The role of transnational non-state initiatives in polycentric climate governance

随着2015年具有里程碑意义的《巴黎协定》，国际社会同意将社会置于脱碳道路上，目标是将全球平均气温与工业化前水平相比的上升幅度控制在2摄氏度以下，并进一步努力将气温上升幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以下（UNFCCC，2015年）。为了达到这些国际商定的边界，必须尽快缩小排放差距，正如最新的联合国排放差距报告（UNEP，2018）所敦促的那样。这需要快速、深入和全社会的努力来实现脱碳，例如技术创新、大胆投资、对气候系统的深刻科学理解，以及至关重要的非国家和次国家行为体以及政府的雄心勃勃的行动。这一认识体现在《巴黎协定》的文本中。它不仅抓住了国家（政府）行为者的核心作用，也抓住了非国家行为者在脱碳中的核心作用。至关重要的是，《联合国气候变化框架公约》（《气候公约》）寻求加快发展过去十年中缓慢出现的更加复杂、多层次和多中心的气候治理格局。非国家行为者的自愿倡议，包括承诺脱碳的企业、城市和民间社会组织等跨国行为者，都围绕着《联合国气候变化框架公约》推动的多边进程。参与是多样化的，跨越在线和离线参与。这些举措包括报告减排目标、向专家会议提供技术投入或向多利益攸关方伙伴关系提供书面资料。虽然现有的文献对这些新的进程提供了一个洞察非国家跨国行为者在多边气候外交的正式参与，通过自愿跨国非国家倡议的气候治理的精确工作的知识仍然非常稀少。该研究项目旨在揭示跨国和多边治理进程之间的关系。特别是，使用诺贝尔奖获得者，林奥斯特罗姆的多中心理论作为一个解释框架，本文的目的是了解自愿的非国家跨国倡议的出现和它们之间的联系在UNFCCC的背景下。该项目的目标将采用一种新的定性和定量方法相结合的三步办法。首先，它将利用网络分析，提供1992年至2020年围绕《气候公约》开展的非国家自愿倡议的全面情况;其次，它将进行案例研究和定量分析，以确定《气候公约》与这些倡议之间的联系类型，从而了解非国家行为者参与的“真实的”性质;第三，它将涉及半结构化的访谈，以调查这些行为者自愿参与《气候公约》进程的动机。实证工作将推进多中心理论，并为全球气候政策中利益相关者的战略协调提供实用的政策相关见解。通过将网络分析应用于全球气候治理的大型数据集，并通过在全球层面上实证检验多中心理论的基本假设，将实现方法和理论上的进步。在实践层面上，将为非国家行为者和/或《气候公约》的战略协调汲取经验教训。最终，将对这些举措的持久性和有效性以及整体多中心气候制度的持久性和有效性做出更好的预测，以产生快速和完全脱碳社会所需的迫切变化。

With the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015, the international community agreed to put society on a decarbonisation path, with the goal to keep the rise in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and to advance efforts to curb the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius (UNFCCC, 2015). To meet these internationally agreed boundaries, the emissions gap must be closed as rapidly as possible, as urged in the latest UN Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2018). This requires rapid, deep and society-wide efforts engendering decarbonisation, such as technological innovation, bold investments, a deep scientific understanding of the climate system and, crucially, ambitious action by non-state and subnational actors as well as governments. This realisation is anchored in the text of the Paris Agreement. It captures the central role not only of state (government) actors, but also non-state actors in decarbonisation. Crucially, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seeks to accelerate the development of a more complex, multi-levelled and polycentric landscape of climate governance that has slowly emerged over the last decade. Voluntary initiatives by non-state actors, involving transnational actors such as businesses, cities, and civil society organisations pledging to decarbonise, have clustered around the multilateral process facilitated by the UNFCCC. The engagement is diverse and spans online as well as offline participation. The initiatives include reporting of emissions reduction targets, technical contributions to expert meetings or written submissions to inform multi-stakeholder partnerships. While the existing literature on these novel processes offers an insight into the formal involvement of non-state transnational actors in multilateral climate diplomacy, knowledge on the precise working of climate governance through voluntary transnational non-state initiatives is still very sparse. The research project seeks to shed new light on the relationship between transnational and multilateral governance processes. In particular, using Nobel Laureate, Lin Ostrom's polycentric theory as an explanatory framework, the aim of the thesis is to understand the emergence of voluntary non-state transnational initiatives and underlying linkages between them in the context of the UNFCCC. The project aim will adopt a three-step approach, using a novel combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. It will, first, provide a comprehensive map of the landscape of non-state voluntary initiatives clustered around the UNFCCC from 1992 to 2020 by using network analysis; second, it will undertake case studies and quantitative analysis to determine the type of linkages between the UNFCCC and the initiatives to understand the 'real' nature of the engagement of non-state actors; and third, it will involve semi-structured interviews to investigate the motivations of these actors to engage voluntarily in the UNFCCC process. The empirical work will advance polycentric theory as well as provide practical, policy relevant insights for the strategic coordination of stakeholders in global climate policy. Methodological and theoretical advancements will be achieved, by applying network analysis to a large dataset in global climate governance and by empirically testing the underlying assumptions of polycentric theory on a global level. On a practical level, lessons will be derived for strategic coordination by non-state actors and/or the UNFCCC. Ultimately, better predictions will be made on the durability and effectiveness of the initiatives and of the overall polycentric climate regime for engendering the much required changes needed to rapidly and fully decarbonise society.