Integration of improved understanding of ecosystem service regulation into ERSEM model system

世界海洋是高度多样化的生态系统的家园，其特点是物种丰富。海洋生态系统为人类提供一系列重要服务，包括粮食生产、通过碳和其他常量营养素的循环调节气候，以及一系列文化价值（如娱乐、旅游）。它们严重减少，主要是由于过度捕捞、污染以及气候变化的直接和间接影响。在许多地方，来自人类活动和气候变化的压力与物种组成的急剧变化有关，称为阶段或政权转移，这通常是持久的，难以逆转。我们对英国沿海和陆架海生态系统的了解是有限的，许多过程知之甚少。例如，物理和化学环境的变化（温度、循环、光可用性、营养物）主要影响藻类生长，从而通过自下而上的控制影响食物网，而捕捞等影响作用于鱼类，改变了较低营养水平的生物量，从而改变了对捕食的控制。然而，这些过程的相对作用以及环境变化通过海洋食物网级联并影响生态系统服务的程度需要加以阐明。我们面临的挑战是进一步发展现有的ERSEM-NEMO建模框架，以更好地代表各种时空尺度上与生物多样性相关的过程、流动和反馈，并能够在生态系统服务的背景下对功能变化和这种变化的后果进行建模。此外，这些建模工具需要适合于测试海洋养护区等潜在管理解决方案对各种规模的海洋食物网的结构和功能的影响，并探索良好环境状况具体指标的功效。海洋生态系统建模的一个巨大挑战是捕捉生物多样性的等级性质，从而探索一系列尺度。这需要一个可扩展的模型系统，具有可追溯的层次结构，从而使更复杂的食物网结构可以系统地和连贯地与简单的食物网结构相关。该项目将提供新的建模工具，提供关键信息的估计数，以帮助解决关键的科学问题，并更好地了解海洋生态系统对全球变化和直接人为压力的反应。预测工具和新知识的结合将为海洋政策的制定和实施以及海洋预报系统的实施提供基础。

SummaryThe world's oceans and seas are home to highly diverse ecosystems and are characterised by the richness and abundance of species. Marine ecosystems provide a range of important services to mankind including food production, climate regulation through the cycling of carbon and other macronutrients, and a range of cultural values (e.g. recreation, tourism). They are in serious decline, primarily as a result of over-harvesting, pollution, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. In many locations, pressure from human activity and climatic changes have been associated with dramatic shifts in species composition, known as phase or regime shifts, which are often long lasting and difficult to reverse.Our understanding of the ecosystems of the UK's coastal and shelf seas is limited and many processes are poorly understood. For example changes in the physical and chemical environment (temperature, circulation, light availability, nutrients) mainly affect algal growth and thus impact the foodweb through bottom up control, whilst impacts such as harvesting act on fish which modify the biomass of lower trophic levels thus altering the controls from predation. However the relative roles of these processes and hence the extent to which environmental change cascades through marine food webs and affects ecosystem services requires elucidation. Our challenge is to further develop the existing ERSEM-NEMO modelling framework to better represent biodiversity-relevant processes, flows and feedbacks over a range of spatio-temporal scales, and to be able to model changes in function and the consequences of such changes in the context of ecosystem services. Furthermore these modelling tools need to be suitable for testing the impact of potential management solutions, such as marine conservation zones, on the structure and function of marine food webs across scales, and to explore the efficacy of specific indicators of good environmental status. A big challenge in modelling marine ecosystems is to capture the hierarchical nature of biodiversity and hence to explore a range of scales. This requires a scalable model system, with a traceable hierarchy whereby more complex foodweb structures can be systematically and coherently related to simple foodweb structures. The project will provide new modelling tools which provide estimates of crucial information to help resolve key scientific questions as well as provide a better understanding of the marine ecosystems as they respond to global change and direct anthropogenic pressures. The combination of predictive tools and new knowledge will underpin the development and implementation of marine policy and the implementation of marine forecast systems.