常感兴趣。同时，辉固GEOS（为石油公司提供测量、咨询和预测服务）对非洲飑线对几内亚湾石油平台的影响感兴趣。此外，我将利用我参加的欧盟首脑会议，与对非洲有浓厚投资兴趣的行业（例如非洲）建立新的联系。道达尔、壳牌、沃达丰)。这些款项可透过ACX的慈善基金，进一步支持ACX的活动。在学校内部：雷丁正在与英国气象局合作开发一门新的非洲气象学硕士课程。通过ACX形成的新的研究伙伴关系将受益于这些课程，以及通过与非洲高等教育机构的联合监督安排远程支持博士生的兴趣。我将提请与我在非洲ACX合作的高等教育机构注意这些问题，以帮助开展新的研究和教学合作。我们还就与Polcher教授（AMMA-EU负责人，巴黎LMD研究主任）牵头的欧洲撒哈拉以南非洲学生远程学习课程进行了初步讨论。IT行业：移动电话通信和云计算也有商机。新的ESSC虚拟天文台提供了将工业界与决策者和最终用户联系起来的机会。对移动预警系统的新商业投资将为非洲带来技术发展和再投资机会，并可能创造就业机会。如何以及为什么我可以使有效的KE和影响更有可能：英国非洲气候科学界与业务合作伙伴和最终用户建立了零星的、很大程度上相互独立的联系。气候科学需要在用户社区之间得到重点关注和有效转化，以最大限度地在地方驱动的适应和缓解解决方案方面取得进展。通过在科学-政策界面工作并沉浸在所需的KE活动中，我可以将自己的技能和KE经验以及在非洲工作的经验（见第9、10节）结合起来，通过与政策制定者对话并确定他们的优先事项，将我们的气候科学界聚集在一起，并确定研究方向。范围研究和支持信证实了科学界有兴趣通过我协调的ACX活动来做这件事。如果没有这个奖学金来创建和管理ACX计划，气候科学家和决策者之间的障碍将继续存在。通过建立一种机制，使处于研究前沿的NERC科学家与政府和非政府组织的决策者之间的对话变得更容易、更省时、更有效，社会经济影响将更容易实现。经验教训将通过非洲气候交流门户网站以及通过讨论、交流案例研究报告和演讲广泛分享。假设、风险和缓解措施：在制定ACX计划时，存在许多假设。它们是：(1)我们的气候专业知识将满足利益相关者的不同需求。(2) ACX将对决策者的决策过程产生切实的影响，通过交换知识，我们将了解哪些问题对未来非洲气候科学研究具有重要意义和相关性。(3)建议的活动是鼓励互动的最佳方式。(4)气候变率和变化是决策者需要解决的发展障碍。关键的风险是不同的涉众不愿意参与这个过程。ScopingStudy和支持信反驳了这一点。这降低了关键风险，并支持了前三个假设。我已经能够根据利益相关者的需求制定一套初步研究问题，这些问题与拟议的活动一致，并与我们在雷丁的专业知识相一致。第三个假设是我目前无法解决的。我将继续假设，与政策制定者交流知识是促进发展的最有效工具，但我知道，政策制定者对竞争压力还有许多其他担忧。人口增长、城市化、贫困、市场全球化和土地使用变化。鉴于我刚刚从非洲适应研讨会回来的与会者的热情，最后一个假设是有根据的——气候信息和在适应和气候兼容发展的背景下理解它是至关重要的。我将继续通过保持频繁的一对一讨论来管理这些假设和风险，以了解不同利益相关者的具体需求，确定所有利益相关者的利益和回报，并将这些与ACX目标仔细匹配，以保持利益和投入。我将灵活地管理项目，在生产效率低下的途径上使用分类，并开发新的生产途径。这种影响需要多长时间才能实现？通过1:1的会议，最初的影响将很快显现。衡量影响的短期指标在有时限的工作计划中有详细说明。在苏丹和塞内加尔，促进气候科学家与政府决策者和非政府组织之间的对话和合作所产生的持续社会经济影响很可能在本奖学金结束后继续下去。其他可预期的长期影响措施包括：(1)在未来的IPCC评估报告中改进与政策相关的预测；(2)人道主义/发展政策制定者能够理解并迅速响应来自非洲区域国家卫生保健机构的适当信息——与红十字会激励项目的例子进行比较；(3)在苏丹或塞内加尔发生与气候有关的冲击时，由于决策更加明智，经济影响降低。这些影响的时间是不可预测的，因为它取决于气候相关冲击的时间，以及制定和实施新政策的时间表，但我们预计会在5-10年内看到影响。ACX将如何维持？ACX将是可持续的，通过(i)在利益相关者之间建立新的关系——一个成功的合作建立的关系超越了一个项目的生命周期，可以在未来的某个时候借鉴；（ii）“口口相传”的知识分享；（iii）雷丁对ACX门户网站的持续财政支持——通过持续的案例研究和连接来充实该门户网站，将仍然是NERC科学家实现其影响计划的最有效方式；（iv）获得额外资金，将ACX的交流和联盟方法框架扩展到其他撒哈拉以南国家。(i) - (iii)可能发生。（iv）将通过任务4进行调查-按以下顺序召开会议讨论正在进行的资金：英国政府（DFID）公司业务/基金会；洛克菲勒基金会（UoR已经获得了基金会的赠款，用于支持东非的洛克菲勒气候变化小组）；沃达丰基金会（Vodafone Foundation）是撒哈拉以南非洲电信行业的主要参与者。

Through my research and the 12 month scoping study for the ACX, I have already built many excellentpersonal relationships with key stakeholders and individuals with influential voices at local, national andinternational levels. I have successfully connected UoR climate scientists and the Sub-Saharan teamin CAFOD (NGO) to the IoP Campaign for Africa, to support the teaching of weathe-rclimate science atprimary school level in 6 different countries across Sub-Saharan Africa. A proposal will shortly besubmitted to Comic Relief for funding.Through using links developed through the West Africa Forecasters Handbook KE project andmy co-leadership of a chapter with the African Centre of Meteorological Applications forDevelopment (ACMAD, Zilore Mumba) to primary and secondary users. The local forecasters asprimary users of scientific knowledge of weather prediction, have direct links to secondary users,their customers, in various sectors including agriculture, hydrology and water resource planning,health epidemiology, energy, fisheries, shipping and off-shore oil production.Through my research links with AMMA and Africa-THORPEX. I will use my active participationwith researchers to share the learning of the ACX and the opportunities offered to link through tothe policy-makers.Through my work linked to Reading’s Internationalisation Strategy. I am currently organising aworkshop in Khartoum as part of the University’s Sudan Initiative. This will prove useful inbuilding new relationships with the HEIs and government ministers in Sudan and for meetingswith the National Met Services and NGOs based in Khartoum. There will be many subsequentsynergies with this initiative that I can use as the Fellowship activities progress.Potential opportunities