Quantifying the Impact of Extreme Storms on Slope Erosion: Improving our Capacity to Forecast Erosion Hazards

我们已经在经历气候变化的影响。近年来，更强烈的风暴，特别是在北欧、中欧和东欧、美洲、南亚和东亚，导致了极端侵蚀事件的增加。例如，大西洋飓风的尾巴第一次袭击了欧洲（如埃莉诺风暴、埃伯哈德风暴）。这些侵蚀危害的影响具有全球重要性，因为它们范围广泛，代价高昂，对资产的脆弱性至关重要。在过去的50年里，世界上近三分之一的可耕地因水土流失而丧失，导致全球GDP每年损失80亿美元。例如，在英国，侵蚀每年造成3.36亿英镑的额外洪水损失，是一个相当大的水污染来源，每年的总成本为2.38亿英镑，每年增加的水处理和排水网络维护成本为1.32亿英镑。它们对道路和电力塔等关键基础设施造成相当大的破坏，占有效沉降保险索赔的25%。在福岛，侵蚀是放射性铯被冲入河流和小溪并最终进入太平洋的主要原因。因此，建立有弹性、可持续的基础设施取决于对未来更极端侵蚀风险的准确预测。然而，目前，河流流域的土壤侵蚀模型在预测极端、高强度风暴的侵蚀率方面表现不佳。几十年来，日本一直在经历这种类型的风暴事件，主要发生在季风季节（所谓的“游击雨”），例如橄榄球世界杯期间的台风海贝思造成了总计150亿美元的损失，造成98人死亡。日本国家地球科学与防灾研究所和筑波大学拥有世界领先的实验室和实地基础设施，以监测这些事件对侵蚀的影响。该项目将这些合作伙伴高度互补的专业知识与利物浦大学最先进的建模工具结合在一起。通过一系列新颖的综合野外降雨模拟和数值实验，该合作伙伴关系将对高强度降雨中侵蚀动力学的控制产生新的认识，并开发更现实的模型，使全球科学家能够更好地预测极端侵蚀事件的影响。我们将共同开发理念、数据集和建模工具，通过本提案的直接活动和建立长期合作伙伴关系，促进在理解高强度侵蚀事件方面迈出重要一步。产出将包括：-对极端、高降雨强度风暴期间侵蚀的科学见解，以及气候预测可能导致的变化-提供急需的侵蚀危害准确预测的定量预测建模框架，可用于评估关键基础设施未来的侵蚀风险-在侵蚀监测和预测方面建立长期的世界领先的伙伴关系。也是与全球研究人员建立新联系和科学发现的跳板

We are already experiencing the impacts of climate change. In recent years, more intense storms, particularly in northern, central and eastern Europe, the Americas and South and East Asia, have led to an increase in extreme erosion events. For example the tails of Atlantic hurricanes have hit Europe for the first time (e.g. Storm Eleanor, Storm Eberhard). The impact of these erosion hazards are of global importance because they are wide ranging, costly and of critical importance to the vulnerability of assets. During the last 50 years nearly one-third of the world's arable land has been lost by erosion, causing an annual cost to global GDP of $8BN. In the UK for example, erosion causes £336M a year in extra flood damage, are a considerable source of water pollution totalling costs of £238M a year, and increase the costs of water treatment and maintenance of drainage networks by £132M a year. They cause considerable damage to critical infrastructure such as roads and electricity pylons, and account for 25% of valid subsidence insurance claims. In Fukushima, erosion is the major cause of wash-off of radiocaesium to rivers and streams, and ultimately to the Pacific Ocean. Thus creating resilient, sustainable infrastructure depends on accurate prediction of the future risks of more extreme erosion hazards. Yet at present, soil erosion models for river catchments perform poorly in predicting erosion rates in extreme, high intensity storms.Japan has been experiencing these types of storm events for many decades, predominantly during the monsoon season, (the so called "guerrilla rains") e.g. Typhoon Hagibis during the Rugby World Cup caused damage totalling >$15BN and killed 98 people. The Japanese National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention and the University of Tsukuba has world-leading laboratory and field infrastructure to monitor the impacts of these events on erosion. This project brings together the highly complementary expertise of these partners with the state-of-the-art modelling tools at the University of Liverpool. Through a set of novel, integrated field, rainfall-simulation and numerical experiments, the partnership will produce novel understanding of the controls of erosion dynamics in high intensity rainfall, and the development of more realistic models that will enable global scientists to better forecast the impacts of extreme erosion events. Together we will develop the ideas, datasets and modelling tools to facilitate a major step-forward in understanding high-magnitude erosion events, both through the direct activities of this proposal, and by creating a long-lasting partnership.The outputs will include:- Scientific insights into erosion during extreme, high rainfall intensity storms, and how this might change as a result of climate projections - A quantitative predictive modelling framework that provides much needed accurate forecasts of erosion hazards, that can be applied to assess future erosion risk to critical infrastructure- A long-lasting world-leading partnership in erosion monitoring and prediction, and a spring-board for new links and scientific discovery with global researchers