Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding (Project SINATRA)

Sinatra项目响应了NERC的号召，对强降雨引发的洪水(FFIR)进行了研究，该计划旨在促进对决定FFIR的概率、发生率和影响的过程的一般科学理解。这种极端降雨事件可能最多只持续几个小时，但可能会产生可怕的和破坏性的洪水。它们的影响可能受到一系列因素(或过程)的影响，例如降雨的位置和强度、降雨落在的集水区的形状和陡度、水移动了多少泥沙以及洪水路径上的社区的脆弱性。此外，FFIR的本质是快速的，这使得研究人员很难在事件期间‘捕捉’测量结果。FFIR的复杂性、速度和现场测量的缺乏使得创建计算机模型来预测洪水变得困难，而且我们往往不确定其准确性。为了解决这些问题，NERC启动了FFIR研究计划。它旨在通过改进我们对导致FFIR的气象(天气)、水文(洪水)和水文形态(洪水移动的沉积物和碎片)过程的识别和预测，来减少地表水和山洪的风险。该方案的一项主要要求是确定由于诸如集水区面积、形状、地质和土壤类型以及土地利用等因素，特定的集水区如何容易受到红外线的影响。Sinatra项目将分三个阶段解决这些问题：首先，增加我们对导致FFIR的因素的了解，收集新的、高分辨率的FFIR测量结果；其次，利用这种新的理解和数据来改进FFIR模型，以便我们能够预测它们可能发生在哪里--在全国范围内；第三，利用这些新的发现和预测，为环境署和专业人士提供他们可以用来管理FFIR的信息和软件，减少它们对社区的损害和影响。更详细地说，我们将：1.通过以下方式加强对FFIR控制过程的科学理解：(A)收集英国过去FFIR事件及其影响的档案，作为提高我们预测FFIR未来发生的能力的先决条件。(B)使用实地考察和群众外包方法，实时观察洪水事件期间的洪水以及事件后调查和历史事件重建。(C)通过确定与FFIR事件相关的大尺度大气条件，并将其与集水区类型联系起来，来表征英国夏季洪水事件的物理驱动因素。发展改进的计算机模拟能力，以预测FFIR过程，办法是：(A)在高时空尺度上对FFIR采用集水/城市尺度综合模拟方法，模拟对城市地区山洪及其影响的快速集水区反应。(B)通过改进FFIR区域尺度模型中快速河流和地表水洪水以及水生变化(包括泥石流)的表示，扩大到更大流域的比例。(C)通过将河流径流和快速径流过程结合在一起，并将土壤水分和河流流量同化到模型中，改进FFIR在Jules陆地表面模型中的表示。将这些科学成果转化为实际工具，以便更有效地告知公众，办法是：(A)开发能够预测未来FFIR影响的工具，以支持洪水预报中心发布关于其发生的新的“基于影响的”警告。(B)开发FFIR分析工具，以评估在知识不完整的复杂情况下与罕见事件相关的风险，类似于为放射性废物管理的安全评估而开发的工具。

Project SINATRA responds to the NERC call for research on flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) with a programme of focused research designed to advance general scientific understanding of the processes determining the probability, incidence, and impacts of FFIR.Such extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. To address these issues, NERC launched the FFIR research programme. It aims to reduce the risks from surface water and flash floods by improving our identification and prediction of the meteorological (weather), hydrological (flooding) and hydro-morphological (sediment and debris moved by floods) processes that lead to FFIR. A major requirement of the programme is identifying how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and ungauged.Project SINATRA will address these issues in three stages: Firstly increasing our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR; Secondly using this new understanding and data to improve models of FFIR so we can predict where they may happen - nationwide and; Third to use these new findings and predictions to provide the Environment Agency and over professionals with information and software they can use to manage FFIR, reducing their damage and impact to communities. In more detail, we will:1. Enhance scientific understanding of the processes controlling FFIR, by-(a) assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR.(b) making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods.(c) characterising the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by identifying the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with FFIR events, and linking them to catchment type.2. Develop improved computer modelling capability to predict FFIR processes, by-(a) employing an integrated catchment/urban scale modelling approach to FFIR at high spatial and temporal scales, modelling rapid catchment response to flash floods and their impacts in urban areas.(b) scaling up to larger catchments by improving the representation of fast riverine and surface water flooding and hydromorphic change (including debris flow) in regional scale models of FFIR.(c) improving the representation of FFIR in the JULES land surface model by integrating river routing and fast runoff processes, and performing assimilation of soil moisture and river discharge into the model run.3. Translate these improvements in science into practical tools to inform the public more effectively, by-(a) developing tools to enable prediction of future FFIR impacts to support the Flood Forecasting Centre in issuing new 'impacts-based' warnings about their occurrence.(b) developing a FFIR analysis tool to assess risks associated with rare events in complex situations involving incomplete knowledge, analogous to those developed for safety assessment in radioactive waste management.In so doing SINATRA will achieve NERC's science goals for the FFIR programme.