for generating economic impact: Opportunities to enhance economicimpact exist through industry interest in obtaining climate information. I will exploit myc urrent researchlinks to support capacity at African HEIs through jointly supervised research projects, similar to themodel used in Reading eg. Hiscox Catastrophe Modelling – I have just been awarded a CASEStudentship with Dr Hodges (NCEO/ESSC), starting October 2011 working in the Financial servicesector. There is a high degree of interest in climate information in relation to hurricane activity linked toAfrican weather systems. Also with Fugro GEOS - Measurement, consultancy and forecasting servicefor oil companies - interested in understanding the impact of African squal llines on oil platforms in theGulf of Guinea.In addition, I will exploit the EU summit meetings I participate in, to develop new contacts with industrythat have strong investment interests in Africa (eg. TOTAL, Shell, Vodafone). These can be channeledto provide further support for the ACX activities through their charitable foundations.Within the School: Reading is developing a new MSc courses on African Meteorology in partnershipwith the Met Office. The new research partnerships formed through the ACX will benefit from thesecourses and the interest in supporting PhD students remotely through joint supervision arrangementswith African HEIs. I will bring these to the attention of the HEIs I work with in the Africa ACX to helpgenerate new research and teaching collaborations. We have also had preliminary discussions to linkup with the European distance learning course for Sub-Saharan African students, spear-headedby Prof Polcher (Head of AMMA-EU, Director of Research for LMD, Paris).IT Sector: There are also business opportunities for mobile phone communications and cloudcomputing. The new ESSC Virtual Observatory offers opportunities for linking industry to decisionmakersand end-users. New business investment in mobile Early Warning Systems wil l bringtechnological development and reinvestment opportunities to Africa with potential job creation .How and why I can make effective KE and impact more probable: The UK Africa Climate sciencecommunity have developed links with operational partners and end-users sporadically and largely independently of each other. Climate science needs to be focused and translated effectively betweenuser communities to maximise progress towards locally-driven adaptation and mitigation solutions. Byworking at the science-policy interface and being immersed in the KE activities needed, I can bring myskills and experience of KE and working in Africa (see Sections 9, 10) to bring our climate sceincecommunity together and focus research direction through dialogue with pol icy-makers and throughidentifying their priorities. The scoping study and letters of support confirm the science community’sPage 8 of 22interest in doing this through the ACX activities I co-ordinate. Without this fellowship to create andmanage the ACX initiative, barriers will remain between climate scientists and policy-makers. Socioeconomicimpact will be more achievable through establishing a mechanism whereby dialoguebetween NERC scientists at the forefront of their research and policy makers in government andNGO’s will be made easier, less time-consuming and more effective. Lessons learned will be sharedwidely through the Africa Climate Exchange portal and through discussion, reports of exchange casestudies and presentations.Assumptions, risks and mitigation: There were a number of assumptions when the ACX plan wasformed. These were:(1) Our climate expertise will match the stakeholders’ different needs .(2) The ACX will make a tangible difference to the decision process for policy-makers and inexchanging knowledge we will learn which questions are significant and relevant for future Africanclimate science research.