Coastal Resilience to flooding Impact through relocatable Storm surge forecasting Capability for developing nations (C-RISC)

沿海地区的洪水恢复能力 通过可重新定位的风暴潮预报的影响 发展中国家的能力 (C-RISC)

• 批准号: NE/R009406/1
• 负责人: Jason Holt
• 金额: $ 12.91万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009406%2F1
• 关键词: Coastal; Resilience; flooding; Impact; through

While the marine environment represents a substantial resource for growing coastal communities around the world it also can represent a substantial hazard to the life and livelihood of these communities. An important marine hazard arises from storms and their consequent surges. Surges are large scale increases in sea level resulting from a combination low atmospheric pressure and high winds. They lead to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and salt intrusion. In turn this results in loss of life, destruction of property and degradation of agricultural land. They are a global hazard that particularly impacts low lying coastal communities. In many places these are the poorest and most vulnerable communities. The provision of accurate and timely sea level forecasts can be of substantial benefit to avoiding and mitigating this hazard, by giving advanced warning to the communities and emergency services, in a similar way that weather forecasts provide warning of extreme rain or wind conditions. In this project we aim to provide a cost effective storm surge forecasts system that can be readily deployed for any coastal region of the world. We build on numerical ocean modelling capability developed in several of NERC project over the last decade. These have included projects focusing on Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry, on Ocean-Shelf transport and also NERC's National Capability Programme in Ocean Modelling. All of these required the development of highly accurate shelf sea models, include relevant physical processes of tides and wind-driven sea level variability.In this project we will develop the software capability to transfer the modelling approaches in these NERC projects to any sea region in the world and run as a storm surge forecast model, with simplified physics. These will be tested in NW European shelf seas and our demonstrator region in the Western Indian Ocean around Madagascar. To provide a reliable forecast set up we will transfer this system to a cloud computing service. Such services run by, e.g., Microsoft and Amazon, allow a user to rent a computer facility that is maintained 24/7, has a high level of reliability and can be duplicated. Importantly, it can be accessed anywhere in the world, removing the need to remotely setup a system on a partner organisation's computer. Once setup on the cloud service, we will run a trial operational period during the 2018/19 cyclone season to test the system. Throughout the project we will work with two key stakeholders in Madagascar: the Centre National de Recherches Océanographiques (CNRO) is a public institute focusing on Oceanographic Research, tasked with responding to Government needs in this area and Direction Generale de la Meteorologie (DGM) is the Madagascan Met Office, who provide a cyclone warning service. We will provide a training session on the operational system and adapt to their needs regarding forecast data products and the potential to continue the service beyond the project.

尽管海洋环境代表着世界各地不断发展的沿海社区的大量资源，但它也可能代表着这些社区的生活和生计的巨大危害。暴风雨及其随之而来的潮流引起的一个重要的海洋危害。由于组合低大气压和大风而导致的海平面大规模增加。它们导致沿海洪水，沿海侵蚀和盐分侵入。反过来，这导致生命损失，财产破坏和农业土地的退化。它们是一种全球危害，特别影响了低沿岸社区的危险。在许多地方，这些是最贫穷，最脆弱的社区。提供准确，及时的海平面预测可以通过向社区和紧急服务发出高级警告，以类似的方式提供高度降雨或风条件的警告，可以避免和减轻这种危害。在这个项目中，我们旨在提供一种具有成本效益的风暴森林系统，可以轻松地为世界上任何沿海地区部署。我们建立在过去十年中NERC项目中开发的数值海洋建模功能的基础上。其中包括着重于货架海生物地球化学，海岸运输和NERC国家模型的国家能力计划的项目。所有这些都需要开发高度准确的货架海模型，包括潮汐和风向海平面可变性的相关物理过程。在本项目中，我们将开发软件能力，以将这些NERC项目中的建模方法传输到世界上任何海上地区的任何海洋地区，并以简化的物理学作为风暴浪潮预报模型运行。这些将在西北欧洲货架海和我们在马达加斯加西部西部的示威者地区进行测试。为了提供可靠的预测设置，我们将将此系统传输到云计算服务。这样的服务由Microsoft和Amazon运营，允许用户租用维护24/7的计算机设施，具有很高的可靠性，并且可以重复。重要的是，它可以在世界任何地方访问，从而消除了在合作伙伴组织的计算机上远程设置系统的需求。一旦在云服务上进行了设置，我们将在2018/19旋风季节运行试用期，以测试系统。在整个项目中，我们将与马达加斯加的两个主要利益相关者合作：国家民族中心Océanographeques（CNRO）是一家专注于海洋学研究的公共研究所，负责满足该领域的政府需求，并指导Gersale de la Meteorologie（DGM），是马达加斯加Met Office，是Madagascan Met Office，Who提供了一项旋风巡回服务。我们将提供有关运营系统的培训课程，并适应他们有关预测数据产品的需求，并有可能继续服务超越项目。