Coping with El Nino in Tanzania: Differentiated local impacts and household-level responses

厄尔尼诺现象是一种与东太平洋海洋表面变暖有关的气候现象，导致热带许多地区和更远地区出现不寻常的天气模式。在坦桑尼亚，厄尔尼诺现象通常会导致该国北部地区出现更大的降雨和洪水，而南部地区的降雨量比正常情况下要少。这些环境变化可能对当地人民的生计造成严重后果，导致农作物歉收和影响人畜的疾病暴发，并造成重大困难和生命损失。当社会未能对环境变化作出充分反应时，就会发生类似这样的“自然”灾难，但人类行为在塑造环境变化结果中所起的作用是复杂的，人们对此知之甚少。厄尔尼诺现象的影响在世界贫困的农村地区最为严重，在那里，家庭决定如何应对是至关重要的，如果他们要将遭受的伤害降至最低的话。这些决定通常涉及改变他们的生计活动、出售财产或增加他们对自然资源的使用，通常被称为应对战略。一个家庭可以使用的一套可能的应对策略取决于他们可以利用的资源，而这些资源又可能受到他们所处的环境和相关机构的存在的影响。这三个因素--家庭水平差异以及制度和环境背景--是环境冲击对当地规模影响的重要决定因素。在这个项目中，我们研究了野生动物管理区--一种基于社区的自然资源管理机构的特定形式--如何影响当地社区应对厄尔尼诺现象的能力。理论上，如果在关键时刻改善自然资源的状况或可获得性，或减少冲突，野生动物管理区可以减轻厄尔尼诺现象的影响。然而，如果他们对自然资源的使用施加限制，减少一个家庭可以求助的应对策略集，他们也可能产生负面影响。我们将使用从坦桑尼亚各地1200多个家庭收集的调查数据，比较厄尔尼诺现象在北部和南部不同环境以及有和没有WMA的地区的影响。此外，我们将研究社区内不同类型的个人或家庭(例如男性和女性、较富裕和较贫穷的家庭、或多或少依赖自然资源的家庭)是否会产生不同的影响。我们的结果将为一些家庭和社区受到环境变化更严重影响的原因提供有价值的新见解，并帮助社区在未来变得更具弹性。

El Niño is a climatic phenomenon linked to warming of the ocean surface in the eastern Pacific that causes unusual weather patterns across many parts of the tropics and further afield. In Tanzania, El Niño events typically lead to heavier rain and flooding in northern parts of the country while southern parts experience less rainfall than normal. These environmental changes can have severe consequences for the livelihoods of local people, leading to crop failure and outbreaks of disease affecting humans and livestock and causing significant hardship and loss of life. "Natural" disasters such as these arise when society fails to respond adequately to changes in the environment, but the role human behaviour plays in shaping the outcomes of environmental change is complex and poorly understood. The impacts of El Niño are most serious in poor rural parts of the world, where households decisions about how to respond are vital if they are to minimise the harm they suffer. These decisions commonly involve changes to their livelihood activities, selling property or increasing their use of natural resources and are often referred to as coping strategies. The set of possible coping strategies a household can use depends upon the resources they can call upon, and these can in turn be affected by their environment and the existence of relevant institutions. Together these three factors - household level differences and institutional and environmental context - are important determinants of local scale impacts of environmental shocks.In this project, we examine how Wildlife Management Areas - a specific form of community-based natural resource management institution - affect the ability of local communities to respond to El Niño. In theory WMAs could lessen El Niño's impacts if they improve the condition or availability of natural resources at key times, or lessen conflict. However, they could also have a negative effect if they impose restrictions on natural resource use that reduce the set of coping strategies a household can call on.We will investigate this interaction using survey data collected from more than 1,200 households across Tanzania, comparing El Niño's impacts in the differing environments of the north and the south and in areas with and without WMAs. In addition, we will examine whether impacts vary between different types of individuals or households within a community (e.g. men and women, richer and poorer households, households relying more or less on natural resources). Our results will provide valuable new insights into the reasons why some households and communities are more seriously affected by environmental change and help communities to become more resilient in the future.