Emergence of Climate Hazards

气候灾害是天气和气候“极端事件”，可能导致生命损失、伤害或其他健康影响，以及财产、基础设施、生计、服务提供和环境资源的破坏和损失。例如：2003年西欧的夏季热浪，被认为是500年来前所未有的，造成了20，000多人过早死亡，主要是社会中的弱势群体，如老年人-南亚季风的季风失败和随后的农业损失-农业占GDP的18%，但雇用了60%的人。亚洲（约10亿人）-2015/16年极端厄尔尼诺事件导致全球洪水，干旱和野火，并推动有记录以来二氧化碳年增长最快-2013/2014年冬季连续风暴到达英格兰南部，造成严重洪水和4.51亿英镑的保险损失这些事件是，最有可能的，以我们目前还不了解的方式受到全球气候变化的影响。未来的气候变化可能会进一步加剧其影响，本项目将评估过去和现在气候变化对气候灾害的影响，并预测未来的变化。由于这一时间尺度与政府、企业和个人制定的适应战略相关，因此将重点放在未来30年。EMERGENCE将使用来自最先进的气候模型的信息，包括来自前所未有的精细细节模型的信息。它将利用最先进的观测结果，利用已经观测到的变化来限制气候模型的预测，并利用新的和改进的分析技术（包括事件归因、机器学习和特征跟踪），这些技术在以前对旧模型的气候危害进行评估时没有得到或没有得到广泛应用。所涉及的危险是：极端热应力事件、热带洪水和干旱以及风暴及其相关的极端风和降雨。信息将被纳入全球指标，这些指标将构成气候灾害风险的简要概述，而这反过来又将成为决策者的一个重要资源，将及时编制该项目对气候灾害出现情况的评估，以供政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）下一次评估之用，这既与自然气候科学有关，也与影响有关。该团队包括来自英国气象局的一些领先的气候科学项目合作伙伴，在IPCC中有着良好的记录，因此非常适合提供这种投入，并进一步加强英国气候科学在国际竞技场的形象。

Climate hazards are weather and climate 'extreme events' that can cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Examples include:- The summer heat wave of 2003 in Western Europe, thought to be unprecedented in 500 years, which caused more that 20,000 early deaths, mainly among vulnerable groups in society such as the elderly- South Asian Monsoon monsoon failures and subsequent agricultural losses - agriculture accounts for 18% of GDP, but employs 60% of people in S. Asia (~1 billion people)- The extreme El Niño event of 2015/16 that caused floods, droughts and wildfires globally and drove the fastest annual increase in CO2 on record- A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014, causing severe floods and £451 million of insured lossesSuch events are, most likely, influenced by global climate change in ways that we do not currently understand. Future climate change may further exacerbate their impacts.This project will assess the impact of climate change on climate hazards in the past and present and project forward their changes into the future. There is a focus on the next 30 years because of the relevance of this time scale for adaptation strategies produced by governments, businesses and individuals.EMERGENCE will use information from state-of-the-art climate models, including from models with unprecedented fine detail. It will use cutting edge observations in order to constrain climate model predictions using changes already observed, drawing on new and improved analysis techniques (including event attribution, machine learning and feature tracking) that were not available or not widely applied during previous assessments of climate hazards from older models. The hazards addressed are: extreme heat stress events, tropical deluges and droughts, and storms with their associated extreme winds and rainfall. Information will be integrated into global indicators that will form a snapshot summary of climate hazard risks that, in turn, will be an essential resource for policy makers.The project's assessments of the emergence of climate hazards will be produced in a timely fashion to feed into the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), being relevant to both physical climate science and impacts. The team assembled, including a number of leading climate science project partners from the Met Office, has a strong track record in IPCC and is thus ideally placed to provide this input and to further strengthen the profile of UK climate science in the international arena.