Actively anticipating the unintended consequences on air quality of future public policies (ANTICIPATE)

英国的公共政策在近期和远期都会对环境、经济、社会和政治产生重大影响，并对未来几年产生潜在影响。因此，政策决定必须能够适应未来各种各样的情况，因此需要在单一部门的范围之外，在国家和地方政府的所有各级采取综合办法进行政策评估。预计将满足这一需求，通过提高对预期影响的核心领域之外的积极和消极后果的认识，有助于更有力和有弹性的政策制定。英国政府认为，空气质量差是“英国公众健康面临的最大环境风险”。除了人类健康，空气污染对自然环境和经济也有更广泛的影响。《清洁空气战略》草案概述了通过减少英国空气污染、改善环境和实现经济增长来应对这一公共卫生挑战的雄心。认识到多个相互关联的部门和跨界关系，其战略目标明确与三个核心政府战略：英国工业战略、清洁增长战略和25年环境计划共同实施。“预期”将对从这些主要政府战略中选出的四项政策以及一项关键的卫生战略，即NHS长期计划，进行深入和系统的分析。在与决策者进行范围界定讨论之后，将进行水平扫描，以确定合适的政策，即那些处于发展早期阶段并可能对空气质量产生影响的政策。我们的目标是纳入范围广泛的政策，从那些与空气质量有明显联系的政策到那些影响不太明显的政策，并包括以国家和地方为重点的政策。就每项选定的政策，我们会举办工作坊，邀请政策分析人士、持份者和空气质素研究人员参与，探讨政策建议及其对空气质素的潜在影响（可能是有害的，也可能是有益的，或者两者兼而有之），重点是找出以前未被注意或强调的影响。讲习班还将确定与影响空气质量的其他政策的协同作用和冲突。通过这些讲习班，预测将研究社会科学工具和技术的新应用，以便在评估阶段重新思考和改进预期的政策想法。这一过程将建立一个多元化、跨学科的利益相关者网络，将广泛的观点和专业知识应用于政策，探讨实施情况、可能的结果、以及可能减轻不利影响和实现有益结果的可能性。研讨会可能会揭示问题和证据差距，将与从事清洁空气计划的其他研究人员分享，并更广泛地使学术研究界作出回应。一套侧重于每项政策探索结论的简报文件将主动传播给来自英国政策和研究领域的利益相关者。在整个项目中，将对活动进行监测和评价，从而能够在随后的迭代中改进该过程，并为如何应用有效的政策探索过程提供指导。项目结束时将编制一份手册，就如何适当使用评估未来政策所涉问题的方法提供指导，弥合学术研究和政策拟订之间的差距。它将以多种形式提供，以确保从其他学者到地方和国家决策者等一系列潜在受益者都能获得它。

UK public policies have significant environmental, economic, social and political consequences over both near and distant time horizons, with potential impacts for years to come. Policy decisions are therefore required to be resilient to a wide range of future scenarios, necessitating an integrated approach to policy appraisal beyond the confines of single Departments, and across all tiers of national and local Government. ANTICIPATE will address this need, contributing to more robust and resilient policy making through improved awareness of the positive and negative consequences outwith the core areas of intended impact. Poor air quality is considered by the UK Government to be "the largest environmental risk to public health in the UK". As well as human health, air pollution also has wider implications for the natural environment and for the economy. The draft Clean Air Strategy outlines ambitions for tackling this public health challenge by reducing UK air pollution, improving the environment and achieving economic growth. In recognition of the multiple interrelated sectors and transboundary relationships, its strategic goals are explicitly aligned for co-delivery with three core Government strategies: UK Industrial Strategy, Clean Growth Strategy, and 25 Year Environment Plan.ANTICIPATE will enable an in-depth and systems based analysis of four policies selected from these headline Government Strategies, as well as a key health strategy, the NHS Long Term Plan. A horizon scanning exercise, followed by scoping discussions with policy makers, will be used to identify suitable policies, that is, those that are at an early stage in development and that are likely to have implications for air quality. We will aim to include a broad range of policies, from those with clear links to air quality to those whose impact is less obvious, and include both nationally and locally focused ones. For each of the selected policies, workshops will be organised with participation from policy analysts, stakeholders, and air quality researchers to explore the policy proposals and their potential impacts on air quality, either perverse or beneficial or both, with an emphasis on identifying implications that had previously been unremarked or under emphasised. The workshops will also identify synergies and conflicts with other policies with implications for air quality. Through these workshops, ANTICIPATE will investigate novel applications of social science tools and techniques to enable rethinking and improvement of prospective policy ideas at the appraisal stage. The process will build a diverse, interdisciplinary network of stakeholders to apply a wide range of perspectives and expertise to the policies, probing implementation, possible outcomes, and the potential mitigation of adverse impacts and realisation of beneficial outcomes. The workshops may reveal issues and evidence gaps which will be shared with other researchers engaged in the Clean Air Programme and more widely to enable the academic research community to respond. A set of briefing papers focused on the conclusions from each individual policy exploration will be proactively disseminated to stakeholders from across the UK policy and research landscape.Throughout the project, activities will be monitored and evaluated, enabling improvement of the process on subsequent iterations as well as feeding into the production of guidance on applying an effective policy exploration process. At the end of the project a Manual will be produced providing guidance on appropriate use of methods for assessing the implications of future policy, bridging the gap between academic research and policy formulation. This will be available in multiple formats to ensure it is accessible to a range of potential beneficiaries ranging from other academics to local and national decision makers.