Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather

北极地区正在经历着巨大的变化，无论是在大气、海洋、冰还是陆地上。北极低层大气的变暖速度是全球平均速度的两倍多，北极海冰和格陵兰冰盖在过去30年里加速融化。值得注意的海洋变化包括波弗特环流的变新鲜，以及巴伦支海和北冰洋东部的“大西洋化”。如此深刻的环境变化可能会对全球产生影响——人们常说，“北极发生的事情不会留在北极”。过去的研究表明，北极的放大原则上可以影响欧洲的气候和极端天气，但目前还缺乏一个如何以及为什么影响的清晰图景。2019年政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）关于海洋和冰冻圈的特别报告得出结论：“北极海冰的变化有可能影响中纬度天气，但对特定天气类型的这种影响的检测置信度很低”。ArctiCONNECT汇集了气候动力学、极地和亚极地海洋学以及极端天气方面的专家，通过一个创新和综合的研究项目，将理论、不同复杂性的模型和观测联系起来，从而改变对加速北极变暖对欧洲气候和极端天气影响的理解。它将（一）揭示北极对欧洲影响的大气和海洋机制；（ii）确定最先进的气候模式模拟北极到欧洲实际遥相关的能力；（iii）量化并了解北极变暖对预估的欧洲极端天气变化和对社会造成的危害的贡献。

The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types". ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.