The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

厄尔尼诺相关洪水和干旱对博茨瓦纳、肯尼亚和赞比亚中小企业的经济影响

• 批准号: NE/P004784/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 33.98万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP004784%2F1
• 关键词: economic; impact; El; Ni; related

The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias. The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning. We identify three main objectives;1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption. All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 20162) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 20163) First survey and interviews. July-August 20164) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 20165) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 20176) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study. The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.

拟议的研究将评估与2015-16年厄尔尼诺（EN）和随后的雨季相关的极端干旱（博茨瓦纳和赞比亚）和洪水（肯尼亚）的影响和应对措施。其目的是研究中小企业（SME）的经济后果，因为它们受到以下影响：博茨瓦纳首都哈博罗内因干旱而供水中断;肯尼亚的极端洪水;赞比亚的电力供应中断，由于水库水位低导致水力发电量减少。该项目是格兰瑟姆研究所（伦敦经济学院）、非洲地球系统科学合作中心（内罗毕大学）、博茨瓦纳技术研究和创新研究所以及巴罗茨兰大学（赞比亚）之间的一个伙伴关系，非洲中小企业被视为对增长和繁荣至关重要，但它们面临着许多挑战，包括与气候有关的基本活动中断。然而，这些影响的记录往往很差，经济影响的证据基础也很薄弱。这项研究是及时和紧迫的;在所有三种情况下，都需要实时/快速评估，因为回顾性研究存在回忆偏倚。该研究计划于2016年4月开始，跟踪影响和反应，直到2017年2月，对EN影响，机构反应和学习进行重复调查。我们确定了三个主要目标：1）记录2015-16 EN.2期间和之后的水文影响和水资源管理响应。2）评估EN.3引起的干扰和缓解措施对中小企业的近期和持续社会经济影响。3）检查极端气候干扰期间影响风险认知和行为变化的因素。所有三个目标都涉及重要的知识差距，也旨在产生证据和新的见解，为政策和实践提供信息，以支持更有效的气候风险管理。该项目旨在通过在学科（水文学、气候学）和跨学科环境期刊上发表学术论文，发挥作用。我们还将在相关的国家和区域论坛上发表演讲，并向灾害管理机构提出关键见解。我们将探索通过与本次电话会议支持的其他项目联合合作（研讨会、活动）来扩大产出的机会。研究计划和计划-该工作由18个月内的六个主要阶段组成;1）根据网络报告和当地媒体对EN影响进行范围界定，并辅以利益相关者磋商，以商定研究地点和采样策略。2016年4月至5月2）设计调查和访谈问题，确定关键受访者和中小企业。2016年5月-6月3日）第一次调查和采访。2016年7月至8月4日）数据录入、转录和分析。2016年9月至12月5日）重复修订调查和后续访谈（学习评估）。2016年12月至2017年2月6日）完成分析和撰写。2017年3月至9月将在整个研究期间开展传播活动，包括在每个国家举办一次小型的中期项目利益攸关方活动和最后一次传播活动。拟议的工作旨在整合研究期间在关键点收集的背景信息、生物物理数据、访谈和调查。这项工作将为三个与干旱和洪水影响途径和损害有关的欧洲国家提供严格的基线证据。强有力的损害证据对于计算减少灾害风险方案和适应措施的成本至关重要，并有助于政府和发展行为体采取有针对性的行动。对水/灾害管理和中小企业应对的深入了解以及对风险认知和学习的后续评估，将使我们能够提出关于备灾和应对的建议（哪些措施有效;为什么有效、在哪里有效以及何时有效），并将这些建议提供给研究、实践和政策界。

项目成果

Climate risks to hydropower supply in eastern and southern Africa

东部和南部非洲水力发电面临的气候风险

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Conway D