Southern Africa's hydro-economy and water security (SAHEWS)

南部非洲的水利经济和水安全 (SAHEWS)

• 批准号: NE/L008785/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 37.79万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL008785%2F1
• 关键词: Southern; Africa; hydro; economy; water

Water security in southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: rapid population growth, chronic and drought-induced food shortages, growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand, transboundary and regional allocation issues, and a strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future. These challenges are exacerbated by political, institutional and economic factors, including limited management and regulatory capacity, and highly inequitable access to reliable potable water. This research seeks to improve understanding of the drivers of short to medium term hydro-meteorological variability, its socioeconomic consequences and develop approaches for improved water resources management in the region.The proposed collaboration addresses important knowledge gaps in the effective management of water security. Hydro-meteorological variability is large and spatially extensive such that prolonged floods and droughts cause macroscale socioeconomic impacts yet these are poorly understood. Seasonal forecasts show greater skill for southern Africa relative to many other regions but reliability and skill remain important constraints. This project will assess and refine seasonal forecasts for water management, model the socioeconomic consequences of hydro-meteorological variability and develop knowledge transfer techniques, such as Info-Gap Decision Theory for supporting water management under conditions of high uncertainty. A co-design process will engage with two case studies to develop decision-relevant indicators, and high level dissemination and up-scaling will occur through regional workshops with strategic decision-makers.

南部非洲的水安全概括了全球对水的压力：人口快速增长、长期干旱引起的粮食短缺、日益严重的水资源短缺和能源安全问题与不断增长的需求、跨界和区域分配问题以及未来可能变得更加干燥和更加多变的气候的剧烈变化。政治、体制和经济因素加剧了这些挑战，包括管理和监管能力有限，以及获得可靠饮用水的机会极不公平。这项研究旨在提高对中短期水文气象变化的驱动因素及其社会经济后果的了解，并制定改善该地区水资源管理的方法。拟议的合作解决了有效管理水安全方面的重要知识差距。水文气象变化很大且空间广泛，因此长期的洪水和干旱会造成宏观社会经济影响，但人们对此知之甚少。季节性预报显示，与许多其他地区相比，南部非洲的预报技能更高，但可靠性和技能仍然是重要的限制因素。该项目将评估和完善水管理的季节性预测，对水文气象变化的社会经济后果进行建模，并开发知识转移技术，例如用于支持高度不确定性条件下的水管理的信息差距决策理论。共同设计过程将涉及两个案例研究，以制定与决策相关的指标，并将通过与战略决策者举行的区域研讨会进行高水平的传播和推广。

项目成果

Environmental impacts of food trade via resource use and greenhouse gas emissions

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035012
• 发表时间: 2016-03-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Dalin, Carole;Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio
• 通讯作者: Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

Agricultural groundwater management strategies and seasonal climate forecasting: perceptions from Mogwadi (Dendron), Limpopo, South Africa

• DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2018.042
• 发表时间: 2019-03-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Fallon, A. L.;Villholth, K. G.;Ebrahim, G. Y.
• 通讯作者: Ebrahim, G. Y.

Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: water efficiency and climate signals

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/015005
• 发表时间: 2016-01-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Dalin, Carole;Conway, Declan
• 通讯作者: Conway, Declan

Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2995
• 发表时间: 2016-08-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Deryng, Delphine;Elliott, Joshua;Rosenzweig, Cynthia
• 通讯作者: Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Climate risks to hydropower supply in eastern and southern Africa

东部和南部非洲水力发电面临的气候风险

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Conway D