(Re) Turn to the West: Migration and Democratic Quality in Central and Eastern Europe (Political Sociology)

我即将发表的论文重点关注中东欧的社会汇款——这一理论认为，移居到更民主的西方社会的移民吸收了东道国的规范和行为，然后通过回迁或与留在家乡的朋友和家人的跨境交流，将这些规范和行为转移到原籍社会（Levitt, 1998,2001； Levitt和Lamba-Nieves， 2011）。分析将分两个紧密相连的步骤进行：一是研究目的地的社会汇款创造和国外移徙者对民主规范和行为的吸收，二是研究移徙经验和国外网络对原籍社会的影响。虽然这本身是一个关键问题，但我坚信，这种工作可以非常有益地扩展为三种方式，从而全面和连贯地了解中欧和东欧的移徙与民主之间的联系。首先，我将扩大微观层面对移民对起源政治文化影响的分析，为移民抑制参与和政治声音表达的假设提供宏观层面的检验（Hirschman, 1978, 1993； Anelli和Peri， 2017）。其次，我会退后一步，审视“谁会离开？”和“谁回来了？”——特别关注移民与民主质量之间的反向因果关系，评估移民的政治决定因素以及更标准的经济因素（Hirschman, 1978； Bygnes和Flipo， 2017）。第三，我会继续问那个不可避免的问题：“那又怎样？”，将解释重点放在该地区非自由民粹主义的兴起上，并研究民粹主义政党支持的政治文化（政权态度、政治利益、参与）决定因素；建立这种联系也意味着移民通过其对政治文化的影响而产生间接影响。

My forthcoming thesis focuses on social remittances in CEE - the theory that migrants moving to more democratic Western societies absorb norms and behaviors from their hosts, which they then transfer to their origin societies by way of either return migration or cross-border communication with friends and family left behind (Levitt, 1998, 2001; Levitt and Lamba-Nieves, 2011). The analysis will proceed in two tightly connected steps - one looking at social remittance creation at destination and the absorption of democratic norms and behaviors by migrants abroad, and the other looking at the effects of migration experience and networks abroad in origin societies. While this is a key question in itself, I strongly believe that such work could very usefully be expanded into three ways, altogether generating a full and coherent understanding of the connections between migration and democracy in Central and Eastern Europe. First, I would expand the micro-level analysis of the impact of emigration on political culture at origin, providing a macro-level test of the hypothesis that emigration depresses participation and the expression of political voice (Hirschman, 1978, 1993; Anelli and Peri, 2017). Second, I would take a step back and examine the twin questions of 'who leaves?' and 'who returns?' - with particular focus on the potential of reverse causality between migration and democratic quality, evaluating political determinants of migration along with more standard economic factors (Hirschman, 1978; Bygnes and Flipo, 2017). Third, I would move forward and ask the inevitable 'so what?', placing the explanatory focus on the rise of illiberalpopulism in the region and looking into the political culture (regime attitudes, political interest, participation) determinants of populist party support; establishing such a link would also imply an indirect effect of migration through its effects on political culture.