Improved Prediction of 21st Century West Antarctic Climate Change: the Role of the Amundsen Sea Low

南极西部冰盖包含超过220万立方公里的冰，如果全部融化，将使全球海平面上升约5米。在过去的几十年里，南极洲西部经历了一次显著的变暖。整个冰盖表面的气温都在上升，但除此之外，温暖的洋流也在融化到达海洋的冰盖。最终的结果是，流向西南极洲海岸的一些冰一直在加速变薄，以至于西南极洲沿海地区现在对全球海平面上升的贡献接近10%。南极洲西部的气候受到南极半岛和罗斯海之间的南大洋上的风暴的强烈影响，这些风暴迫使温暖的海洋空气穿过冰盖。在南大洋的这个区域有大量的风暴，这些风暴被统称为阿蒙森海低压。这是一个高度可变的特征，受到臭氧“空洞”和热带太平洋气候条件的影响。了解南极洲西部的气候在未来一个世纪将如何变化是极其重要的，这样我们才能对海平面上升作出准确的估计。然而，我们预测未来的唯一工具是模拟地球上的大气、海洋和冰的计算机模型。这些模型作为诸如政府间气候变化专门委员会等倡议的一部分运行，其空间分辨率相对较低，约为200公里，这不足以准确解决诸如南极洲西部海岸等地区复杂的山地地形。在这个项目中，我们将运行一个分辨率为10公里的模型，通过21世纪来创建迄今为止最详细的信息，即温度、降雪和风速/风向将如何随着温室气体浓度的增加和臭氧空洞的恢复而变化。这些数据对南极西部冰盖的建模工作很有价值，能够更好地预测冰盖在未来一个世纪将如何变化及其对海平面上升的影响。

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains over 2.2 million cubic kilometers of ice, which if it all melted would raise global sea level by about 5 metres. Over the last few decades West Antarctica has experienced a significant warming. Air temperatures have increased across the surface of the ice sheet, but in addition warmer ocean currents have been melting the ice sheet where it reaches the ocean. The net result has been that some of the ice flowing down to the coast of West Antarctica has been accelerating and thinning so that the coastal area of West Antarctica is now contributing almost 10% to the current rise in global sea level.The climate of West Antarctica is strongly influenced by the storms over the Southern Ocean between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea which force warm, maritime air across the ice sheet. There are a large number of storms in this area of the Southern Ocean which are collectively called the Amundsen Sea Low. This is a highly variable feature and is influenced by the ozone 'hole' and climatic conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean.It is extremely important to know how the climate of West Antarctica will change over the coming century so that we can produce accurate estimates of sea level rise. However, the only tools we have to predict the future are computer models that simulate the atmosphere, ocean and ice across the Earth. These models run as part of initiatives such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have a relatively coarse spatial resolution of about 200 km, which is not sufficient to accurately resolve the complex mountainous terrain of areas such as the coast of West Antarctica. For this project we will run a model with a resolution of 10 km through the 21st century to create the most detailed information yet produced of how temperature, snowfall and wind speed/direction will change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the ozone hole recovers. Such data will be of value to those modelling the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and enable the production of better predictions of how the ice sheet will change over the coming century and the contribution it will make to sea level rise.