DYNAMICS AND THRESHOLDS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN WOODED LANDSCAPES

林地为人们提供了许多好处，包括木材生产、娱乐场所和碳储存，这有助于降低气候变化的风险。这种益处被称为“生态系统服务”。林地也是野生动物的重要栖息地，包括树种和依赖它们的动植物。然而，由于气候变化、空气污染、过度放牧以及病虫害蔓延的综合影响，英国和世界许多其他地区的林地目前正处于危险之中。这些因素可以相互作用，导致森林生态系统的崩溃，并被其他植物群落取代。需要进行研究，以确定哪些林地地区有发生这种崩塌的风险，以便确定适当的管理对策。还需要关于这种“生态系统门槛”通过改变生态系统服务的提供对野生动物和人类的潜在影响的信息。该项目旨在通过研究新森林国家公园的林地来提供这方面的信息。在这里，我们将检查50年来在一片林地收集的数据，在那里，许多树木最近已经死亡，但没有被取代。我们将利用这些信息，看看是否可以确定任何指标，这些指标可以用来预测未来是否会在其他林地发生这样的坍塌。我们还将研究树木物种丧失的潜在影响，如虫害或疾病爆发可能对整个新森林景观中的野生动物和提供生态系统服务造成的影响。我们还将探讨其他类型的环境变化可能产生的影响，包括气候变化、空气污染和过度放牧。我们将研究对养分循环、碳储存、木材生产和林地娱乐价值的影响。这将使用现场数据和计算机模型的组合来实现，我们将使用这些模型来预测这种影响可能如何在景观规模上发生。该项目将有助于加深对林地如何发生重大生态变化及其潜在影响的了解。这些信息将有助于查明哪些林地特别有可能面临生态崩溃的风险，以及今后如何通过制定适当的管理和政策对策来避免此类问题。

Woodlands provide a number of benefits to people, including timber production, areas for recreation, and the storage of carbon, which can help reduce the risk of climate change. Such benefits are referred to as 'ecosystem services'. Woodlands are also an important habitat for wildlife, including both tree species and the plants and animals that depend on them. However, woodlands in the UK, and in many other parts of the world, are currently at risk, because of the combined effects of climate change, aerial pollution, overgrazing and the spread of pests and diseases. These factors can interact with each other, leading to the collapse of wooded ecosystems and their replacement with other plant communities. Research is needed to identify which woodland areas are at risk of such collapse occurring, so that appropriate management responses can be identified. Information is also needed on the potential impacts of such "ecosystem thresholds", both on wildlife and on humans, through changes in the provision of ecosystem services. This project aims to provide this information, by studying woodlands in the New Forest National Park. Here, we will examine data that have been collected over a period of 50 years in a woodland in which many trees have recently died, but have not been replaced. We will use this information to see whether any indicators can be identified, which could be used to predict whether such collapses might occur in other woodlands in the future. We will also study the potential impacts of the loss of tree species, as might result from a pest or disease outbreak, both on wildlife and the provision of ecosystem services, throughout the New Forest landscape. We will also explore the possible impacts of other types of environmental change, including climate change, aerial pollution and overgrazing. We will examine impacts on nutrient cycling, carbon storage, timber production and the value of woodlands for recreation. This will be achieved using a combination of field data and computer models, which we will use to forecast how such impacts might occur at the landscape scale. The project will help increase understanding of how major ecological changes occur in woodlands, and their potential impacts. This information will be of value for identifying which woodlands are particularly at risk of ecological collapse, and how such problems may be averted in future, through the development of appropriate management and policy responses.