Impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of Inuit Arctic food systems

该项目的目的是查明和分析因努伊特人区域中心因气候变化而导致目前和未来粮食不安全的原因。将通过以下目标审查气候和人为的各种粮食不安全敏感性：a）通过应用“背景脆弱性”方法，制定新的方法，更好地理解和定性粮食不安全及其根源（奥布莱恩等人，2007; Clark等人，B）了解和描述气候和非气候脆弱性对区域因纽特人人口中心粮食不安全的影响（如兰金湾），以及可能产生的任何积极反馈机制。c）根据目标a）和B），审查社区未来面对未来气候变化对粮食安全影响的潜在脆弱性和适应能力，方法：评估粮食安全的关键脆弱性包括年龄、性别、收入、社会资本、对传统方法（即狩猎、觅食、捕鱼）的依赖程度、土著知识和工资经济。为了收集这些方面的数据，本项目提出了以下方法：1.对已发表的文献进行系统审查（同行审查，灰色），以确定和描述关于整个北极圈土著人口粮食不安全的知识状况，特别注意气候因素的作用。构建一个问卷框架，通过个人访谈进行补充，这将检查关键的粮食安全敏感性的普遍性及其各自对粮食不安全的影响，并记录和描述影响粮食系统的各种因素。样本量至少占总人口的7%-目标是至少300名受试者-并调查一系列人口统计数据，按年龄，性别，收入和社会资本细分。在社区规模的利益相关者研讨会上实施参与式情景规划，全球环流模型（GCM）为情景的创建提供信息，以更好地理解土著人口中心的决策网络和本地适应能力。在自然环境和气候变化环境之间日益复杂和多方面的关系中，由于气候未来的不确定性，从来没有一个更关键的需要，以了解即将到来的障碍的范围，社会，政治和经济弹性在加拿大的远北（北极理事会，2016）。尽管国家、区域和地方制定了应对食物不安全和评估北极和亚北极地区自然和人为食物系统脆弱性的战略，但许多社区面临的风险仍在逐步增加（NFSC，2016）。截至2016年，努纳武特地区总人口37，315人中有69%被列为粮食不安全-比全国其他地区高出61%（NFSC，2016; NBS，2016）。尽管如此，与世界其他地区相比，对这一问题的研究仍然有限，主要集中在较小的、更孤立的努纳武特社区（福特，2009年; Prno等人，2011年）。很少有论文研究了可能影响粮食安全率的关键因素，因此，在更大，人口更多的北极/亚北极定居点，或者甚至假设当前气候变化对粮食安全的未来影响。为了有效地鼓励和维持极地和次极地地区所有社会和人口要素对粮食短缺的容忍和适应能力，解决这一研究差距至关重要。

This project aims to identify and characterise the causal factors determining present-day and potentialfuture vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change in regional Inuit centres. Variousexposure-sensitivities, both climatic and anthropogenic, will be examined through the followingobjectives: -a) Develop novel approaches to better understand and qualify food insecurity, and its root causes, throughthe application of a 'contextual vulnerability' approach (O'Brien et al., 2007; Clark et al., 2016).b) Understand and characterize the influence of climatic and non-climatic vulnerability to food insecurityat a regional Inuit population centre (e.g. Rankin Inlet), and the positive feedback mechanisms, if any,that may result.c) Examine the potential future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities to future climatechange impacts on food security, drawing upon objectives a) and b), and integrating climate scenariosd) Identify and examine opportunities for adaptation to moderate the effects of climate change impacts onfood securityMethodology:Key vulnerabilities against which food security will be assessed include age, gender, income, socialcapital, level of dependence upon traditional methods (i.e. hunting, foraging, fishing), indigenousknowledge, and wage-based economy. In order to collect data in these areas, this project proposes thefollowing methods:1. Systematic review of published literature (peer reviewed, grey) to identify and characterize thestate of knowledge on food insecurity for indigenous populations across the circumpolar north,with particular attention to the role of climatic factors.2. Construct a questionnaire framework, augmented by individual interviews, which will examinethe prevalence of key exposure-sensitivities and their respective impact upon food insecurity,and document and characterize various factors affecting food systems. Sample size is intendedto account for a minimum 7% of the total population - aiming for at least 300 subjects - andsurvey a range of demographics, broken down on age, gender, income and social capital.3. Implement participatory scenario planning at community-scale stakeholder workshops, withglobal circulation models (GCM) informing the creation of scenarios, to develop a greaterunderstanding of decision-making networks and localised adaptive capacity within theindigenous population centres.In developing increasingly complex and multi-faceted relationships between natural and anthropogenicenvironments, courtesy of an ever-more uncertain climatic future, there has never been a more criticalneed to understand the scope of forthcoming obstacles to social, political and economic resilience inCanada's Far North (Arctic Council, 2016). Despite national, regional and local strategies to combat foodinsecurity and assess the fragility of natural and anthropogenic food systems across the Arctic andSubarctic, many communities are subject to progressively increasing risk (NFSC, 2016). As of 2016, 69%of a total population of 37,315 in Nunavut territory were classified as food insecure - a value 61% greaterthan the remainder of the nation (NFSC, 2016; NBS, 2016). In spite of this, research into this disparityhas been limited as compared with other areas of the world, and has primarily focused upon smaller, moreisolated Nunavut communities (Ford, 2009; Prno et al., 2011). Few papers have examined the key factorsthat may affect rates of food security, and therefore health, in larger, more populous Arctic/Subarcticsettlements, or gone so far as to hypothesise the future implications of current climate change scenarioson food security. In order to effectively encourage and sustain resilienceand adaptive capacity over food scarcity across the entire range of social and demographic elementswithin the polar and sub-polar regions, addressing this research gap is of critical importance.