Probability and Uncertainty in Risk Estimation and Communication

我们的总体目标是通过以下方式在中国建设地震抗灾能力：（a）改进地震危害和地震及其后果风险的评估;（B）改进概率信息的交流和使用，以制定更合理和基于风险的减少灾害风险战略。我们将在最近开发的地震历史目录的基础上进行扩展，首次将其扩展到包括后续事件（滑坡、泥石流/泥石流、洪水暴发），将这一新的数据库与现代仪器数据统一起来，使用最先进的统计技术量化相关的不确定性，并纳入基于社会科学的对风险沟通和治理的理解，以改进政策制定和执行。工作方案将在四川省（包括2008年汶川地震）和云南省开展。四川省和云南省都是构造活跃的山区，因此不仅容易受到地震的影响，而且容易受到地震引发的山体滑坡和洪水的危害，四川是中国最富裕的省份之一，而云南是最贫穷的省份之一。这些财富上的差异，再加上2008年四川汶川大地震与1996年云南丽江大地震相比，前者的破坏性相对较弱，这就形成了一个自然实验，以测试改进的风险概率评估的有效性，以及地震对人员和财产的相关不确定性，以及随之而来的事件危害，支持更多基于风险的减灾方法。该项目将通过改善地震危害和随之而来的事件风险评估以及沟通、理解，以及决策者和当地公众将由此产生的概率预测用于减少灾害风险。它涉及中国历次国家减少灾害风险战略中确定的若干具体能力差距。除了与国家和地方各级决策者接触，以提高应急规划和建筑法规监管的有效性外，我们还将直接与当地公众接触，以提高公众对风险的认识和应对风险的能力。该项目还将履行英国官方发展援助（ODA）的承诺，促进“发展中国家的经济发展和福利”利用英国的科学基础，解决一个对中国最贫困人口有不同影响的关键脆弱性。

Our overall aim is to build earthquake resilience in China by improving (a) the assessment of seismic hazard and risk from earthquakes and consequent events and (b) the communication and use of probabilistic information in the development of more proportionate and risk-based strategies for disaster risk reduction. We will build on and extend a recently-developed historical catalogue for earthquakes, extend it for the first time to include consequent events (landslides, debris/mud-flows, outburst floods), unify this new database with modern instrumental data, use state-of the art statistical techniques to quantify the associated uncertainties, and incorporate social science-based understanding of risk communication and governance to improve policy development and implementation. The work programme will be carried out in Si-chuan (including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake) and Yun-nan provinces. While they are both tectonically active, and mountainous, and thus vulnerable not only to earthquakes but also to consequent hazards of earthquake-triggered landslides and flooding, Si-chuan is one of the wealthiest provinces in China, while Yun-nan is one of poorest. These differences in wealth, combined with the recency of the devastating 2008 Wenchuan in Si-chuan compared to the more attenuated memory of the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yun-nan, make for a natural experiment in which to test the efficacy of improved probabilistic assessment of risk and associated uncertainty to people and property by earthquakes, and consequent event hazards, in supporting more risk-based approaches to disaster reduction.This project will promote long-term sustainable growth in earthquake prone regions of China by improving both the assessment of earthquake hazard and consequent event risk and the communication, understanding, and use of the resulting probabilistic forecasts for disaster risk reduction by policymakers and local publics. It addresses several specific capacity gaps identified in successive Chinese national disaster risk reduction strategies. As well as engaging with policymakers at both the national and local levels to improve the effectiveness of emergency planning and building code regulation, we will also engage directly with local publics to enhance public understanding of risk and capacity to deal with it. In so doing, the project will also fulfil the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment to promoting "the economic development and welfare of developing countries" by drawing on UK's science base to address a key vulnerability differentially affecting the very poorest in China.