Towards and Indian observatory of tropical forest response to climate change

热带地区正在变暖，极端高温事件（通常伴随着干旱）的频率在大多数热带森林生物群系中正在增加。目前还不清楚日益增加的热量会对热带森林产生什么影响。这个关键问题是当前IOF提案的重点，该提案基于亚马逊地区NERC研究的三个综合链，我们领导并建议在印度进行试点。该方法首先包括在亚马逊潮湿森林南部边界的森林地点进行有针对性的实时观测计划，作为NERC BIO-RED联盟的一部分，由Gloor和Phillips共同领导。对森林状况的实时观测在很大程度上依赖于俯瞰树冠的摄像机，这些摄像机测量树冠温度、生产力表现和压力以及物候。为了表征气候强迫，我们连续测量了气候和土壤湿度。为了了解观察到的树木对极端高温的反应模式，我们分别测量了该地点主要树种与树木水力和生产力相关的特征。其次，作为另一项正在进行的NERC拨款（由DG领导的震颤）的一部分，我们正在测量分布在亚马逊地区10个地点的主要树木的水力特性。对这些大范围的特征的了解使我们能够推广用原位监测方法测量的机械结果。最后，在正在进行和过去的赠款中，项目执行处在亚马逊、非洲和婆罗洲建立了一个热带森林样地监测网络（目前约有1000个1公顷样地），能够跟踪森林生物量、生产力和组成的长期变化。我们在此提议与印度顶尖科学家合作，在这一关键地区应用这些方法。近年来，印度热带大部分地区的热浪大幅增加，峰值温度高达50摄氏度。模型预测表明，高达45%的印度森林可能面临转变为非森林植被状态的风险，但只有非常有限的数据来评估这些预测。印度既缺乏像我们在亚马逊站点那样的全面观测系统，也没有相对较少的永久性地块，而那些已经存在的地块也大多没有纳入国际森林监测网络。为了应对这些挑战，我们与印度森林生态学、生态生理学和气候学领域的主要专家建立了新的联系。在它们之间，我们新的印度合作者与国家和国际森林保护努力有着密切的联系，并领导着大多数可用的森林地块。该提案的科学重点是西高止山脉广泛的，生物多样性和潜在的气候敏感的常绿森林，这是团队在地理上的兴趣一致。我们建议在西高止山脉现有地块附近，像在亚马逊河流域一样，共同建立一个可以俯瞰树冠的连续森林高温和干旱响应监测点。我们共同规划了一个优势种的立地水平性状运动和地冠观测监测的局部整合。我们进一步建议协调样地普查协议，并将印度样地数据纳入泛热带森林普查数据库，以支持更大规模的地理分析和综合。国际支援部队还将以支持相互交流技能为目标，重点分为三个步骤。第一个在西高止山脉，是一个专门为学生和年轻科学家提供实地技能和规程教育的讲习班。其次，我们计划印度同事多次访问利兹，以支持联合分析和项目后规划。最后一次研讨会将在这位印度科学家的一个家乡机构举行，它将包括更广泛的参与，以讨论这些结果的影响，并采取实际步骤，确保这些活动成为长期努力。

The tropics are warming and the frequency of extreme heat events, often accompanied by drought, is increasing across most of the tropical forest biome. It is currently unclear what the effects of increasing heat on tropical forests will be. This key question is the focus of the current IOF proposal, based on three integrated strands of NERC research in Amazonia, which we lead and propose to pilot in India. The approach consists firstly of a targeted real-time observation program at a forest site at the Southern border of the Amazon humid forests, as part of the NERC BIO-RED consortium, co-led by Gloor and Phillips. Real-time observations of forest performance rely heavily on cameras overlooking the canopies, which measure canopy temperatures, measures of productivity performance and stress, and phenology. To characterize the climate forcing, we measure continuously climate and soil humidity. In order to understand observed patterns of tree performance responses to heat extremes, we measure separately traits of the site's dominant tree species related to tree hydraulics, as well as productivity. Secondly, as part of another ongoing NERC grant (TREMOR, led by DG) we are measuring tree hydraulic properties of dominant trees at 10 sites distributed across the Amazon. Knowledge of these characteristics across wide areas permits us to generalize mechanistic results measured with the in-situ monitoring approach. Finally, in both ongoing and past grants OP has developed a tropical forest plot-monitoring network in Amazonia, Africa, and Borneo (~1000 1-ha plots now), capable of tracking longer-term shifts in forest biomass, productivity, and composition. We propose here to work with leading Indian scientists to apply these approaches in this critical region. In large parts of tropical India heat waves have increased considerably in recent years with peak temperatures reaching up to 50C. Model projections suggest that up to 45% of Indian forests may be at risk of shifting to non-forest vegetation states, yet there are only very limited data to evaluate these projections. India lacks both a comprehensive observational system as at our Amazon site, and has relatively few permanent plots, and those that do exist are mostly not integrated into international forest monitoring networks. To address these challenges we have formed new connections with key experts in India covering the areas of forest ecology, eco-physiology, and climatology. Between them our new Indian collaborators are strongly linked to national and international forest conservation efforts, and lead most available forest plots. The scientific focus of this proposal, the extensive, biodiverse and potentially climate-sensitive evergreen forests in Western Ghats, is where the team's interests coincide geographically. We propose to jointly install a canopy-overlooking continuous forest heat and drought-response monitoring site, as in S Amazonia, close to existing plots in the Western Ghats. Together we plan a site-level traits campaign of dominant species and local integration of plot- and canopy-observation monitoring. We further propose to harmonize protocols of plot censuses and to include Indian plot data in the pan-tropical forest census database to support larger scale geographical analyses and syntheses. I-FOR will also aim to support mutual exchange of skills, focused in three steps. The first, in the Western Ghats, is a workshop dedicated to student and young scientist education in field skills and protocols. Secondly, we plan several visits of Indian colleagues to Leeds to support joint analyses and post-project planning. The final workshop, to be hold at one of the Indian scientist's home institution, will include wider participation to discuss implications of the results and to take practical steps toward ensuring these activities become long-term efforts.