Mathematical Modelling Tools for Conservation and Disease Management

除了在人类和农业人口中具有重要意义外，人们越来越认识到传染病对自然系统具有重要影响。特别是，现在清楚的是，传染病在保护方面可能很重要，可能会影响外来生物入侵自然群落的能力。生态学理论在表明疾病在自然系统中的普遍重要性方面一直很重要，但很少被用于指导保护计划。项目调查人员在将关于疾病介导的生态入侵的既定研究转化为可用于指导保护管理决策和政策的数学工具方面有着良好的记录。这个项目将回答保护机构对苏格兰红色-灰色-松鼠痘系统概述的当前紧迫问题。项目合作伙伴(苏格兰自然遗产、苏格兰野生动物信托基金)明确了项目的目标，他们需要知道松鼠痘对剩余红松鼠种群的潜在影响，控制灰松鼠是否可以防止松鼠痘传播，以及需要控制的关键位置和努力。这些信息对于我们的保护伙伴制定当前和未来的管理计划至关重要，这些计划以最大限度地保护红松鼠的方式分配有限的资源。预测大规模、复杂地貌上的时间和空间疾病动态的建模框架是支持这些保护努力的最佳工具。因此，这项NERC创新建议提供了一个独特的机会，可以将现有的研究转化为有效的保护战略，为最终用户提供直接的有形利益。

As well as being important in human and agricultural populations, it is increasingly recognised that infectious disease has important impacts in natural systems. In particular it is now clear that infectious disease can be important in conservation and may affect the ability of foreign organisms to invade natural communities. Ecological theory has been important in showing the general importance of disease in natural systems, but has only been rarely used to direct conservation programs. The project investigators have a track record in translating established research on disease-mediated ecological invasion into mathematical tools that can be used to direct conservation management decisions and policy. This project will answer current, pressing questions outlined by conservation agencies on the red-grey-squirrelpox system in Scotland. The objectives in the project have been specified by the project partners (Scottish Natural Heritage, Scottish Wildlife Trust) who need to know the potential impact of squirrelpox on remaining red squirrel populations, whether grey squirrel control can prevent squirrelpox spread and the critical locations and effort at which control is required. This information is essential to allow our conservation partners to formulate current and future management plans that allocates limited resources in a manner that maximises red squirrel protection. The modelling framework, which predicts temporal and spatial disease dynamics on large-scale, complex landscapes, is the best tool available to underpin these conservation efforts. Therefore, this NERC Innovations proposal provides a unique opportunity to translate established research into effective conservation strategies that provide direct tangible benefits to end-users.