(3) The proposed activities are the best way to encourage interactions.(4) Climate variability and change is a barrier to development that the policy-makers need to address.The key risk is that the different stakeholders will not want to engage with the process. The ScopingStudy and the letters of support refute this. This mitigates the key risk and supports the first threeassumptions. I have been able to develop a set of preliminary research questions based onstakeholder need that is congruent with the proposed activities and compatible with the expertise wehave at Reading. The third assumption is not one that I can resolve at the moment. I will continue toassume that exchanging knowledge with policy-makers is the most effective tool to development but Iknow that policy-makers have many other concerns with competing pressures eg. population growth,urbanisation, poverty, globalisation of markets and land-use changes. The last assumption is wellfoundedgiven the passion of the participants at the Africa Adapt Symposium I have just come backfrom - climate information and understanding it in the context of adaptation and climate compatibledevelopment is paramount. I will continue to manage these assumptions and risks by maintainingfrequent one-to-one discussions to understand different stakeholder specific needs, to identify benefitsand rewards to all stakeholders and to match these carefully to the ACX objectives to maintain interestand input. I will manage the project flexibly, using triage on underproductive avenues and developingnew productive ones.How long it will take for the impact to be realised? The initial impact will be quick through the 1:1meetings. The short term metrics for measuring impact are detailed in the time-bound work PlanSustained socio-economic impacts from facilitating conversation and these consortia collaborationbetween climate scientists and government policy-makers and NGOs in Sudan and Senegal are likelyto continue after the lifetime of this fellowship. Other long-term measures of impact that could beexpected include: (1) Improved policy-relevant predictions in future IPCC Assessment Reports; (2)Humanitarian/development policy-makers able to understand and respond rapidly to appropriateinformation from the regional NMHS within Africa - compare with Red Cross example motivating theproject; (3) Reduced economic impact in Sudan or Senegal in the event of a climate-related shock dueto better informed policy-making. The timing of these impacts is unpredictable as it depends on thetiming of a climate-related shock, and the timescale for new policies to be developed and implementedbut we would expect to see impact within 5-10 years.How will the ACX be sustained? The ACX will be sustainable through (i) the new relationships builtbetween stakeholders - a successful collaboration develops relationships that go beyond the life-time ofa project and which can be drawn on at some future point; (ii) “word of mouth” knowledge sharing; (iii)Reading’s continued financial support for the ACX portal – populating the portal with continued casestudiesand connections will remain the the most effective way for NERC scientists to realize theirImpact Plan; and (iv) securing additional funding to extend the ACX framework of exchange andconsortia approach to other Sub-Saharan countries.(i) - (iii) are likely. (iv) will be investigated throughTask 4 - setting up meetings to discuss ongoing funding, in the following order, with :1. UK government (DFID)2. Corporate business/foundations eg. Rockefeller Foundation (UoR already has a Foundation grantto support the Rockefeller Climate Change Units in East Africa); and Vodafone Foundation (whoare the prime player in the telecommunications sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.