Coastal-Oceans in Global Climate Models: Assessment and Analysis (CONGA)

沿海和大陆架海以及海洋边缘是具有巨大社会重要性的区域，例如对渔业和吸收大气中的二氧化碳。此外，它们使人们面临洪水和海岸侵蚀等危险，并且是人们最直接影响海洋环境的地方，例如通过捕鱼和污染。因此，了解气候变化如何影响这些地区至关重要。这种认识通常来自用于大规模预测未来气候变化的全球气候模式。这些模型往往过于粗糙，无法很好地应用于沿海和陆架海，而且往往缺乏这些海洋中活跃的具体过程，特别是潮汐和河流流出。这些模型正在不断改进，鉴于新发布的全球气候模型预测套件支持政府间气候变化专门委员会即将发布的第六次评估报告，现在是时候问：全球气候模型在沿海-海洋中的表现如何？与动态降尺度相比，这种表现如何？动力降尺度是替代直接使用气候模式的常用方法，即使用由气候模式驱动的更精细的全球或区域海洋模式。由于海洋模式的多样性以及沿海和大陆架海的地理多样性，通过一个国际网络，使用一套共同的方法来处理这个问题是适当的。建立一个国际伙伴关系来建立这个，然后发展网络是这个建议的重点。我们首先关注沿海和大陆架海洋物理及其与生物地球化学的关系，这对渔业和水产养殖以及生态系统健康非常重要；比如浮游生物的生长和氧气的供应。我们的目标首先是确定控制沿海和陆架海气候模型性能的关键物理过程，然后我们开发了一套通用分析工具，将模型与这些过程的观测和理论估计进行比较。除此之外，我们的目标是建立一个广泛的海洋建模者国际网络，对沿海和大陆架海洋的气候影响感兴趣。这将通过一系列虚拟和面对面的研讨会来实现，旨在展示项目中开发的方法，并改进在项目24个月期限后继续开展网络的想法。

Coastal and shelf seas and ocean margins are regions of immense societal importance, e.g. for fisheries and drawing down atmospheric CO2. Also they expose people to hazards such as flooding and coastal erosion, and are where people most directly impact the marine environment, e.g. through fishing and pollution. Hence, it is crucially important to understand how climate change effects these regions. This understanding generally comes from the global climate models used to project future climate change on a large scale. These models are often too coarse to be expect to perfume well in coastal and shelf seas, and often lack the specific processes active in these seas, notably tides and river outflows. These models are continually improving and given the newly released suite of global climate model projections supporting the forthcoming sixth assessment report of the Intergovermental Pannel on Climate Change, it is now very timely to ask: how well do global climate models perform in the coastal-ocean and how does this performance compare with dynamical downscaling? Dynamical downscaling is the commonly employed alternative to direct use of climate models, using finer scale global or regional ocean models driven by the climate model. Because of the diversity of ocean models and the geographic diversity of coastal and shelf seas, it is appropriate to address this question through an international network, using a common set of methods. Building an international partnership to establish this, and then develop the network is the focus of this proposal. We start with a focus on coastal and shelf sea physics and its relationship to biogeochemistry, which are important for fisheries and aquaculture, and ecosystem health; for example plankton growth and oxygen availability. We aim first to identify the key physical processes controlling the climate models' performance in the coastal and shelf seas and we then develop a set of common analysis tools to compare models with observations and theoretical estimates for these processes. Alongside this, we aim to build a broad international network of ocean modellers with an interest in climate impacts in coastal and shelf seas. This will arise through a series of workshops - both virtual and in person, which will aim to demonstrate the approaches developed in project and refine ideas for continuing the network beyond 24-month duration of this project.