Developing an integrated framework for investigating biodiversity responses to global environmental change

生物多样性在全球范围内继续下降，尽管人们普遍认识到，人类的生存和生态进程的维持有赖于生物多样性的有效保护。一个主要的挑战是了解生物多样性如何应对全球环境变化，以便我们能够预测和准备应对未来保护威胁的影响。由于气温上升以及干旱和极端事件频率的增加，气候变化将产生一系列新的选择压力，迫使许多物种迁徙以寻找合适的条件或适应。人为的栖息地丧失和土地利用的变化可能会加剧这些压力，限制个体的活动及其在新地区殖民的能力。物种能否对这些威胁做出反应取决于它们对变化的敏感度，它们适应或调整新环境条件的能力，它们离开的能力，以及变化的速度和幅度。由于物种的反应取决于多种因素，研究它们的反应需要来自不同研究领域的不同工具的组合。本项目的目的是通过将遗传工具与生态学、地理数据和计算机模拟相结合，建立一种新的方法来研究生物多样性对全球变化的响应。本项目以几种受到威胁的欧洲森林蝙蝠为研究对象，旨在为全球变化下的生物多样性保护提供证据基础。蝙蝠是生态系统的重要组成部分，通过抑制害虫种群为农业经济做出贡献。由于蝙蝠的高度多样性、广泛的栖息地用途、顶级捕食者的角色以及对土地利用变化的敏感性，蝙蝠可以很好地指示环境和其他野生动物的状况。因此，蝙蝠为研究全球变化的后果提供了一个很好的模型系统。据预测，未来的气候变化将影响许多欧洲蝙蝠的分布，并可能导致它们的遗传多样性严重丧失。森林蝙蝠可能对未来的变化特别敏感，因为整个欧洲的森林碎片化程度很高；一些已经与它们的数量下降有关的因素，可能会限制它们未来迁徙到气候适宜的地区的能力。因此，为了为这一弱势群体设计长期的保护策略，关键是要了解气候和环境如何影响它们的分布和穿越景观的能力，以及它们对环境变化的遗传反应。拟议的项目建立在我整个独立研究生涯中制定的研究计划的基础上，并将受益于布里斯托尔现有的专业知识和最先进的设施，以及项目合作伙伴的广泛多样的专业知识。我将首先使用生态学和数学建模方法来研究气候变化和栖息地丧失将如何相互作用，影响所有欧洲森林蝙蝠的未来分布。聚焦于两种不同分布和生态的蝙蝠(巴巴斯德·巴巴斯太尔和白鼠)，我将从它们的气候梯度调查种群。为了了解是什么推动了对全球变化的进化反应，我将使用下一代测序来研究与种群适应当前环境条件有关的基因。我将开发新的建模工具，将这些局部遗传适应与面临栖息地丧失的人口对未来气候变化的反应联系起来，并预测全球变化的后果。这将使我能够评估种群长期生存的可能性，并确定适当的保护措施。这个项目的一个重要方面是它对我们如何管理我们的环境的影响，因此它包括开发创新的方法来转化科学发现，并将提供资源供政策制定者、规划者和保护管理者使用。

Biodiversity continues to decline worldwide even though it is widely recognised that human survival and the maintenance of ecological processes rely on its effective conservation. A major challenge is to understand how biodiversity responds to global environmental change so we can predict and prepare for the effects of future conservation threats. Climate change will produce a range of new selection pressures due to rising temperatures and increased frequency of droughts and extreme events, forcing many species to move in search of suitable conditions or adapt. Anthropogenic habitat loss and land use changes are likely to intensify these pressures and limit the movement of individuals and their ability to colonise new areas. Whether species can respond to these threats depends on their sensitivity to change, their ability to adapt or adjust to new environmental conditions, their ability to move away, and the rate and magnitude of change. As species' responses depend on a multitude of factors, studying their responses requires a combination of different tools from different research fields. The aim of this project is to establish a new way of studying the responses of biodiversity to global change by combining genetic tools with ecology, geographical data and computer modelling.This project focuses on several threatened European forest bat species with the aim of providing the evidence base for their conservation under global change. Bats are an important part of ecological systems and contribute to the agricultural economy through suppressing insect pest populations. Because of their high diversity, wide habitat use, role as top predators and sensitivity to land use changes, bats can be good indicators of the state of the environment and other wildlife. As such bats offer a good model system for studying the consequences of global change. Future climate change is predicted to affect the distribution of many European bats and may result in high losses of their genetic diversity. Forest bats may be particularly sensitive to future changes because of the high extent of forest fragmentation across Europe; something that has already been linked to their population declines and is likely to limit their ability to move to climatically suitable areas in the future. Therefore in order to design long-term conservation strategies for this vulnerable group it is crucial to understand how climate and the environment affect their distribution and ability to move across the landscape, and what are their genetic responses to environmental change.The proposed project builds on the research programme developed throughout my independent research career and will benefit from available expertise and state-of-the-art facilities at Bristol and the wide diversity of expertise of project partners. I will first use ecological and mathematical modelling approaches to study how climate change and habitat loss will interact to affect the future distribution of all European forest bats. Focusing on two bat species with different distributions and ecology (Barbastella barbastellus and Myotis escalerai) I will survey populations from across their climatic gradients. To understand what drives evolutionary responses to global change I will use next generation sequencing to study the genes involved in adaptations of populations to current environmental conditions. I will develop new modelling tools to relate these local genetic adaptations to the response of populations to future climate change in face of habitat loss and to predict the consequences of global change. This will allow me to assess the likelihood of long-term population survival and to identify adequate conservation measures. An important aspect of this project is its impact on how we manage our environment, and therefore it includes the development of innovative ways to translate scientific findings and will provide resources for use by policy makers, planners and conservation managers.