Coastal-Oceans in Global Climate Models: Assessment and Analysis (CONGA)

全球气候模型中的沿海海洋：评估和分析（CONGA）

• 批准号: NE/V008552/1
• 负责人: Jason Holt
• 金额: $ 12.81万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV008552%2F1
• 关键词: Coastal; Oceans; Global; Climate; Models

Coastal and shelf seas and ocean margins are regions of immense societal importance, e.g. for fisheries and drawing down atmospheric CO2. Also they expose people to hazards such as flooding and coastal erosion, and are where people most directly impact the marine environment, e.g. through fishing and pollution. Hence, it is crucially important to understand how climate change effects these regions. This understanding generally comes from the global climate models used to project future climate change on a large scale. These models are often too coarse to be expect to perfume well in coastal and shelf seas, and often lack the specific processes active in these seas, notably tides and river outflows. These models are continually improving and given the newly released suite of global climate model projections supporting the forthcoming sixth assessment report of the Intergovermental Pannel on Climate Change, it is now very timely to ask: how well do global climate models perform in the coastal-ocean and how does this performance compare with dynamical downscaling? Dynamical downscaling is the commonly employed alternative to direct use of climate models, using finer scale global or regional ocean models driven by the climate model. Because of the diversity of ocean models and the geographic diversity of coastal and shelf seas, it is appropriate to address this question through an international network, using a common set of methods. Building an international partnership to establish this, and then develop the network is the focus of this proposal. We start with a focus on coastal and shelf sea physics and its relationship to biogeochemistry, which are important for fisheries and aquaculture, and ecosystem health; for example plankton growth and oxygen availability. We aim first to identify the key physical processes controlling the climate models' performance in the coastal and shelf seas and we then develop a set of common analysis tools to compare models with observations and theoretical estimates for these processes. Alongside this, we aim to build a broad international network of ocean modellers with an interest in climate impacts in coastal and shelf seas. This will arise through a series of workshops - both virtual and in person, which will aim to demonstrate the approaches developed in project and refine ideas for continuing the network beyond 24-month duration of this project.

沿海和大陆架海以及海洋边缘是具有巨大社会重要性的区域，例如对渔业和减少大气中的二氧化碳而言。此外，它们使人们面临洪水和海岸侵蚀等危险，并且是人们最直接影响海洋环境的地方，例如通过捕鱼和污染。因此，了解气候变化如何影响这些地区至关重要。这种理解通常来自用于预测未来大规模气候变化的全球气候模型。这些模型往往过于粗糙，不能期望在沿海和陆架海中发挥良好的作用，而且往往缺乏在这些海洋中活跃的具体过程，特别是潮汐和河流外流。这些模型在不断改进，鉴于新发布的一套全球气候模型预测支持即将发布的政府间气候变化小组第六次评估报告，现在是非常及时的问题：全球气候模型在沿海海洋中的表现如何，这种表现如何与动态降尺度相比？动力降尺度是直接使用气候模式的常用替代方法，使用由气候模式驱动的更精细尺度的全球或区域海洋模式。由于海洋模式的多样性以及沿海和陆架海的地理多样性，通过一个国际网络，使用一套共同的方法来解决这个问题是适当的。建立国际合作伙伴关系，建立这一网络，然后发展是本建议的重点。我们首先关注沿海和大陆架海洋物理学及其与海洋地球化学的关系，这对渔业和水产养殖以及生态系统健康至关重要;例如浮游生物生长和氧气供应。我们的目标首先是确定控制气候模型在沿海和陆架海的性能的关键物理过程，然后我们开发了一套通用的分析工具，以比较这些过程的模型与观测和理论估计。除此之外，我们的目标是建立一个广泛的国际海洋建模网络，对沿海和陆架海的气候影响感兴趣。这将通过一系列虚拟和面对面的研讨会来实现，这些研讨会旨在展示项目中制定的方法，并完善在该项目24个月之后继续建立网络的想法。