MaRIUS: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity

水资源短缺对环境、社会和经济的影响是复杂的。它们在很大程度上是由人类的选择和对水的相互竞争的权衡所决定的。英国目前的干旱管理做法在很大程度上是从经验演变而来的。每一次干旱都以不同的方式考验着机构和社会。然而，这种经验性和启发式的方法是否适合未来的目的是值得怀疑的，因为过去是对未来情况的不完整指南。马里乌斯项目将借鉴全球经验和对社会和环境的其他危害的见解，采用和探索一种基于风险的方法来管理干旱和缺水。马里乌斯将在真实案例研究和未来情景的背景下，展示如何使用风险度量为管理决策和社会准备提供信息。调查将在一系列不同的尺度上进行，从家庭和农场到流域和国家尺度。精细的粒度分析对于了解干旱的影响是必不可少的。更大范围的汇总提供了证据，为水务公司、国家政府和机构的关键决策提供信息。对一系列时间尺度的分析将展示长期规划和短期决策之间的相互作用，以及这对影响和风险的影响。作为基于风险的缺水管理方法的基础，马里乌斯项目将开发一套关于干旱过程和缺水影响的综合模型。过去和未来可能出现的水文气候干旱状况的新“事件集”将使对干旱情景的广泛测试成为可能。干旱过程在流域和国家尺度的水文模型中的表现将得到加强，从而能够改进干旱频率、持续时间和严重程度的分析。将开发河流和水库有害水质风险评估模型。在河流和湿地生态系统，如沼泽、低地和高地沼泽的物种丰度和生物多样性模型中，干旱影响的表现将得到加强。将使用农业做法和产出模式来分析干旱对农业的影响，并调查农民可能采取的准备步骤的益处。将结合对家庭和企业的“自下而上”研究，以及考虑供应链对干旱敏感行业的依赖，来分析缺水造成的潜在经济损失。缺水的环境、经济和社会层面将被综合成一个计算机可视化工具(一个“影响仪表盘”)。这将使对影响之间的反馈进行探索性分析成为可能。例如，部分由干旱频率驱动的农业土地利用变化将反过来影响水质和生态系统。跨学科分析将能够比较应用先前存在的干旱管理安排(例如限制用水、抽水限制)和加强/创新管理战略(例如使用展望预报、动态电价)可能产生的结果。社会科学和利益攸关方的参与深深植根于马吕斯项目，该项目将通过对主要利益攸关方目前如何理解和管理干旱和缺水的影响，以及机构、法规和市场如何影响这一问题的关键分析来确定框架。现在和历史上受缺水影响的社区的亲身经历和“集体记忆”将使人们对干旱的社会和文化层面有新的理解。项目社会科学家、自然科学家和利益攸关方之间的持续接触将有助于确保马吕斯项目的产出，包括“影响仪表板”，与他们的需求和不断变化的政策背景相匹配。

Impacts of water scarcity on the environment, society and the economy are complex. They are profoundly shaped by human choices and trade-offs between competing claims to water. Current practices for management of droughts in the UK have largely evolved from experience. Each drought tests institutions and society in distinctive ways. Yet it is questionable whether this empirical and heuristic approach is fit for purpose in the future, because the past is an incomplete guide to future conditions. The MaRIUS project will introduce and explore a risk-based approach to the management of droughts and water scarcity, drawing upon global experiences and insights from other hazards to society and the environment. MaRIUS will demonstrate, in the context of real case studies and future scenarios, how risk metrics can be used to inform management decisions and societal preparedness. Enquiry will take place at a range of different scales, from households and farms to river basins and national scales. Fine-scale granular analysis is essential for understanding drought impacts. Aggregation to broader scales provides evidence to inform critical decisions in water companies, national governments and agencies. Analysis on a range of timescales will demonstrate the interactions between long-term planning and short-term decision making, and the difference this makes to impacts and risks. Underpinning the risk-based approach to management of water scarcity, the MaRIUS project will develop an integrated suite of models of drought processes and impacts of water scarcity. A new 'event set' of past and possible future hydroclimatic drought conditions will enable extensive testing of drought scenarios. The representation of drought processes in hydrological models at catchment and national scales will be enhanced, enabling improved analysis of drought frequency, duration and severity. Models for assessment of the risks of harmful water quality, in rivers and reservoirs, will be developed. The representation of drought impacts in models of species abundance and biodiversity in rivers and wetland ecosystems, such as fens, lowland and upland bogs, will be enhanced. A model of agricultural practices and output will be used to analyse drought impacts on agriculture and investigate the benefits of preparatory steps that may be taken by farmers. The potential economic losses due to water scarcity will be analysed through a combination of 'bottom-up' study of households and businesses, and consideration of supply chain dependence on drought-sensitive industries. The environmental, economic and social dimensions of water scarcity will be synthesised into a computer visualisation tool (an 'impacts dashboard'). This will enable exploratory analysis of feedbacks between impacts. For example, agricultural land use changes, driven in part by drought frequency, will, in turn, influence water quality and ecosystems. The interdisciplinary analysis will enable comparison of likely outcomes arising from applying both pre-existing drought management arrangements (e.g. restrictions on water use, abstraction limits) and enhanced/innovative management strategies (e.g. use of outlook forecasts, dynamic tariffs).Social science and stakeholder engagement are deeply embedded in the MaRIUS project, which will be framed by a critical analysis of how impacts of droughts and water scarcity are currently understood and managed by key stakeholders, and how this is shaped by institutions, regulation and markets. First-hand experience and 'collective memory' of communities affected now, and historically, by water scarcity will provide new understandings of the social and cultural dimensions of droughts. On-going engagement between the project social scientists, natural scientists and stakeholders will help to ensure that the outputs from the MaRIUS project, including the 'impacts dashboard', are matched to their needs and to the evolving policy context.