Coastal Resilience to flooding Impact through relocatable Storm surge forecasting Capability for developing nations (C-RISC)

沿海地区的洪水恢复能力 通过可重新定位的风暴潮预报的影响 发展中国家的能力 (C-RISC)

• 批准号: NE/R009406/1
• 负责人: Jason Holt
• 金额: $ 12.91万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009406%2F1
• 关键词: Coastal; Resilience; flooding; Impact; through

While the marine environment represents a substantial resource for growing coastal communities around the world it also can represent a substantial hazard to the life and livelihood of these communities. An important marine hazard arises from storms and their consequent surges. Surges are large scale increases in sea level resulting from a combination low atmospheric pressure and high winds. They lead to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and salt intrusion. In turn this results in loss of life, destruction of property and degradation of agricultural land. They are a global hazard that particularly impacts low lying coastal communities. In many places these are the poorest and most vulnerable communities. The provision of accurate and timely sea level forecasts can be of substantial benefit to avoiding and mitigating this hazard, by giving advanced warning to the communities and emergency services, in a similar way that weather forecasts provide warning of extreme rain or wind conditions. In this project we aim to provide a cost effective storm surge forecasts system that can be readily deployed for any coastal region of the world. We build on numerical ocean modelling capability developed in several of NERC project over the last decade. These have included projects focusing on Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry, on Ocean-Shelf transport and also NERC's National Capability Programme in Ocean Modelling. All of these required the development of highly accurate shelf sea models, include relevant physical processes of tides and wind-driven sea level variability.In this project we will develop the software capability to transfer the modelling approaches in these NERC projects to any sea region in the world and run as a storm surge forecast model, with simplified physics. These will be tested in NW European shelf seas and our demonstrator region in the Western Indian Ocean around Madagascar. To provide a reliable forecast set up we will transfer this system to a cloud computing service. Such services run by, e.g., Microsoft and Amazon, allow a user to rent a computer facility that is maintained 24/7, has a high level of reliability and can be duplicated. Importantly, it can be accessed anywhere in the world, removing the need to remotely setup a system on a partner organisation's computer. Once setup on the cloud service, we will run a trial operational period during the 2018/19 cyclone season to test the system. Throughout the project we will work with two key stakeholders in Madagascar: the Centre National de Recherches Océanographiques (CNRO) is a public institute focusing on Oceanographic Research, tasked with responding to Government needs in this area and Direction Generale de la Meteorologie (DGM) is the Madagascan Met Office, who provide a cyclone warning service. We will provide a training session on the operational system and adapt to their needs regarding forecast data products and the potential to continue the service beyond the project.

虽然海洋环境是世界各地不断增长的沿海社区的重要资源，但它也可能对这些社区的生命和生计构成重大危害。一种重要的海洋灾害来自风暴及其引起的涌浪。涌浪是由低气压和强风共同作用导致的海平面大规模上升。它们导致沿海洪水、海岸侵蚀和盐侵入。这反过来又造成生命损失、财产破坏和农田退化。它们是一种全球性的危害，特别影响低洼的沿海社区。在许多地方，这些是最贫穷和最脆弱的社区。提供准确和及时的海平面预报，可以向社区和应急服务部门发出预警，对避免和减轻这一危险有很大的好处，就像天气预报提供极端降雨或大风情况的预警一样。在这个项目中，我们的目标是提供一个具有成本效益的风暴潮预报系统，可以随时部署在世界上任何沿海地区。我们建立在过去十年中NERC几个项目中开发的数值海洋建模能力的基础上。这些项目包括侧重于大陆架海洋生物地球化学、海洋-大陆架迁移的项目，以及NERC的海洋建模国家能力方案。所有这些都需要开发高度精确的陆架海模型，包括潮汐和风驱动海平面变化的相关物理过程。在本项目中，我们将开发软件能力，将NERC项目中的建模方法转移到世界上任何海域，并作为风暴潮预报模型运行，简化物理过程。这些将在西北欧洲大陆架海域和我们在马达加斯加周围的西印度洋的演示区域进行测试。为了提供可靠的预测设置，我们将该系统转移到云计算服务。这些服务由，例如，微软和亚马逊允许用户租用24/7维护的计算机设施，具有高可靠性并且可以复制。重要的是，它可以在世界任何地方访问，无需在合作伙伴组织的计算机上远程设置系统。一旦安装到云服务上，我们将在2018/19飓风季节进行试运行，以测试系统。在整个项目中，我们将与马达加斯加的两个主要利益相关者合作：国家海洋研究中心（CNRO）是一个专注于海洋学研究的公共机构，负责响应政府在这一领域的需求，而Direction Generale de la Meteorologie（DGM）是马达加斯加气象局，提供气旋警报服务。我们将提供关于操作系统的培训课程，并适应他们对预测数据产品的需求，以及在项目结束后继续提供服务的可能性。