Development of a PCN population advisory tool that provides robust advice and management

在英国，土豆是每年大约101.4亿顿家庭餐的一部分，平均每个人每周吃三/四顿饭（AHDB，2015）。国内种植的零售土豆供应占市场的87%。AHDB Potatoes估计，英国马铃薯生产以及后续加工和附加值的年价值为45亿至55亿英镑。马铃薯胞囊线虫（PCN）Globodera rostochiensis和G. pallida是对马铃薯种植者造成重大经济损失的重要土壤害虫。G. pallida是英国最流行的物种，其控制是最成问题的。由于缺乏商业上受欢迎的抗性马铃薯品种，以及对使用化学防治措施的担忧，导致G。对于英国和许多其他国家的农民来说，pallida是一个棘手的问题。这两种多氯化萘都是寄生虫，必须在马铃薯根部完成大部分生命周期。多氯联苯与其寄主植物之间存在着复杂的相互作用。幼线虫是一种微小的蠕虫，在发现附近生长的宿主植物后，从土壤中的卵孵化，然后定位并随后侵入宿主的根部。线虫在根内迁移，并选择一个单一的根细胞，它转化为一个大的专门喂养细胞。线虫在几周内从专门的摄食细胞中吸收营养。每株植物可以窝藏数百条线虫，并且它们的进食对马铃薯作物的生长和产量具有显著的有害影响。农业和园艺发展委员会（AHDB）马铃薯是一个法定的征税委员会，由马铃薯产业资助。AHDB的职责是为其纳税人提供独立的、基于证据的信息和工具，以实现增长、更具竞争力和可持续性。作为履行这一职责的一部分，AHDB土豆公司向该部门提供了有关多氯化萘的信息。他们提供了一个基于网络的教育工具和决策验证器，可以让种植者可视化与PCN相关的不同“如果”场景，这些场景与他们的企业和农业实践相关。咨询工具显示了种植者的行动对多氯化萘侵扰程度的影响以及对预测产量的影响。这表明，最好在水平较低时尽早处理虫害，因为此时使用杀线虫剂效果最好。对产量的影响基于数学预测。AHDB认识到，PCN咨询工具需要改进和更新，因为虽然在某些情况下提供了有价值的建议，但该模型可以更准确地反映结果。我们建议整理数据从已知的来源，并收集更多的数据，在必要时，在有关的具体方面，影响多氯化萘增殖，如温度，马铃薯品种的耐受性的害虫和新兴的控制策略，生物熏蒸和陷阱种植。将对这些数据进行分析，并将其用于在改进的PCN咨询工具中提供数学预测。

Potatoes are consumed as part of approximately 10.14 billion meals made at home each year in the UK, which is an average of three/four meals a week for each member of the population (AHDB, 2015). The home-grown supply of retail potatoes accounts for 87% of the market. AHDB Potatoes estimates the UK potato production together with subsequent processing and added value has an annual value of £4.5 - 5.5 billion. The potato cyst nematodes (PCN) Globodera rostochiensis and G. pallida are important soil pests that cause major economic losses to potato growers. G. pallida is the most prevalent species in the UK and its control is the most problematic. A lack of commercially favoured resistant potato varieties and concerns surrounding the use of chemical control measures have resulted in G. pallida being an intractable problem to farmers both in the UK and in many other countries. Both PCN species live as parasites and must complete the majority of their life-cycle in potato roots. PCN has a complex interaction with its plant host. Juvenile nematodes are microscopic worms that hatch from eggs in the soil upon detecting a host plant growing nearby, then locate and subsequently invade the roots of the host. The nematode migrates inside the root and selects a single root cell that it transforms into a large specialised feeding cell. The nematodes withdraw nutrient from the specialised feeding cell over several weeks. Each plant can harbour many hundreds of nematodes and their feeding has a dramatic, detrimental impact on the growth and yield of the potato crop. The control of PCN is named as a top industry research priority.The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) Potatoes is a statutory levy board, funded by the potato industry. AHDB's remit is to equip its levy payers with independent, evidence-based information and tools to grow, become more competitive and sustainable. As part of meeting this remit AHDB Potatoes provides the sector with information regarding PCN. They offer a web based educational tool and decision justifier that can allow a grower to visualise different 'what if' scenarios related to PCN that are relevant to their enterprise and agricultural practices. The advisory tool shows the implications of a grower's actions on the level of PCN infestation and the effect on the predicted yield. This demonstrates that treatment of an infestation is best tackled early when the levels are low, as this is when the use of nematicides has the greatest effect. The effect on yield is based on mathematical predictions. AHDB appreciate that the PCN advisory tool requires improvement and updating because while offering valuable advice in certain scenarios the model could reflect outcomes more accurately. We propose to collate data from known sources and collect more data where necessary in relation to specific aspects that affect PCN multiplication such as temperature, tolerance of the potato variety to the pest and the emerging control strategies of biofumigation and trap-cropping. The data will be analysed and used to provide mathematical predictions in an improved PCN advisory tool.