The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

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The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias. The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning. We identify three main objectives;1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption. All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 20162) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 20163) First survey and interviews. July-August 20164) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 20165) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 20176) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study. The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.