Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL sea Ecosystems (ReCICLE)

陆架海和沿海海通过其在吸收和储存大气中的二氧化碳方面的作用，为社会提供重要服务，特别是鱼类提供的食物和气候调节。这些海洋的生态系统易受温室气体排放造成的全球气候变化的影响。因此，能够就气候变化对这些地区的影响提供可靠的未来预测，对于我们了解这些服务可能受到的影响至关重要。拟议工作的总体目的是确定和量化构成陆架海生态系统食物链基础的简单植物生命（浮游植物）今后对气候变化的潜在反应，并评估这种反应的可能范围。为了实现这一点，我们使用了最先进的耦合水动力生态系统模型在一个非常好的分辨率。这是由全球气候模型的输出驱动的，这些模型与生态系统模型结构的各个方面一起沿着被选择，以便涵盖系统对气候变化的潜在反应，并提供一系列未来观点。然后使用统计方法，根据时间序列和类似属性区域的变化来分析这种响应我们重点讨论了西北欧大陆架生态系统响应的六个关键指标（称为中间服务）：初级生产（植物生长），氧吸收，养分运输，吸收和再循环，生物控制（能量和物质如何在食物网的不同层次之间转移），以及水柱的栖息地。气候变化（通过大气、开阔海洋和陆地强迫的变化）对物理和化学过程的影响将以不同方式影响这些关键指标。示例包括：海洋混合的变化改变了陆架海营养物的分布，风混合和光照水平的变化改变了春季浮游植物大量繁殖的时间和规模，海水温度的变化直接影响了生长率。在这些海洋中初级生产力最高的区域，活跃的物理过程一般比许多模式系统所能容纳的尺度更细，例如陡峭多变的地形、富含营养物和沉积物的河水羽流以及混合良好和季节性分层的沃茨之间的锋面所产生的额外混合。气候变化对细尺度过程的潜在影响在很大程度上是未知的，但可能会从根本上改变我们对气候变化在这些海洋中的总体影响的看法。除了物理学的细节，生态系统的复杂性也必须考虑在内。在食物网的底部有几个反馈，它们控制着化学能量如何在系统中循环。如果这一循环的不同要素，例如浮游动物的摄食和细菌的营养循环，以不同的方式对变化作出反应，那么整体效应可能会被放大或抑制。这种放大或抑制决定了覆盖服务的脆弱程度（例如鱼类生产）对气候变化的影响，以及由此产生的潜在社会影响。为了解决这些问题，我们提出了一个紧密结合的方案，包括模型实验设计、模拟、评估和分析，分为四个工作包：实验设计和不确定性，利用观测分析验证模型，生态系统响应分析，模型产品。这将使人们对气候对海洋生态系统的潜在影响有一个前所未有的认识，包括细尺度物理过程的影响、非线性生态系统相互作用以及对可能影响范围的评估。我们将把这些信息浓缩成一套模型产品，供其他学科的科学家和更广泛的利益相关者随时访问。

Shelf and coastal seas provide vital services for society, notably food, from fish, and climate regulation, through their role in drawing down and storing atmospheric CO2. The ecosystems of these seas are vulnerable to global climate change, arising from greenhouse gas emissions. Being able to provide reliable future projections of the impacts of climate change on these regions is therefore vital for our knowledge of how these services may be impacted. The overall purpose of the proposed work is to identify and quantify the potential future response to climate change of the simple plant life (phytoplankton) forming the base of the food chain of the shelf sea ecosystems and to assess the likely range of this response. To deliver this we use a state of the art coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model at an exceptionally fine resolution. This is driven by the output of global climate models, which along with aspects of the ecosystem model structure, are selected so as to span the potential response of the system to climate change, and provide a range of views of the future. Statistical methods are then used to characterise this response in terms of timeseries and changes in areas of similar properties (the biogeography), how clearly the climate signal can be detected and how this signal propagates through the food web.We focus on six key indicators of ecosystem response on the Northwest European Continental shelf (termed intermediate services): primary production (plant growth), oxygen uptake, nutrient transport, uptake and recycling, biological control (how energy and material is transferred between different levels in the food web), and the habitat of the water column. The impact of climate change (through changes in the atmosphere, open ocean and terrestrial forcing) on the physical and chemical processes will affect these key indicators in different ways. Examples include: modification of the shelf sea nutrient distribution by changes in oceanic mixing, changes to the timing and magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms due to changes in wind mixing and light levels, and changes to sea water temperature directly affecting growth rates. The physical processes active in the regions of these seas where primary production is highest are generally of finer scale than many model systems can accommodate, examples include extra mixing generated by steep and variable topography, plumes of nutrient and sediment rich river water, and fronts between well mixed and seasonally stratified waters. The potential effects of climate change on the finescale processes is largely unknown, but may radically change our view of the overall impact of climate change in these seas. Alongside the details of the physics, the complexity of the ecosystem must also be accounted for. There a several feedbacks at the base of the food web, which control how chemical energy cycles through the system. If different elements of this cycle, e.g. grazing by zooplankton and nutrient recycling by bacteria, respond to change in different ways then the overall effect may be amplified or suppressed. This amplification or suppression determines how vulnerable the overlying services (e.g. fish production) are to climate change, and hence the potential societal implications.To address these issues we propose a tightly integrated programme of model experiment design, simulation, evaluation and analysis, organised in four work packages: Experiment design and uncertainty, Model validation using observational analysis, Analysis of ecosystem response, Model products. Together this will produce an unprecedented view of potential climate impacts on marine ecosystems, including the effects of fine-scale physical processes, non-linear ecosystem interactions and an assessment of the range of likely impacts. We will condense this information into a set of model products that are readily accessible by scientists of other disciplines and wider stakeholders.