Forests at risk: Awakening the UK timber, forest carbon and forest insurance sectors to the threats of pests, disease and drought

拟议项目：由于历史数据的用途有限，对英国森林遭受虫害、疾病和干旱的风险知之甚少。这给森林碳项目、木材生产和保险带来了风险管理和缓解挑战。最初的PURE项目开发了一个模型，用于评估英国林地碳法规下森林碳项目的病虫害（P&D）未来风险。在这个项目中，我们建立了这个纯粹的工作，（NERC/PA 13-021），NERC研究（NE/I 022183/1、NE-J 019720 -1、NE/I 019405/1），以及良好的合作关系（例如见森林风险网络）：（a）将我们的PURE P&D风险工作纳入《林地碳法规》（WCC）下的运营决策中（B）将这项工作的业务用途从森林碳扩大到森林木材;（c）开发新的保险产品。然后将复制这一过程，以适应和实施干旱风险评估模型（Petr等人，2014年），该模型产生的信息不足以用于WCC和保险目的。这两个模型的科学将为最佳实践/指导和决策支持工具的开发提供信息，以满足WCC，木材行业，保险部门以及更广泛的私营和公共森林部门的需求。PURE Associate的风险管理专业知识（最初在投资银行业获得，并通过上述NERC和PURE项目开发和应用于森林融资项目的自然灾害风险）将与林业委员会的利益相关者合作，森林研究和森林资源（设计保险及再保险产品的保险机构）由于森林对英国至关重要，迫切需要减少P&D和干旱的威胁，因此需要开展这项工作。由于森林管理固有的长期性，现在需要采取行动。林地和森林覆盖率约占英国土地总面积的13%（林业委员会，2013年）。初级木材加工和林业部门为经济贡献了19.2亿英镑的总附加值，并为39，000多人创造了就业机会（林业委员会，2013年）。林地更广泛的社会和环境效益每年价值约15亿英镑（威利斯等人，2003年）。森林提供了重要的野生动物栖息地，并在英国1994年生物多样性行动计划中的400种物种中拥有130种。它们还在减缓和适应气候变化方面发挥重要作用，例如碳螯合（Read等人，然而，联合王国的森林面临着风、火、虫害、疾病和干旱等自然灾害的严重威胁。虽然风和火灾的风险相对较好地了解，但对P&D和干旱的未来风险知之甚少，主要由于缺乏适当的信息，很少提供保险。历史数据可以提供一些迹象，说明森林未来可能遭受火灾和风力的风险，但对预测P&D造成的损失用处不大，因为新的P&D可能出现;现有的P & D可能跨越物种;病媒，如航运和进口树苗，随时可能给一个国家带来新的P&D。同样，历史数据对于确定在树木气候耐受极限的地区种植树种的风险也没有多大用处。这增加了他们对干旱的脆弱性。缺乏适当的风险衡量限制了森林碳项目的风险管理和保险减缓。该项目的产出将包括一个修订的P&D模型和一个修订的干旱风险评估，这将产生这些缺失的信息。研究结果将用于支持在WCC下实施更好的风险管理程序;开发新的保险产品;以及修订森林管理人员的决策支持工具，以支持针对这些风险的适应性管理。将向更广泛的森林部门通报和传播结果。

Proposed project: The risks to UK forests from pests, disease and droughts are poorly understood as historical data is of limited use. This brings risk management and mitigation challenges for forest carbon projects, timber production and insurance. The original PURE project developed a model to assess the future risk from pests and diseases (P&D) for forest carbon projects under the UK's Woodland Carbon Code. In this project, we build this PURE work (NERC/PA 13-021), NERC research (NE/I022183/1, NE-J019720-1, NE/I019405/1), and well-established collaborations (see e.g. Forest-Risk Network) to: (a) embed our PURE P&D risk work within operational-decision making under the Woodland Carbon Code (WCC) (b) expand the operational use of this work from forest carbon to forest timber and (c) develop new insurance products. This process will then be replicated to adapt and operationalise a drought risk assessment model (Petr et al. 2014), which produces information inadequate for WCC and insurance purposes. The science from both models will then inform the development of best practice/guidance and decision support tools to meet the needs of the WCC, timber industry, insurance sector as well as the wider private and public forest sectors. The PURE Associate's risk management expertise (originally acquired in investment banking and developed and applied to natural hazard risks to forest finance projects through the NERC and PURE projects listed above) will be partnered with that of stakeholders from the Forestry Commission, Forest Research and ForestRe (an insurance organisation designing insurance and reinsurance products) to deliver these outcomes.The work is needed due to the critical importance of forests to the UK and the urgent need to reduce the threat from P&D and drought. Action is needed now due to the long timescales inherent in forest management. Woodland and forest cover about 13% of the total land area of Great Britain (Forestry Commission, 2013). The primary wood processing and forestry sectors contribute £1.92bn in Gross Value Added to the economy and generate employment for over 39,000 (Forestry Commission, 2013). The wider social and environmental benefits of woodlands are worth around £1.5bn annually (Willis et al., 2003). Forests provide important wildlife habitat and host 130 of the 400 species in the UK's 1994 Biodiversity Action Plan. They also play an important role in mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change e.g. carbon sequestration (Read et al., 2009).However, UK forests face significant threats from natural hazards such as wind, fire, pests, diseases (P&D) and drought. Whilst the risks from wind and fire are relatively well-understood - the future risks from P&D and drought are poorly understood and insurance is rarely provided primarily due to a lack of appropriate information. Historical data can provide some indication of the future risks to forests from fire and wind, but are less useful for predicting losses from P&D as new P&D can arise; existing ones can jump species; and vectors, such as shipping and imported saplings, can bring new P&D to a country at any time. Similarly, historical data are of little use to determine the risk of planting tree species in regions at the limit of the trees' climatic tolerances. This increases their vulnerability to drought. This lack of adequate risk measurement constrains risk management for forest carbon projects and mitigation by insurance. The project outputs will include a revised P&D model and a revised drought risk assessment, which will produce this missing information. The results will be used to support operationalisation into better risk management procedures under the WCC; development of new insurance products; and the revision of decision support tools for forest managers to support adaptive management against these risks. The results will be communicated and disseminated to the wider forest sector.