Hydro-JULES: Next generation land surface and hydrological prediction

项目的主要成果将是建立一个世界领先的陆地水文综合模型，从全球天气和当地降雨量到陆地水文系统，再到洪水泛滥评估及其后果。Hydro-JULES模型及其相关数据集将使英国科学能够解决水文科学中的突出研究问题，并将提供国家资源来支持Hydro-JULES项目及其他项目的研究。Hydro-JULES将为英国水文和地表社区提供模型和研究基础设施，以解决该领域最紧迫的国际重要研究问题，包括：1。水文系统如何应对当今的气候变异性，以及如何在无测量数据的地点、数据稀少的地区和非静止条件下最好地量化未来气候变化的影响？2.新的观测和建模技术在多大程度上可以提高我们对极端降水，特别是高强度对流降水如何驱动洪水的理解？3.土地使用和土地管理的变化将如何影响地表渗透性、土壤蓄水、径流、河流流量和洪水泛滥？4.气候变化导致河流、洪积、沿海和地下水泛滥的综合概率是多少，洪水风险估计的综合方法能否更有效地量化这些风险？5.生物地球化学和养分循环将如何应对当前和未来的水文循环变异，特别是在气候和土地覆盖不断变化的情况下？6.在何种程度上可以同化观测到的水文状态和通量（例如，土壤湿度和水流）改进水文和气象预测，在什么时间尺度上？7.大尺度水文预测的不确定性是否可以归因于特定的水文过程，以便针对未来基于过程的研究？8.接地系统组件的灵敏度是多少（例如，（a）在水文循环变化方面，气候变化（包括植被、碳循环、气溶胶、陆地冰、海冰、海洋环流和海洋地球化学）的影响;以及在地球系统模型中加强陆地水文的代表性是否有助于限制对这种变化的反应？

The major project outcome will be a world-leading integrated terrestrial hydrological model that goes from global weather and local rainfall through the terrestrial hydrological system to flood inundation assessments and their consequent impacts. The Hydro-JULES model and its associated datasets will enable UK science to tackle outstanding research questions in hydrological science and will provide a national resource to support research both specific to the Hydro-JULES project and beyond. Hydro-JULES will provide the UK hydrological and land-surface communities with the model and research infrastructure to tackle the most pressing internationally-important research questions in this field, which include:1. How do hydrological systems respond to present-day climate variability and how can the impacts of future climate change best be quantified in ungauged locations, in data-sparse regions and under non-stationary conditions?2. To what extent can new observational and modelling techniques improve our understanding of how extreme precipitation, especially high-intensity convective precipitation, drives flooding?3. How will changes in land-use and land management affect surface permeability, soil water storage, runoff, river flows and flood inundation?4. What are the combined probabilities of fluvial, pluvial, coastal and groundwater flooding in response to changes in climate, and can a coupled approach to flood risk estimation quantify those risks more effectively?5. How will biogeochemical and nutrient cycles respond to current and future variability in the hydrological cycle, especially under conditions of changing climate and land-cover?6. To what extent can assimilation of observed hydrological states and fluxes (e.g., soil moisture and stream flow) improve hydrological and meteorological predictions, and on what time-scales?7. Can uncertainty in large-scale hydrological predictions be attributed to specific hydrological processes in order to target future process-based research?8. What is the sensitivity of Earth system components (e.g., vegetation, carbon cycle, aerosols, land ice, sea ice, ocean circulation and biogeochemistry) to changes in the hydrological cycle; and can enhanced representation of terrestrial hydrology in Earth system models help constrain responses to such changes?