Coastal-Oceans in Global Climate Models: Assessment and Analysis (CONGA)

沿海和陆架海以及海洋边缘是具有巨大社会意义的区域，例如对于渔业和减少大气二氧化碳。此外，它们使人们面临洪水和海岸侵蚀等危险，也是人们最直接影响海洋环境的地方，例如通过捕鱼和污染。因此，了解气候变化对这些地区的影响至关重要。这种理解通常来自用于大规模预测未来气候变化的全球气候模型。这些模型往往太粗糙，不能指望在沿海和陆架海中闻起来很香，而且往往缺乏在这些海洋中活跃的特定过程，特别是潮汐和河流外流。这些模型正在不断改进，鉴于最近发布的一套全球气候模型预测支持即将发布的政府间气候变化小组第六次评估报告，现在是非常及时的问题：全球气候模型在沿海-海洋的表现如何，这种表现与动力缩小尺度相比如何？动力缩尺是直接使用气候模型的常用替代方案，使用由气候模型驱动的更精细的全球或区域海洋模型。由于海洋模型的多样性以及沿海和陆架海的地理多样性，通过一个国际网络使用一套共同的方法来处理这一问题是适当的。建立国际伙伴关系来建立这一点，然后发展网络是这一提议的重点。我们从海岸和陆架海洋物理及其与生物地球化学的关系开始，这对渔业和水产养殖以及生态系统健康都很重要；例如浮游生物生长和氧气供应。我们的目标是首先确定控制沿海和陆架海气候模式表现的关键物理过程，然后开发一套通用的分析工具，将这些过程的模型与观测和理论估计进行比较。此外，我们的目标是建立一个广泛的国际海洋模型师网络，关注沿海和陆架海的气候影响。这将通过一系列讲习班--包括虚拟讲习班和面对面讲习班--进行，目的是展示在项目中制定的方法，并完善在该项目24个月后继续使用该网络的想法。

Coastal and shelf seas and ocean margins are regions of immense societal importance, e.g. for fisheries and drawing down atmospheric CO2. Also they expose people to hazards such as flooding and coastal erosion, and are where people most directly impact the marine environment, e.g. through fishing and pollution. Hence, it is crucially important to understand how climate change effects these regions. This understanding generally comes from the global climate models used to project future climate change on a large scale. These models are often too coarse to be expect to perfume well in coastal and shelf seas, and often lack the specific processes active in these seas, notably tides and river outflows. These models are continually improving and given the newly released suite of global climate model projections supporting the forthcoming sixth assessment report of the Intergovermental Pannel on Climate Change, it is now very timely to ask: how well do global climate models perform in the coastal-ocean and how does this performance compare with dynamical downscaling? Dynamical downscaling is the commonly employed alternative to direct use of climate models, using finer scale global or regional ocean models driven by the climate model. Because of the diversity of ocean models and the geographic diversity of coastal and shelf seas, it is appropriate to address this question through an international network, using a common set of methods. Building an international partnership to establish this, and then develop the network is the focus of this proposal. We start with a focus on coastal and shelf sea physics and its relationship to biogeochemistry, which are important for fisheries and aquaculture, and ecosystem health; for example plankton growth and oxygen availability. We aim first to identify the key physical processes controlling the climate models' performance in the coastal and shelf seas and we then develop a set of common analysis tools to compare models with observations and theoretical estimates for these processes. Alongside this, we aim to build a broad international network of ocean modellers with an interest in climate impacts in coastal and shelf seas. This will arise through a series of workshops - both virtual and in person, which will aim to demonstrate the approaches developed in project and refine ideas for continuing the network beyond 24-month duration of this project.