Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)

降低理解开发应用模型 (UMFULA) 的不确定性

• 批准号: NE/M020398/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 110.47万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM020398%2F1
• 关键词: Uncertainty; reduction; Models; Understanding; deveLopment

Central and Southern Africa (C&SA) exemplifies the issues that FCFA aims to address: a complex mix of remote and regional climate drivers that challenge conventional climate model simulations, high levels of poorly simulated multi-year climate variability, an extremely low level of investment in climate science relative even to other parts of Africa but particularly West Africa; high physical and socio-economic exposure to climate that projections indicate may become drier and more variable in the future; and low adaptive capacity resulting in decision-making and medium-term planning that is inhibited by significant political, institutional and economic barriers. Meanwhile economic growth and significant infrastructure planning is taking place within C&SA in the absence of adequate climate information.Deficient understanding of many key climate features in C&SA is one barrier to the integration of climate information into decision-making. UMFULA will provide a step-change in climate science in C&SA. Our objectives include: (i) fundamental research into key climate processes over C&SA and how these are dealt with in models; (ii) a process-based evaluation to determine how models invoke change and whether that change is credible; (iii) production of novel climate products (Work Packages WP1-2) encompassing convection permitting and very high resolution (c4 km) ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations that will reveal processes of high impact events and as yet unexplored complexities of the climate change signal. We will also focus on neglected but critical elements of the circulation such as the links between C&SA and the role of local features including the Angolan Low, Botswana anticyclone, Angola/Benguela Frontal Zone, and the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge. Based on this research and through co-production with stakeholders we will generate improved and streamlined climate information for decision-makers (WP3).We will use a deliberative and participatory methodology to test findings from FCFA pillars 1 and 2 with stakeholders based on deep engagement in two contrasting case studies: the Rufiji river basin in Tanzania, and sub-national decision-making in Malawi. They are carefully selected as exemplars of multi-sector, multi-stakeholder, and multi-scale decision situations which can be compared for transferable lessons on the effective use of climate services.In-depth understanding of decision-making contexts, including political economy, theories of institutional change, and individual motivation from behavioural sciences will inform how to tailor and target climate projections for most effective use (WP4). The case study areas (WP5-6) will test these findings through a co-produced framework of C&SA-appropriate decision-making under climate uncertainty to identify robust climate services-informed intervention pathways (portfolios of policies and investments that could work well over a broad range of climatic and socio-economic futures). Our Capstone Work Package (WP7), and major outcome, will be the synthesis of best decision-making models and appraisal methods that are transferable in the African context and enable effective use of climate information in medium-term decision-making.The seven UMFULA Work Packages cut across the three FCFA pillars to ensure maximum complementarity and integration. We are a consortium with world-leading expertise in climate science, decision science and adaptation research and practice, together with stakeholder networks and strong, long-standing relationships in C&SA. We comprise 5 UK and 13 African institutions.

中非和南部非洲（C&SA）体现了FCFA旨在解决的问题：挑战传统气候模式模拟的远程和区域气候驱动因素的复杂组合，对多年气候变率的模拟水平很高，与非洲其他地区（尤其是西非）相比，气候科学投资水平极低；高度的自然和社会经济气候暴露，预估表明未来气候可能变得更加干燥和更加多变；适应能力低下导致决策和中期规划受到重大政治、体制和经济障碍的抑制。与此同时，在缺乏足够气候信息的情况下，C&SA内部正在进行经济增长和重大基础设施规划。缺乏对C&SA中许多关键气候特征的理解是将气候信息整合到决策中的一个障碍。UMFULA将为C&SA的气候科学提供一个阶段性的变化。我们的目标包括：(i)对C&SA的关键气候过程进行基础研究，以及如何在模型中处理这些过程；（ii）基于过程的评估，以确定模型如何引发变化以及该变化是否可信；（iii）生产新的气候产品（工作包WP1-2），包括对流允许和非常高分辨率（c4公里）的海洋-大气耦合模拟，这些模拟将揭示高影响事件的过程和尚未探索的气候变化信号的复杂性。我们还将关注环流中被忽视但至关重要的因素，如C&SA与当地特征（包括安哥拉低压、博茨瓦纳反气旋、安哥拉/本格拉锋区和塞舌尔-查戈斯温跃层脊）之间的联系。在这项研究的基础上，通过与利益攸关方的合作，我们将为决策者提供改进和简化的气候信息（WP3）。我们将采用审议和参与式方法，在深入参与坦桑尼亚鲁菲济河流域和马拉维次国家决策两个对比案例研究的基础上，与利益攸关方检验FCFA支柱1和支柱2的研究结果。它们经过精心挑选，作为多部门、多利益相关者和多尺度决策情况的范例，可以进行比较，以获得有效利用气候服务的可转移经验。深入了解决策环境，包括政治经济学、制度变迁理论和行为科学中的个人动机，将为如何最有效地利用气候预测提供信息（WP4）。案例研究领域（WP5-6）将通过共同制定的气候不确定性下适合c&sa的决策框架来检验这些发现，以确定基于气候服务的稳健干预途径（在广泛的气候和社会经济未来范围内行之有效的政策和投资组合）。我们的“顶点工作包”（WP7）及其主要成果将是综合最佳决策模型和评估方法，这些模型和方法可在非洲环境中转移，并能在中期决策中有效利用气候信息。联卢基金的七个工作包跨越了联卢基金的三个支柱，以确保最大限度地相互补充和融合。我们是一个在气候科学、决策科学和适应研究与实践方面拥有世界领先专业知识的联盟，在C&SA拥有利益相关者网络和强大的长期合作关系。我们包括5个英国机构和13个非洲机构。

项目成果

A Regional Project in Support of the SADC Cyber-Infrastructure Framework Implementation: Weather and Climate

支持南部非洲发展共同体网络基础设施框架实施的区域项目：天气和气候

• DOI: 10.5334/dsj-2019-034
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Data Science Journal
• 作者: Bopape M

Understanding the evolution of the 2014-2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006
• 发表时间: 2017-01-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Archer, Emma Rosa Mary;Landman, Willem Adolf;Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
• 通讯作者: Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell

Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin

预测马拉维湖和夏雷河流域未来的可用水量

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Bhave A.

Lake Malawi's threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124671
• 发表时间: 2020-05-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Bhave, Ajay G.;Bulcock, Lauren;Mkwambisi, David
• 通讯作者: Mkwambisi, David

A multicriteria analysis of groundwater development pathways in three river basins in Sub-Saharan Africa

撒哈拉以南非洲三个河流流域地下水开发路径的多标准分析

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.09.010
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Environmental Science & Policy
• 影响因子: 6
• 作者: Bellwood-Howard I