Assessing Statistical models of Temporary River Intermittence for Decision makers (ASTRID)

临时性河流（TRs）是景观的动态特征，在水文和陆地状态之间过渡，提供一系列栖息地和生态系统服务。它们对生态多样性、养分处理和水资源管理十分重要，并受到气候变化和当地人类活动压力的不利影响。尽管它们很重要，在水源和地下水流域很可能普遍存在，而且干旱是生态多样性的主要决定因素，但它们在监测网络和绘图中的代表性不足。此外，在传统的测量流量或网络收缩数据集存在的地方，他们忽略了识别积水作为一个独特的和生态上重要的栖息地。缺乏数据意味着对联合王国TR的数量、分布和特征了解不足。因此，有必要绘制贸易代表的空间范围图，以与决策者相关的方式量化其行为，并促进以最佳方式利用资源进行监测。该项目旨在通过三个目标来满足这些需求：1）让利益攸关方参与共同设计与决策者相关的指标; 2）通过培训和验证对联合王国登记册中的不合格率进行统计建模; 3）绘制联合王国登记册中的不合格率特征。在工作包1（WP 1）中，核心活动是一个研讨会，以使主要利益相关者，特别是负责TR管理决策的环境署水资源水文学家，参与项目的方向和有用交付成果的详细设计。一个文献综述，以建立国家的最先进的建模能力的TR将提供一个简短的概要。在工作包2（WP 2）中，将收集和预处理英国和法国的水文状态数据以及降雨、地质、地形、河流流量等自变量。将评估与利益攸关方讨论中确定的用于估计韧性指标的统计模型，包括参数和非参数方法，并进行不确定性分析以评估模型性能。在实现第三个目标时，WP 3将利用敏感性分析探讨选定模型对未监测集水区的可移植性。可验证性将包括整个英国TR的估计不确定性指标、跨越多个置信度情景的层次图和不确定性分析的总结报告。 知识交流活动将针对建模确定为数据收集优先事项的区域的两个不同的利益攸关方群体。将与决策者分享和讨论地图和数据集，以征求对适合热带雨林的干旱和水资源评估的下一步措施的意见。其次，将邀请地方利益团体利用苏黎世大学现有的公民科学应用程序CrowdWater参与数据收集活动。将举办两个讲习班，每个优先领域各一个，上午和下午的议程将专门针对两组利益攸关方。研究结果将发表在一份高影响力的期刊上，并在两次学术会议上发表。第一个项目以国家为重点，将使生态学家、水文生态学家和河流管理者能够参与TRs的研究和管理。第二个会议将是欧洲地球科学联盟大会，具有国际重点。

Temporary rivers (TRs) are dynamic features of the landscape that transition between hydrological and terrestrial states, providing a range of habitats and ecosystem services. They are important for ecological diversity, nutrient processing and water resources management and adversely impacted by the pressures of climate change and local anthropogenic activities. Despite their importance, their likely prevalence in headwaters and groundwater-fed catchments, and the role of drying as the primary determinant in ecological diversity, they are underrepresented in monitoring networks and mapping. Furthermore, where traditional datasets of gauged flows or network contraction exist, they overlook the identification of ponded water as a distinct and ecologically important habitat. The lack of data means that there is an inadequate understanding of the number of TRs in the UK, their distribution and characteristics. There is therefore a need to map the spatial extent of TRs, to quantify their behaviour in a way that is relevant for decision makers, and to promote monitoring with optimal use of resources. This project aims to address these needs with three objectives: 1) Engage stakeholders in co-designing metrics relevant for decision-makers; 2) Statistical modelling of intermittence in UK TRs through training and validating; 3) Mapping the characteristics of intermittence in UK TRs.Each objective will be delivered by a work package. In Work Package 1 (WP1) the core activity is a workshop to allow key stakeholders, most notably Environment Agency water resource hydrologists responsible for decision making on the management of TRs, to engage in the direction of the project and the detailed design of useful deliverables. A literature review to establish the state-of-the-art of modelling intermittence on TRs will be delivered as a brief synopsis. In Work Package 2 (WP2), hydrological state data in England and France, and independent variables including rainfall, geology, topography, river flow will be collected and pre-processed. Statistical models, including parametric and non-parametric approaches, for estimating metrics of intermittence identified in discussion with the stakeholders will be assessed, and uncertainty analysis conducted to assess model performance. In addressing the third objective, WP3 will explore the transferability of selected models to unmonitored catchments using sensitivity analysis. Deliverables will comprise estimated intermittence metrics for TRs throughout the UK, hierarchy maps spanning a number of confidence scenarios and a summary report of the uncertainty analysis. Knowledge exchange activities will target two distinct groups of stakeholders in regions identified by the modelling as priorities for data collection. Maps and datasets will be shared and discussed with decision makers to seek views on the next steps for TR-appropriate drought and water resource assessment. Secondly, local interest groups will be invited to engage in data collection activities using the existing University of Zurich citizen science app, CrowdWater. Two workshops, one in each priority area will take place, with morning and afternoon agendas tailored to the two groups of stakeholders. Research findings will be published in a high impact journal, and presented at two academic meetings. The first, with a national focus, will enable engagement with ecologists, hydroecologists and river managers with an interest in the study and management of TRs. The second, with an international focus, will be the General Assembly of the European Geoscience Union.