Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW)

ACREW的总体目标是发展英国建立发展中国家对大气危害的复原力的能力。拟议的工作方案将侧重于两种危害：空气污染和恶劣天气——这两种危害对穷人的影响都不成比例。在许多发展中经济体，空气污染是一个严重的问题，它使预期寿命减少了10年，GDP每年减少5%。薄弱的基础设施和对雨养农业的依赖使发展中国家的人口极易受到天气变化的影响。最近的科技发展为发展中国家建立抵御与空气质量和气候/天气有关的危害的能力提供了机会。就空气质量而言，新的传感器技术有望带来一场革命，使我们能够以低成本测量各种尺度的污染。此外，降低计算成本和随时可用的开源软件为发展中国家的科学家提供了运行他们自己的空气质量模拟的机会。就气候和天气而言，新获得的模式、观测数据集和分析工具有可能在天数到季节的时间尺度上改进与天气有关的灾害的早期预警。然而，如果要在操作环境中安全使用这些系统，用户必须了解对最先进的模型和技术有多大的信心。这依赖于对基础机制的合理的科学理解，以及研究人员和最终用户之间的密切接触。该中心拟议的所有工作都有助于促进发展中国家的经济发展和改善人类福利和健康。选择这些具体活动是为了利用国家科学院的新科学发展和现有专业知识。空气质量工作包（WPs）侧重于开发一种新的、负担得起的空气质量监测传感器；液体燃料成分及其对空气污染的影响；以及通过模拟主要城市的空气质量来制定基于证据的排放政策。气候/天气预报系统侧重于农业干旱预警；与热带气旋有关的风险；强降雨预报；以及利用预测信息管理复杂系统，如可再生能源供需。每个工作计划都包括科学和应用的要素，尽管平衡因活动而异。空气质量监测中心的空气质量和气候/天气组成部分都包括新技术的操作试验，这些试验将与地面组织合作进行。加强和建立伙伴关系是该项目的主要目标，对项目的成功至关重要。为此，ACREW以一系列研讨会和交流访问为中心。这些参与活动将巩固合作，促进新技术和研究应用的共同开发。WMO、WHO、ECMWF和Met Office等国际组织参加年度研讨会将加强对ACREW科学成果的吸收，扩大直接项目伙伴关系和试点之外的影响，并确保长期发展成果。

The overarching aim of ACREW is to develop the UK's capacity for building the resilience of developing countries to atmospheric hazards. The proposed programme of work will focus on two hazards: air pollution and adverse weather - both of which disproportionately impact poor people. Air pollution is a critical problem in many developing economies, reducing life expectancy by up to a decade, and GDP by up to 5% per year. Weak infrastructure and dependence on rain fed agriculture render the populations of developing countries critically vulnerable to variation in the weather. Recent technological and scientific developments offer opportunities to build the resilience of developing countries to hazards related both to air quality and to climate/weather. In the case of air quality, new sensor technology promises a revolution in our ability to measure pollution on all scales, at low cost. Reduced computing costs and readily available open-source software, furthermore, offer opportunities for scientists in developing countries to run their own air quality simulations. In the case of climate and weather, newly available models, observational datasets and analysis tools have the potential to improve early warning of weather-related hazard on time-scales of days to seasons. Users must, however, understand how much confidence can be placed in state-of-the-art models and technologies, if such systems are to be exploited safely in operational settings. This relies on sound scientific understanding of underpinning mechanisms, as well as on close engagement between researchers and end users. All of the proposed work in ACREW contributes to the promotion of economic development and improved human welfare and health in developing countries. The specific activities have been chosen to exploit new scientific developments and existing expertise within NCAS. The air quality work packages (WPs) focus on the development of a new, affordable sensor for monitoring of air quality; liquid fuel composition and its effect on air pollution; and the formulation of evidence-based emissions policies through simulation of air quality in major cities. The climate/weather WPs focus on early warning of agricultural drought; the risks associated with tropical cyclones; prediction of intense rainfall; and the utility of forecast information for managing complex systems, such as renewable energy supply and demand. Each WP includes elements of science and application, although the balance varies depending on the activity. Both the air quality and climate/weather components of ACREW include operational pilots of new technology, which will be carried out in partnership with on-the-ground organizations.Strengthening and building of partnerships are key objectives for ACREW, and crucial for the project's success. To this end, ACREW is centered round a series of workshops and exchange visits. These engagement activities will cement collaborations and facilitate co-development of new technologies and research applications. The participation of international organizations, such as the WMO, WHO, ECMWF and the Met Office in annual workshops will enhance the uptake ACREW scientific findings - widening impact beyond immediate project partnerships and pilots, and securing long-term development outcomes.