Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector

在英格兰和威尔士的凉爽气候条件下，酿酒葡萄的种植正在迅速扩大，特别是起泡葡萄酒赢得了国际奖项和赞誉。与全球变暖相关的生长季节变暖趋势正在支持葡萄园数量的增长和更多消费者喜爱的葡萄品种的种植，同时也吸引了大量的国际投资兴趣。然而，尽管2018年的葡萄生长季节创造了创纪录的收成，但在非常适合葡萄生长的条件下，气候的年复一年的波动仍然经常威胁到该行业的可持续性。例如，平均产量仍然不到法国香槟地区的三分之一，在某些年份，如2012年，一些英国葡萄园根本没有收获葡萄。拟议中的合作由伦敦经济学院和东安格利亚大学（University of East Anglia）合作。每个研究所的研究人员都有高度相关的经验，例如，该团队包括一名葡萄酒行业专家，一名气候科学家和一名具有企业适应经验的社会科学家。这项研究的第一个目的是利用英国新的未来气候变化预测，评估酿酒葡萄的关键生长季节特征在未来几十年可能发生的变化。我们建议发展我们的研究，重点关注葡萄酒行业到目前为止的发展，以显示到2050年的未来气候趋势如何影响该行业，从而为提高该行业对气候变化的适应能力提供指导。第二，直接与国家葡萄种植者和酿酒师组织（英国葡萄酒）合作，我们将研究企业如何做出适应未来气候变化的决策，从而帮助确保这个新兴行业有一个光明的未来。到目前为止，葡萄酒生产商或投资者可用于决策的气候变化信息有限。研究的目标如下：1）制作非常详细的空气霜冻风险数据集（仍然是葡萄生长的关键危害），以更准确地量化当地霜冻风险，从而确定种植葡萄的地点适合性2）根据英国新获得的气候模型预测，制定21世纪30年代和21世纪50年代未来气候变化下的气候风险指标。3）评估葡萄酒行业适应气候变化的决策过程，并研究气候变化风险和机遇的感知在决策中的作用。葡萄酒行业可以作为英国气候适应的“早期采用者”的一个例子，通过这个例子，有机会研究企业在气候适应方面的过程。做出风险管理的决策。由于气候变化的总体方向对英国葡萄酒生产是积极的，因此该提案不同寻常地关注气候变化的机遇和风险。我们的研究将采用多种方法。气候科学用于发展新的气候预测和气候风险因素。以及社会科学或定性方法（访谈和调查），以了解适应的复原力和行为层面。该研究旨在为英国适应气候变化（气候适应力）提供实际支持，特别是对葡萄酒行业，但不限于此。基于我们与葡萄酒行业利益相关者的长期关系，我们将通过咨询为国家气候变化评估和政策进程提供建议。我们将与英国葡萄酒公司合作，确保共同设计和共享的方法。我们将与一个沟通和政策团队合作，确定受众和我们结果中的主要信息，并为决策者准备一份政策简报和一个简短的视频（用于YouTube），以捕捉我们的主要建议。

The cultivation of wine grapes under cool-climate conditions in England and Wales is rapidly expanding and resulting sparkling wines in particular are winning international awards and acclaim. Warming growing season trends associated with global warming are supporting growth in vineyard numbers and the planting of more consumer popular grape varieties, while also attracting significant international investment interest. However, while the 2018 growing season has produced a record harvest, in very grape-friendly growing conditions, year to year fluctuations in climate still regularly threaten the sustainability of the sector. Yields are still on average less than one third of those found in the Champagne region of France, for example, and in certain years such as 2012, some English vineyards harvested no grapes at all.The proposed collaboration is between the London School of Economics and the University of East Anglia. Researchers at each institute have highly relevant experience, for example, the team includes a wine sector specialist, a climate scientist and a social scientist with experience of adaptation in businesses.The first aim of this research is to capitalise on the launch of new future climate change projections for the UK to assess how critical growing season characteristics for wine grapes may change over the coming decades. We propose to develop our research which has focused upon the development of the wine sector up to now, to show how future climate trends out to 2050 may influence the sector, and thereby offer guidance to enhance the sector's resilience to climate change. Second, working directly with the national organisation for grape growers and winemakers (Wines of Great Britain), we will examine how businesses make decisions about adapting to future climate change, thereby helping to ensure that this fledgling industry has a bright future. As yet, there is limited information about climate change that wine producers or investors can use for decision making. The research has the following objectives:1) To produce a very detailed dataset of air frost risk (still a critical hazard for grape growth) to more accurately quantify local frost risk and hence site suitability for growing grapes (viticulture) in the current climate.2) To develop indicators of climatic risk under future climate change for the 2030s and 2050s based on newly available climate model projections for the UK.3) To assess decision-making processes with respect to adaptation in the wine sector and examine the role of perceptions of climate change risk and opportunities in decision-making.The wine sector can be used as an example of an 'early adoptor' of climate adaptation in the UK through which there is an opportunity to study the process by which businesses are making decisions about risk management. Since the overall direction of change in climate has been positive for UK wine production this proposal focuses, unusually, on both the opportunities and risks of climate change.Our research will use a multi-methods approach. Climate science for the development of new climate projections and climatic risk factors. And social science or qualitative methods (interviews and survey) to understand the resilience and behavioural dimensions of adaptation. The research is designed to generate practical support for adaptation to climate change in the UK (climate resilience) particularly for, but not restricted to, the wine sector. Informed by our longstanding relationship with stakeholders in the wine sector we will advise national climate change assessments and policy processes through consultation. We will work alongside Wines of Great Britain to ensure a co-designed and shared approach. We will work with a Communications and Policy team to identify audiences and the main messages from our results and prepare a Policy Brief for decision-makers and a short video (for YouTube) that captures our key recommendations.