TIMBER: Managing riverine flood risk & habitat diversity with in-stream wood

由于洪水灾害，特别是极端洪水的频率预计将在未来增加，与河流中木材影响相关的风险也可能会增加。因此，为了有效地管理河流系统中的木材，需要了解和预测木材的存在将如何产生生态效益，以及这些效益如何与其存在相关的风险进行权衡。目前这是不可能的，本项目旨在解决这一重大的知识差距。为了提高对这种利益-风险关系的理解，需要克服知识方面的重大缺陷，包括：(i)缺乏系统地量化木材动力学驱动变量的任何尝试，尽管高分辨率测量技术的迅速发展和演变，但收集数据的类型和方法不一致。这意味着验证风险预测模型的能力有限；以特别的方式进行了研究，从个案研究中得出了许多木材动态成本效益的经验关系。由于经验关系是用来支持管理策略的，因此不清楚这些地点在特定环境之外的全球适用性，这些环境中推导出了这些关系，并且（iii）对洪水事件频率和强度的预测增加将如何增加河流系统中木材构成的风险的理解有限。通过首次将项目合作伙伴的各种技能集合在一起，意味着该网络现在能够解决这些缺陷。该提案借鉴了所有项目合作伙伴的经验和专业知识，他们在不同的全球流域工作，代表不同的水文气候，并实施不同的管理战略。通过这样做，该网络将提供一个全球衍生和全球适用的标准化方法，以量化河流中木材的影响，并预测当前和未来的风险。该项目将产生6项可交付成果，包括：D1 -完全可搜索的交互式全球数字风险地图集；D2 -一系列新的可直接比较的标准化指标和测量方案，用于对河流中的木材动态进行量化、建模和管理；D3 -系统动力学模型，可用于预测关键管理干预措施和环境变化情景如何影响与河流中木材相关的风险；D4 -发表一系列期刊论文（包括已经商定的《自然评论》文章大纲），向学术界和实践界传播研究成果；D5 -一系列拨款建议，以支持网络未来的可持续发展；D6 -举办一系列活动，进一步将网络的范围扩大到学术界和实践者社区。

As flood hazard, and the frequency of extreme floods in particular, is projected to increase in the future the risks associated with the impact of wood in rivers is also likely set to increase. Thus, in order effectively manage wood in river systems there is a need to understand and predict how the presence of wood will produce ecological benefits and how these benefits trade-off against the risks associated with its presence. This is not currently possible and this project seeks to address this significant knowledge gap. In order to improve understanding of this benefit-risk relationship there is a need to overcome major deficiencies in knowledge, including: (i) a lack of any attempt to systematically quantify the driving variables in wood dynamics and despite the rapid development and evolution of high-resolution measuring technologies there are inconsistencies in the type and methods of data collected. This means that there is limited capacity to validate predictive models of risk; (ii) research has been undertaken in an ad hoc manner and so many of the empirical relationships of the cost-benefits of wood dynamics have been drawn from case studies. Since the empirical relationships are used to underpin management strategies it is unclear of the global applicability of these sites beyond specific environments in which the relationships were derived, and (iii) limited understanding of how predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of flood events will serve to increase the risks posed by wood in river systems. By bringing the diverse skill set of the project partners together for the first time means that this network is now in a position to address these deficiencies. This proposal draws on the experience and expertise of all project partners who work across different global catchments representative of different hydroclimates and operationalise different management strategies. By doing this the network will deliver a globally derived and globally applicable standardised approach to both quantifying the impact of, and predicating current and future risks posed by, wood in rivers. The project will outcome 6 deliverables, including: D1 - A fully searchable interactive global digital risk atlas; D2 - A new series of directly comparable, standardised metrics and measuring protocols for quantifying, modelling and managing wood dynamics in rivers; D3 - A systems dynamics model which can be used to predict how key management interventions and environmental change scenarios affect risk associated with wood in rivers; D4 - A series of journal papers (included already outline agreed Nature Reviews article) to disseminate research findings to the academic and practitioner community; D5 - A series of funding proposals to underpin future sustainability of the network; and D6 - A series of events to further expand the scope of the network to the academic and practitioner communities.